Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why BJP sees an opening in West Bengal because of Sandeshkhali

A file photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has directed criticism towards the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) administration in West Bengal against the backdrop of unfolding events in Sandeshkhali. Accusations have surfaced, linking the regime to allegations of sexual abuse against women, attacks on Enforcement Directorate officials, and alleged land acquisitions masterminded by local TMC leader Shahjahan Sheikh and his associates in the area. The PM questioned the silence of leaders from the Opposition INDIA bloc, which includes the TMC, in addressing these critical issues.

Shahjahan's Arrest Sparks Celebrations Amid Tension

Shahjahan was arrested on February 29 by the West Bengal police in Minakhan, located around 30 kilometers from Sandeshkhali. The televised images of his arrest sparked celebrations in certain sections of Sandeshkhali, with the distribution of sweets and the splashing of vibrant colours reminiscent of an early Holi celebration. Although the event might have indicated the culmination of nearly two months of protests by a section of the local population, the looming Lok Sabha elections ensure that the political cauldron of Sandeshkhali remains simmering, poised to maintain its intensity and significance on the political landscape.

Also Read | 'Crossed all limits': PM Modi slams Mamata's TMC in Bengal over Sandeshkhali horror

Women-Led Protests Pose Challenge to TMC

The protests led by local women, a key constituency of the TMC alongside Muslims, against the alleged assaults committed by Shahjahan and his associates pose a significant challenge to the efforts of the TMC boss in mobilising support ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. Reports suggest that instances of land grabbing and sexual assault attributed to the TMC have led to the disenchantment of women voters in West Bengal, who comprise nearly half of the electorate. A potential change in the voting bloc could severely impact Banerjee's ability to counter the rising BJP in the state.

'Ma, Mati, Manush' Slogan Rings Hollow

Political analysts say that the entire episode serves as a stark testament to disgrace, as voters express profound anger towards the actions of the TMC, a party which has long championed the causes encapsulated by the slogan "Ma, Mati, Manush," symbolising mother, land, and people. This slogan played a key role in securing successive electoral victories for Banerjee, leading to the decline of the once-dominant Left parties in the state. However, in the present context, the resonance of this slogan appears hollow and disconnected from the realities unfolding in Sandeshkhali.

Also Read | How badly will Sandeshkhali hurt Mamata Banerjee in the upcoming elections?

BJP Draws Parallel Between Nandigram and Sandeshkhali

Drawing a parallel with the historic land agitation movement in Nandigram, the BJP has highlighted the echoes between the previous struggle against land acquisition and the ongoing land grab in Sandeshkhali. This juxtaposition, however, has notably perturbed the TMC, with Mamata Banerjee emphasising that the protests against land acquisition in Singur and Nandigram should not be equated with the unfolding events in Sandeshkhali.

Sandeshkhali: A New Epicentre of Land Resistance Emerges

Analysts say much like the narratives of Singur and Nandigram, Sandeshkhali has emerged as a new epicentre of resistance against land encroachment. While the central storyline echoes familiar themes, there has been a shift in the group of characters, with the TMC now wrestling with 'maati' concerns, posing a formidable challenge for the party.

BJP Seizes Opportunity in Sandeshkhali Row

The Sandeshkhali controversy presents an opportunity for the saffron party to challenge the TMC, capitalising on the rising public outrage. Notably, the active involvement of women, staunch supporters of the TMC, in leading the protests, potentially sparking a wider movement across the state. If the BJP effectively amplifies this discontent, it has the potential to significantly reshape the political landscape of West Bengal.

Also Read | Sheikh Shahjahan: From humble driver to controversial TMC strongman, key figure in Sandeshkhali row

Examining Muslim Vote Dynamics

A critical electoral advantage for the ruling party in South Bengal and the entire state hinges on its support from the Muslim community, which accounts for nearly 30 percent of the population. Given the ideological stance of the Saffron party, it is unlikely to garner substantial backing from this demographic. However, if the Muslim vote shifts towards either the Left or the Congress, it could significantly enhance the BJP's electoral prospects, particularly considering the diminishing bases of both the Congress and Left parties over the past decade.  Notably, Sandeshkhali falls within the Basirhat Lok Sabha constituency, where the Muslim population constitutes a significant 46 percent, emphasising the pivotal role of this demographic in shaping electoral outcomes.

Also Read | Bengal Governor Bose hails arrest of TMC leader Shahjahan, expects end to state violence

Corruption Challenges TMC's Welfare Schemes

During her 12-year tenure as Chief Minister, Banerjee spearheaded a series of significant financial benefits and empowerment programs, such as Kanyasree for school-going girls, Rupasree for those entering marriage, and Lakshmir Bhandar for women of all age groups, tailored specifically for women voters. However, over the past seven years, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has been embroiled in numerous corruption allegations, resulting in legal action against several prominent leaders and ministers. Corruption within the local leadership has hindered Banerjee's well-intentioned initiatives from reaching their intended beneficiaries. Women have expressed grievances about not receiving funds under schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar or MGNREGA, alleging that funds are being diverted by TMC leaders midway.

Also Read | Sandeshkhali row: Here's how BJP is keeping Trinamool on its toes

Acid Test for Mamata Ahead of Polls

The failure of the TMC government to promptly address the situation has worsened matters, presenting Banerjee with arguably her most significant challenge, especially as the Lok Sabha elections approach. Her ability to navigate this crisis depends heavily on her commitment to addressing the grievances of the people of Sandeshkhali, say analysts.