Global CO2 emissions to peak this year, but cheaper solar gears may help reverse the trend

This was the second-warmest September ever recorded in the world.

The world perhaps never felt it more chocking, as carbon-di-oxide (CO2) emissions likely to have scaled a peak this year, but a breather seems to be round the corner with the cost of solar panels and batteries crowding out coal and stunting the growth of oil, says a report by DNV, a Norwegian risk management company.

C02 emissions had scaled a record high last year, making it increasingly harder to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. DNV said even if emissions peak this year, they are cumulative and a slow decline after the peak means warming of 2.2 degrees is the most likely scenario this century, news agency Reuters reported.

DNV pointed out that the transition to clean energy remains too slow. “Worryingly, our forecasted decline is very far from the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement targets,” Bloomberg quoted DNV Chief Executive Officer Remi Eriksen as saying in the report. “In particular, the hard-to-electrify sectors need a renewed policy push.”

The build-out of solar photovoltaic (PV) and batteries is booming. In 2023, new solar installations surged by 80 percent to reach 400 gigawatts (GW) and the costs in many regions became cheaper than coal. As battery prices fell by 14 percent last year and may slide further, 24-hour solar and storage power has become more accessible.

Although renewable growth continues to beat records, some countries continue to struggle, said the report. More military spending and tough economic conditions mean nations are sometimes turning away from ambitious climate goals. “There is a growing mismatch between short-term geopolitical and economic priorities versus the need to accelerate the energy transition,” Eriksen said.

The cost of deploying solar panels and battery technology is expected to go down 19 percent by 2030, helping deliver record amounts of low-carbon power, setting the stage for a 2.2-fold growth for renewables. Yet, it will be well below the three-fold growth target set out at the COP28 United Nations Climate Change Conference. Similarly, energy efficiency improvements are taking place at about half the rate recommended by the UN’s climate body.

EU climate monitor Copernicus, meanwhile, declared the last month as the second-warmest September ever recorded in the world in an exceptional year "almost certain" to become the hottest on record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said the average global temperature last month was second only to September 2023. September saw "extreme" rainfall and destructive storms in many parts of the world, which are taking place with higher severity and frequency as the mercury moves up around the world.