Is Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena heading for another split in Maharashtra? 'Major political earthquake imminent'

Uddhav Thackeray

Until a fortnight ago, there was talk in the political circles of Maharashtra that a reconciliation was likely between Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena and the BJP.

However, during the workers' conference at Shirdi, BJP leader Amit Shah dismissed the possibility of rejoining hands with Uddhav Thackeray again.

Thackeray, too, responded aggressively in his public rally on January 23 at the Andheri Sports Complex.

While, after a humiliating defeat in the assembly polls, Uddhav Thackeray is pondering over his next steps to remain in politics, the recent developments suggest something ominous for his party. Interpreting these recent developments, some political pundits believe that the Thackeray-led Shiv Sena is heading for another rebellion.

Last week, former Shiv Sena MP Rahul Shewale created a stir by claiming that 10 to 15 MLAs of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress are likely to join the incumbent Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. He said that a “major political earthquake” is imminent to shake Maharashtra’s political landscape.

Uday Samant, a minister in Devendra Fadnavis’s cabinet from Shiv Sena, added to the sensation by stating that at least four MLAs, three MPs, and ten former MLAs of the Shiv Sena (UBT) are likely to join the Eknath Shinde faction. According to Samant, four Congress MLAs would also join the Shinde Sena.

Interestingly, many Shiv Sena (UBT) MLAs and MPs were absent during the rally organized by Uddhav Thackeray at the Andheri Sports Complex to commemorate Bal Thackeray’s 99th birth anniversary.

Thackeray Sena MPs such as Sanjay Deshmukh, Nagesh Patil-Asthikar, Bandu Jadhav, and Om Raje Nimbalkar were absent. Sanjay Raut, the party’s spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP, tried to justify the absences by saying that the event was only for Mumbai’s party workers and functionaries. However, even Sanjay Patil, one of the three Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs from Mumbai, wasn’t seen at the rally. Many other Thackeray Sena stalwarts from Konkan, such as Rajan Salvi and Vaibhav Naik, also remained absent.

Uddhav Thackeray suffered a major jolt in June 2022 when his party split into two after senior leader Eknath Shinde rebelled.

Forty MLAs out of 56 joined the Shinde faction, which led to the collapse of Uddhav Thackeray’s government.

The rebellion was engineered by the BJP, which made Shinde the Chief Minister in the successive government. Eknath Shinde’s faction was recognized as the original Shiv Sena by the Election Commission and the Vidhan Sabha Speaker.

The Shiv Sena’s election symbol, the bow and arrow, was also allotted to the Shinde faction. Uddhav Thackeray had to rename his faction as Shiv Sena (UBT). The issue of the party’s official name and election symbol is under litigation as Uddhav Thackeray has challenged the Election Commission’s order in the Supreme Court.

In the last assembly polls, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena won 57 seats, while the faction led by Uddhav Thackeray secured just 20 seats.

There were a total of 51 seats where candidates from both factions of the Shiv Sena contested against each other. Shinde’s faction won 36 seats, while Thackeray’s faction won 14. However, the Shinde faction is now eyeing even the handful of MLAs that remain with Uddhav Thackeray. Thackeray’s party has dismissed the claims made by Shinde Sena leaders and stated that none of its leaders are going to quit and join the rival camp.

The next big Shinde vs. Thackeray contest is likely to take place during the civic body polls later this year.