The report further highlighted that various govt schemes for the rural poor have worked well, but the fact that all these schemes aren’t free, it might limit their popularity
PM Modi is still the most popular leader, but the rising tensions between India-Pakistan following the recent Pulwama event can have a political impact depending on how the situation unfolds, CLSA said in a report.
CLSA’s team spent seven days on the road in Uttar Pradesh over the last two weeks and found that Modi remains quite popular on ground across different castes.
“While the SP-BSP combine is a formidable opposition to BJP, the entry of Priyanka Gandhi can take away some vote share from the SP-BSP. If not formal, at least, an informal alliance with the Congress will be required for the combine to work,” it said.
In short, domestic flows will likely reflect these political uncertainties over the next three months, driving the markets lower, it said.
CLSA further added that it will be difficult for BJP to replicate its 2014 success. “Our discussions with various politicians, including those of the BJP, indicate that the BJP would likely win 40-45 seats (out of 80) in UP, on the higher side as against 73 back in 2014,” it said.
Several opinion polls put that number down to 25 on the lower side. PM Modi’s decisive leadership and his relatively clean record on the issues of corruption are the strong points in favour of the BJP.
CLSA’s interactions with potential voters/opinion makers reveal that anti-incumbency is setting in and BJP will need to actively encourage some of its supporters/voters.
Priyanka Gandhi has energised Congress:
There’s a broad consensus that Priyanka Gandhi’s entry in politics has energised Congress workers. There is a possibility of disgruntled party workers/voters from SP, BSP, after the two joined hands, shifting to the Congress, which might help the BJP.
“We understand that the SP-BSP might tie-up with the Congress, at least informally, which could possibly limit the gains for the BJP,” said the report.Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are his own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.