YES Bank shares crumble as analysts see limited reasons for gains to sustain

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Shares of YES Bank saw profit booking on December 14 after a strong rally in the last few sessions as the lender appointed representative directors from Carlyle and Advent on its board after they acquired a stake in the company.

The stock plunged over 5 percent to Rs 22.65 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

Shares of Yes Bank are in demand recently amid an improved outlook for banking stocks owing to strong credit growth. The stock is up 62.36 percent in the last year as the company has come out of its 2020 woes.

However, analysts and fund managers are advising investors to be cautious for two reasons – the upcoming expiry of lock-in of 75 percent of shares that will likely flood the counter with supply and most of the positives already being priced in.

“If you're getting very excited about Yes Bank and all the stuff that's happening, remember that the three-year lock-in for 75 percent of the pre-drama shares expires in March 2023, three months from now,” said Deepak Shenoy, Founder of CapitalMind.

As any lock-in period ends, stock prices crash as many investors try to make an exit. We have seen many of the stocks that debuted recently suffer as investors liquidated their holdings following lock-in expiry this year.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley initiated its coverage on the stock with an ‘underweight’ rating with a target of Rs 20.50. The research house said it sees the bank moving in the right direction but, at a valuation of 1.6x F24 book, is already pricing this.

“More importantly, we see limited improvement beyond 1 percent RoA (return on assets) given high competitive intensity in retail deposits as well as assets,” wrote Sumeet Kariwala, Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley, in his report on December 13.

In his estimates, Kariwala expects loan growth to improve to 15 percent/20 percent in FY23/FY24, against 9 percent in F22, and margin to improve by 30 basis points (bps) each in FY23 and FY24 to 2.9 percent against 2.3 percent in F22.

“Margin uptick is driven by a continued mix shift towards retail and MSME loans, free funds impact and de-bulking of stressed assets. Credit costs remain benign; we build in 78 bps in FY23 and 66 bps in FY24, versus 40 bps in FY22,” he said.

In the bull case scenario when there is stronger-than-expected economic growth and lower competitive intensity, the target price will shift to Rs 34.50. In the bear case when there is weaker than expected macro and a substantial increase in competitive intensity in retail deposits, the target will be Rs 11.

Since the reconstruction of the bank and its board in 2020, the new management has recognized and adequately provided for legacy stressed exposures, improved the granularity of the balance sheet, and fixed governance issues.

The bank has also recently signed a deal with an asset reconstruction company (ARC) to transfer toxic assets, after which the balance sheet will be clean and the bank will be well placed, said analysts.

However, not many are bullish on the stock. Overall, nine analysts have a ‘sell’ rating on the stock, five have a ‘hold’ and just one ‘buy’. The consensus target, according to Bloomberg, on the stock is Rs 14.67, meaning a potential downside of 36 percent from the current price.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.