Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Nuvoco Vistas Corporation
Nuvoco Vistas (NUVOCO) reported weak operating performance in 1Q on sharp 10% QoQ decline in volumes affected by demand weakness in West Bengal and Odisha. EBITDA per ton of Rs715 was lower than PLe of Rs755 due to lower operating leverage. Going forward, demand is expected to remain sluggish in the near term and improve post monsoon once budgetary allocation gets implemented across states. Cost optimization measures such as railway sidings and usage of WHRS are expected to save cost. Current debt level of the company hinders the growth plan, which we expect would result in market share loss in the medium term.
Outlook
We cut FY25E/26E EBITDA by 5%/2% on lower pricing assumption and expect NUVOCO to deliver ~10% CAGR in EBITDA over FY24-26E. The stock is trading at EV of 9.2x/7.5x FY25E/FY26E EBITDA. Maintain ‘Accumulate’ with revised TP of Rs374 (earlier Rs388) valuing at 8x EV of Mar’26E EBITDA.
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