Motilal Oswal's research report on United Breweries
United Breweries (UBBL) delivered revenue growth of 9% YoY (est. 10%) in 4QFY25. Volume growth was 5% YoY (est. 8%). The Premium portfolio continued to deliver strong performance, posting 24% YoY growth in 4Q (32% in FY25). North, West, East and South regions reported volume growth of 3%, 11%, 0% and 5%, respectively. Volume growth was driven by Maharashtra, AP, UP, and Assam, partly offset by a partial suspension in Telangana and duty changes in Karnataka. GM rose 40bp YoY to 42.1% (est. 41.7%). EBITDA margin expanded 90bp YoY to 8% (est. 6.2%), led by a better product mix and cost-efficiencies. Management expects short-term pressure on margins as they continue to face challenges in glass bottle supply, arising from the onboarding of new suppliers and evolving procurement dynamics, which led to some inconsistencies in bottle availability, especially for SKU-specific needs. We model EBITDA margin of 11.3% in FY26 and 12.8% in FY27.
Outlook
We already model good recovery in EBITDA margin, which has seen sharp contraction over the last five years. Given rich valuations, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock with a TP of INR2,000 (based on 55x FY27E EPS).
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