Maharashtra Elections 2024: Mahayuti’s test of resilience, battle of prestige for Maha Aghadi

The Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024 dates were announced by the Election Commission of India on Tuesday. (AP Photo)

The Election Commission of India on Tuesday sounded the poll bugle for what will possibly be the most keenly awaited battle of the year. Assembly elections in Maharashtra will be held in a single phase on November 20, and the results will be declared on November 23, CEC Rajiv Kumar announced on Tuesday.

The announcement of polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand sets the stage for the last round of contests between the BJP-led NDA and the Opposition INDIA bloc this year, and the most crucial after the Lok Sabha elections.

2019 and Beyond: The Story so Far

The polls come after a tectonic shift in the political landscape in the state over the past five years. In the elections held in 2019, the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance bagged 105 and 56 seats, respectively, in the 288-member state Assembly. On the other hand, the NCP bagged 54 seats, the Congress 44, the AIMIM 2 and the MNS 1.

While the Sena-BJP combine comfortably crossed the halfway mark, ties between the decades-old alliance partners soured after Uddhav Thackeray claimed that the BJP reneged on its promise of chief ministership. A prolonged stalemate in the formation of the government ended in November as the Shiv Sena made a somersault to join hands with the NCP and Congress and came to power under the banner of the Maha Vikas Aghadi with Uddhav as CM.

However, Uddhav’s ideological leap took a toll as Eknath Shinde engineered a massive revolt in mid-2022, walking away with a major chunk of party MLAs who quit the MVA and joined hands with the BJP claiming to be the “real” Shiv Sena. Short of numbers, Uddhav resigned just ahead of a floor test, paving the way for the formation of a BJP-Shiv Sena government with Shinde as CM and Devendra Fadnavis as his deputy.

If the Sena split hadn’t caused enough drama already, Ajit Pawar emerged from the towering shadow of his uncle and managed to do a Shinde on Sharad Pawar, splitting the NCP and joining the NDA to become the second Deputy CM of the state.

Sena vs Sena, NCP vs NCP

The elections in Maharashtra this time are unlike any previous electoral contest so far. While Assembly polls held in 2019 or earlier saw a battle between regional behemoths Shiv Sena and NCP other than the BJP-Congress binary, the elections this time will see familiar faces take on former allies under new banners.

The NCP of Sharad Pawar, who has managed to hold the party together and reap dividends from the split caused by his nephew, will take on the new faction of Ajit Pawar. A similar battle will unfold between both factions of the Shiv Sena who will stake claim to the true legacy of party founder Balasaheb Thackeray.

The outcome of the electoral battle between the factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP in key strongholds will also reveal who dominates the popular perception when it comes to the voters. While the Lok Sabha elections gave the MVA a definite edge, the Assembly elections will be a different ball game altogether.

The real INDIA vs NDA test

The Assembly polls in Maharashtra will also see Congress, devastated by the recent loss in Haryana, face a spirited BJP which was losing momentum after the Lok Sabha setback. The win in the Haryana elections, however, breathed new life into the party and renewed hopes of a similar comeback in Maharashtra as well.

Much will also be at stake for the INDIA bloc which made significant gains in the Lok Sabha polls. The elections will test the united Opposition and its ability to carry the momentum from the Lok Sabha into the Assembly polls.

The story that the BJP, on the other hand, will be looking for is one of resilience. Having been blamed for engineering splits and accommodating breakaway factions of the NCP and Shiv Sena in its quest for power, the BJP needs to show it has the grit to hold its own in the fight against old adversaries.

On a national level, a win in Maharashtra would not only consolidate the popularity and acceptance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it would also puncture the narrative of Opposition unity and deal a body blow to the Congress which has sought to position itself as the champions of social justice.