ONGC may report a decline in Q3 net profit on lower realisations

ONGC is expected to post a net profit of Rs 9,115 crore, down 14 percent on-year and 8 percent on-quarter, based on the estimates of seven analysts.

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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State-run oil marketing major Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd (ONGC) may see a decline in the December quarter net profit on the back of lower crude realisation and provisioning for GST on royalties. The company will report its earnings on February 10.

ONGC is expected to post a net profit of Rs 9,115 crore, down 14 percent on-year and 8 percent on-quarter, based on the estimates of seven analysts. Net sales are anticipated to remain flat sequentially and decrease 9 percent on-year to Rs 34,631 crore, while EBITDA is likely to plummet 10 percent annually and remain flat sequentially.

ONGC may face a decline of 0.5 percent in crude and 1.4 percent in gas production, coupled with a 2 percent drop in net crude realisation, leading to a projected 9 percent EBITDA loss over the previous quarter. CLSA expects an 18 percent rise in recouped costs, possibly increasing the decline in net profit by 13 percent on-quarter and 19 percent on-year.

Kotak forecasts a 1 percent increase in crude oil sales to 4.7 million metric tonnes and natural gas sales up 1 percent to 4.1 billion cubic metres, but down 3 percent over the last year. The company's gross crude realisation is expected to drop 3 percent to $82.6 per barrel, while net realisation, accounting for royalties and taxes, is estimated to rise 3 percent to $52 per barrel, with lower windfall taxes offsetting reduced Brent prices.

Nuvama predicts a substantial 12 percent on-year EBITDA decline for ONGC due to lower crude and gas prices. Brent prices fell 7 percent annually and 4 percent sequentially in Q3FY24, and APM gas prices dropped by 24 percent to $6.5/mmbtu, as per the Kirit Parikh committee recommendation from April 2023. Anticipated declines include 3 percent on-year and 4 percent on-year in oil and gas production, with a flat on-quarter performance across segments.

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