Coronavirus vaccine | Current production not enough, will take 4-5 years to vaccinate everyone, says Adar Poonawalla

Adar Poonawalla, CEO of the Serum Institute of India (SII) has warned of shortage of the COVID-19 vaccine for all till 2024 at least.

Pharmaceutical companies are not increasing production capacity quickly enough to inoculate the global population immediately, adding that it would take four to five years until “everyone on the planet” gets vaccinated, he told the Financial Times.

Poonawalla estimated a need for close to 15 billion doses of the COVID-19 vaccine if a two-dose programme – similar to the measles vaccinations drive is initiated.

He also raised concerns about vaccine distribution in India given the country’s poor cold chain infrastructure to transport the vaccine safely to its 1.4 billion people.

“I still don’t see a proper plan on paper to do that [in India] beyond 400m doses. You don't want a situation with the vaccine where you have capacity for your country but you can’t consume it,” he noted.

Follow our LIVE Updates on the coronavirus pandemic here

SII has partnered with five global pharma companies including AstraZeneca to produce 1 billion doses of its vaccine candidate – half of which it has pledged to India; besides partnering with Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute to manufacture the Sputnik V vaccine.

Stating that the commitment “far exceeded other vaccine producers”, he acknowledged the need to be optimistic.

As the biggest COVID-19 vaccine producer by volume, Poonawalla’s assessment “casts serious doubts” on politicians claims of a vaccine by October, and added to fears that large pre-orders from the United States (US) and Europe would leave others at the back of the line, the paper said.

SII presently produces 1.5 billion doses of polio, measles and influenza vaccines for 170 countries.

Poonawalla’s time estimation matches WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan’s prediction that the pandemic would take four to five years to be controlled.

Follow our full COVID-19 coverage here