IMD monsoon forecast at 12:30 hours IST today: Risk of rain deficit looms large

IMD press conference will provide more clarity on India's monsoon situation this year.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will hold a press conference on “Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2023” at 12:30 pm, IST, today on April 11. Dr M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences and Dr. M Mohapatra, DGM at IMD will address the press.

The press conference will provide more clarity on the weather pattern that India is likely to experience this monsoon, and to what extent an El Nino can impact rainfall this season.

Companies across several industries such as agriculture, aviation, sports, mining, and retail will be closely watching the weather forecast to help gauge the expectations from this year's monsoon.

Monsoon shortfall possible

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said that the state government is preparing for possible shortfall in monsoon rains, after private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said that the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino is expected to set in, leading to a below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 percent chance of drought.

"The IMD has five to six models to analyse weather observations. Some of them indicate there could be an influence of the El Nino weather pattern which would adversely affect rainfall in the state in the upcoming monsoon season,” said Fadnavis, highlighting El Nino’s effects on Maharashtra.

Also Read: We’re Toast: Hotter days ahead but India seems ill-prepared to deal with heatwaves

El Nino refers to a phase of warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The surface winds during this phase can be weak or can travel in a different direction than normal, affecting the monsoon patterns globally.

Interestingly, international agencies are unanimously predicting a 50 percent possibility of El Nino in the second half of the year, and this is very likely to impact India’s rainfall volumes too.