Neighbourhood on the boil: From Nepal to Pakistan, how political unrest toppled powerful leaders in India's backyard

India is cautiously watching the Gen-Z protests raging across Nepal, which have led to the ouster of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. In just 48 hours, demonstrations triggered by the social media ban have escalated into a full-blown uprising against corruption, with visuals showing mobs torching Parliament, private residences of the President and former prime ministers, as well as the Supreme Court.

While Nepal is still grappling with how to restore normalcy, this is not the first time India has witnessed such large-scale turmoil in its neighbourhood. Over the past five years, almost all major regimes in India’s backyard have been toppled following widespread unrest led by students and the middle class.

With this fresh wave of turbulence, India faces a new geopolitical headache as it scrambles to craft policies to adapt to the new normal. As Nepal uninstalls the Oli government, here’s a look back at how India’s neighbours have been rocked by street violence and the toppling of elected governments.

Pakistan: On April 10, 2022, Imran Khan was ousted as the Prime Minister of Pakistan after his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) lost a controversial trust vote. Pakistan’s National Assembly held the confidence motion during midnight proceedings following a Supreme Court order. The 2022 proceedings marked the first time in Pakistan’s turbulent political history that an elected prime minister was removed through a no-confidence vote. The Opposition secured 174 votes in the 342-member house.

Many observers described this as the shadow work of the Pakistan Army. The no-confidence vote was followed by the election of Shehbaz Sharif as Prime Minister. The Khan-led PTI repeatedly claimed that the U.S. had conspired with the army to remove the popular leader, with Imran Khan calling the no-trust vote an “international conspiracy.”

On March 3, 2024, Shehbaz Sharif returned to power for a second term. At present, although he holds the office of Prime Minister, the prevailing view in diplomatic circles is that Pakistan’s Army Chief, Asim Munir, is the real ruler.

Sri Lanka: A few months later, in July 2022, India witnessed yet another neighbour engulfed in violent clashes—this time, the island nation of Sri Lanka. On July 13, then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee the country after widespread protests against the deepening economic crisis. The 73-year-old leader fled to the Maldives, accompanied by his wife and two security officials.

Soaring inflation, rising unemployment, and acute shortages of food and medicines had sparked angry street demonstrations, largely driven by Sri Lanka’s middle class. The Rajapaksa family was accused of corruption and of pushing the country to the brink of economic collapse. Rajapaksa’s dramatic fall from grace saw protesters storm the Presidential Palace, looting belongings and even swimming in the palace pool. Elsewhere in Colombo, the Prime Minister’s residence was also set ablaze.

Following the turmoil, Sri Lanka held elections in which Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP) was elected President, with Harini Amarasuriya serving as Prime Minister.

Bangladesh: Cut to 2024. On August 5, dramatic visuals emerged from Dhaka as young protesters stormed the official residence of Sheikh Hasina. With reports of her fleeing to India, crowds in the capital went on a rampage, looting everything from sarees and furniture to paintings.

At the heart of Hasina’s ouster was deep resentment over the quota system introduced by her administration for government jobs. The agitations, which lasted for over a month, claimed more than 300 lives. The anti-quota demonstrations soon morphed into a full-blown anti-Hasina movement after troops used brutal force against protesters.

Even though the government eventually scaled back the quota system, the protests persisted for months and ultimately resulted in Hasina’s removal from power. At present, a caretaker government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is in charge, with the Bangladesh Army promising parliamentary elections once the situation stabilizes.

Afghanistan: Though not India’s immediate neighbour, Afghanistan plays a key role in the larger geopolitical picture of the subcontinent. On August 15, 2021, the Taliban recaptured Kabul with little resistance, as disturbing visuals showed U.S. military planes flying out and leaving civilians stranded. Then-President Ashraf Ghani, who had insisted he would not abandon his people, fled the country as Taliban fighters closed in on the capital.

Taliban co-commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar issued a statement after the swift takeover, and soon after, the Taliban declared the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. While New Delhi has not officially recognized the Taliban government, there have been several instances of engagement with Kabul.

The dire situation of women in Afghanistan under Taliban rule has repeatedly drawn international concern and condemnation.