Bankable ally or Achilles heel? Why RJD may have a big Congress problem in Bihar

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls, the Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19 seats.

The ruling NDA announced its seat-sharing deal last week for the upcoming two-phase Bihar Assembly election, with BJP releasing its first list of candidates on Tuesday. However, the opposition Mahagatbandhan is yet to finalise a pact amid unease between allies over seat-sharing.

The Opposition bloc comprises RJD, Congress, VIP, and Left parties. However, with a “weak’ Congress as its partner, the going may get tough for RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav.

The Bihar election will be held in two phases, on November 6 and 11, with results to be declared on November 14.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, along with son and heir-apparent Tejashwi Yadav, left for Delhi on Sunday. It has led to speculation of high-level talks with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to resolve the deadlock.

Seat-sharing woes

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls, the Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19 seats. It recorded the lowest strike rate within its alliance. With a poor strike rate of 27%, the Congress was touted as the ‘weak link’ in the grand alliance

In fact, Congress has not won more than 30 seats since the 1995 Bihar assembly polls. It had managed to win only nine seats in 2005 and just four in 2010.

However, buoyed by the “success” of its recently held “Voter Adhikar Yatra”, the Congress has reportedly sought more seats. It also won 3 out of the 9 seats it contested in the Lok Sabha elections, an improvement from 2019.

A report by India Today said that the RJD had offered Congress 52 seats, but the party rejected the proposal, insisting on 65 constituencies.

On the back of its strong performance in the last elections and an increase in its vote share in the Lok Sabha elections last year, the RJD may be apprehensive about giving more seats to the Congress since it can hurt its prospect in the state where its ally really does not have a strong base.

Worry over CM face

Moreover, Tejashwi unilaterally declared himself as the chief ministerial face of the Grand Alliance. However, the chief ministerial candidate is also reportedly a sticky issue between the RJD and Congress.

After the RJD leader’s announcement, Congress leader Udit Raj said Tejashwi was not INDIA bloc's chief ministerial face and the name for the top post would be decided collectively.

By putting his stamp on the alliance's CM face, Tejashwi signalled that while the Congress might be a national party, the RJD was the big brother in Bihar.

However, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has always sidestepped the question in press briefings. It is also being said that Congress's hesitation in endorsing Tejashwi is likely linked to the seat-sharing negotiations. It is wary of not getting its desired number of seats in the alliance.

Damp squib

While the Congress has projected Gandhi’s ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’ as a successful one, there are reports that his allegations of “vote theft” against the Election Commission does not have many takers.

The poll body dismissed Gandhi's claim that over six thousand votes had been deleted in the Aland Assembly constituency segment in Karnataka.

Apart from the poll panel calling the allegations "incorrect and baseless,” it failed to resonate among voters.

According to NDA poll strategists, the “vote chori” campaign and the Opposition’s stance on SIR have “not made any major impact” on the ground.

While the Mahagathbandhan is still mulling over its seat allocation, the BJP has posted on social media that the NDA is united while cracks are appearing within the INDIA bloc alliance. The BJP even dubbed the opposition as "Lathbandhan," criticising their internal strife.