We’re Toast: Hotter days ahead but India seems ill-prepared to deal with heatwaves

The IMD forecast comes in the backdrop of an analysis by think-tank Centre for Policy Research Analysis (CPR),

After an unusually warm February and a hot start to March threatened to cut short the spring season, widespread rainfall across most parts of India caused the temperatures to cool down substantially.

The relief, however, isn’t going to last for long as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast hotter days from the second half of April, and above-normal heatwave days in the April to June period – considered the peak summer season.

The IMD forecast comes in the backdrop of an analysis by the think-tank Centre for Policy Research (CPR), which points to the lack of preparedness of vulnerable states to deal with heatwaves. CPR studied 37 heat action plans (HAP) of 18 states to understand how well-prepared India is to deal with heatwaves.

Cool end to a warm March

February was hot and March began on a warm note with temperatures staying 4-5 notches above normal, bringing back the spectre of last year’s prolonged heat wave when the mercury crossed 49 degrees Celsius in some parts of Delhi.

But then, from the second half of March, widespread rainfall triggered by western disturbances, anti-cyclonic formations, and other factors led the mercury to drop, leading to pleasant days and cooler nights.

In fact, March saw above-average rainfall in most parts of the country. According to IMD data, India as a whole recorded 37.6 mm of rainfall in March, 26 percent above average, against a normal of 29.9 mm.

Central India recorded 206 percent above-normal rainfall for this time of the year, while northwest India reported -14 (negative 14) percent rain, and the east and northeast saw 12 percent above-average rainfall. Rainfall in the southern peninsula was 107 percent above average.

Rainfall lower by -99 to -60 percent is considered ‘large deficient,’ -59 to -20 is ‘deficient,’ and -19 to +19 percent rainfall is normal. Rainfall higher by 20-59 percent is considered `excess,’ while anything above 60 percent is termed ‘large excess.’

Though it’s rained heavily, this March is not among the wettest 20, ranking 27th since 1901, when IMD started maintaining records. The highest rainfall reported in March was 62.7 mm in 1967. In recent times, 61.7 mm of rainfall was recorded in 2015, which was the second highest ever, and 44.5 mm in March 2020.

Western disturbances the trigger

Releasing the data virtually, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that in the second half of the month, most parts of India experienced long spells of thunderstorms with isolated hailstorms and heavy rain.

All this was mostly triggered by seven western disturbances with induced circulation, five of which were experienced from March 14 to 22. Anticyclones over the central Arabian Sea and north Bay of Bengal also injected moisture.

This led to a cooling effect this time compared to last year, when March broke records. In 2022, March was one of the hottest, ranking number 1 since 1901 as far as maximum temperature is concerned.

Corroborating IMD’s findings, Raghu Murtugudde, a Visiting Professor at IIT Bombay and Emeritus Professor at the University of Maryland, said the warming over the Middle-East to the Mediterranean created an unusual circulation over northern Indian Ocean.

“Both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal warmed during March even though the land remained cool. The anticyclones over the ocean created north-northwesterly flow over large parts of India, bringing rain and leading to cooler temperatures,” Prof Murtugudde said.

SN Mishra, former Director of Climate Science and Weather, Indian Air Force, and an independent weather expert, said unusual pre-monsoon weather resembling the monsoon was seen across India in the past two weeks. Initially starting in south India and progressing northward, such extreme weather events pose a serious challenge to forecasters, he said. “It’s unclear if this weather is a result of climate change and needs further study,” he added.

Despite forecasts of hotter days, Mishra explained, the spread and intensity of rainfall throughout the country resulted in a much cooler and rainier March.

“This rainfall was produced by western disturbances and westerly troughs, leading to thunderstorms with isolated hailstorms and strong winds that damaged standing wheat crops,” Mishra said.

Above-normal heatwave days ahead

The cooler weather in March notwithstanding, it is going to get hotter with the IMD forecasting above-normal heatwave days over most parts of central, east, and northwest India during April, May, and June.

Above normal heatwave days are likely over parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, east and west Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, north Chhattisgarh, western Maharashtra, Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana in April.

The first half of April, however, is expected to stay more or less within the normal range and the heat may rise only in the second half, Mohapatra said.

A heatwave is declared if a region’s ambient temperature goes up by at least 4.5-6.4° Celsius from the normal and stays like that for two consecutive days. A maximum temperature of 45° Celsius or more (37° Celsius for coastal regions) is also considered a heatwave.

The Met department has forecast normal rainfall for April over the country as a whole. It is most likely to be between 88 to 112 percent of the long-term average for the month, which is generally 39.2 mm.

Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of northwest, central, and peninsular India, whereas below-normal rainfall is likely over east and northeast India and some areas along the west coast, the IMD said.

According to Mahesh Palawat, Vice-President of private forecaster Skymet, the weather has been pleasant until now as the pre-monsoon weather

was intense over most parts of the country. But near-dry weather conditions are soon expected over northwest and central India, he cautioned.

“Temperatures will start rising and there may be heatwave conditions in the second half of April as well as in May,” Palawat said.

Murtugudde said the strong westerly flow will pick up soon and that will pump warm air into India from the Middle East, the oceans, and from the northwest.

According to Mishra, April and May are typically dry and hot summer months, which coincide with wheat crop harvesting. Three to four heat waves generally occur in the core heat zone of northwest, west, and central India. These are essential in building up the monsoon circulation.

“The formation of intense heat over west Rajasthan and adjoining central Pakistan is a crucial factor in driving the monsoon current over the Indian region. The heatwaves are likely from April-end until around the first fortnight of June.”

Mishra said the IMD has predicted normal to above-normal rainfall in April, which should keep temperatures within the normal range for the month. “We can expect more heatwaves during May and June.”

Ill-prepared

Amid all these projections, and as heatwaves get more intense, CPR’s analysis of heat action plans (HAP) of 18 states between 2016 and 2022 throws up some alarming facts.

The analysis, titled ‘How is India Adapting to Heatwaves?: An assessment of heat action plans with insights for transformative climate action,’ says most plans are not built for the local context, do not target vulnerable groups, have fund constraints, have weak legal foundations, and are not transparent.

Heat action plans are guidance documents prepared by state, district, and city administrations to help prepare for, respond to, and recover and learn from heatwaves.

“The heat action plans generally focus on dry extreme heat and ignore the threat posed by humid heat and warm nights. Most adopt national heatwave thresholds that may not be suited to the risks faced by local populations,” the report said.

Simply put, what may work for Delhi’s dry heat may not work for Mumbai’s humid weather. Only 10 out of 37 action plans, the report says, seem to have locally-specified temperature thresholds, adding that climate projections, which could help identify planning needs, are not integrated into the plans.

Vulnerable groups worst-hit

The report said that nearly all plans fail to identify and target vulnerable groups, which are generally those who are out on the streets. Only two plans present vulnerability assessments – i.e., systematic studies to locate the people most likely to be affected in a city, district, or state.

While most plans list broad categories of vulnerable groups such as the elderly, outdoor workers, pregnant women, etc., the list of solutions proposed do not necessarily focus on them, CPR said.

According to a 2022 report in The Lancet, India lost 167.2 billion labour hours in 2021 due to heat stress, causing income loss equivalent to about 5.4 percent of GDP. This is up from 2019, when India lost 118.3 billion work hours due to extreme heat, per a 2020 Lancet report. Vulnerable populations were exposed to 3.7 billion more heatwave days in 2021 than annually the annual average between 1986–2005, the report said.

One of the most important functions of heat action plans is to direct scarce healthcare, financial, communication, and infrastructure resources to the populations most vulnerable to extreme heat. This requires regular assessment of who is vulnerable and whether such interventions are reaching them.

“Without implementation-oriented HAPs, India’s poorest will continue to suffer from extreme heat, paying with both their health and incomes,” said Aditya Valiathan Pillai, Associate Fellow at CPR and co-author of the report.

Among other points, the CPR report said that only three of 37 HAPs identify funding sources, none reviewed indicate the legal sources of their authority, and there is no national repository of action plans.

It says HAPs should identify sources of finance — either from new funds or by aligning actions with existing national and state policies — and set up independent evaluations for constant improvement.