Quick commerce firms set to clock 1 billion orders by Diwali this calendar year

At the current pace, the top three platforms will together account for a majority of the one billion annual order volumes.

The top five quick commerce companies such as Eternal-owned Blinkit, Swiggy’s Instamart, Zepto, Tata’s BigBasket and Flipkart Minutes are expected to cumulatively hit the one billion (100 crore) order mark by Diwali, in October, as per industry stakeholders.

All quick commerce companies combined would have delivered a billion orders from the beginning of this calendar year to October later this year, as per two top executives at large quick commerce firms. For the entire calendar year, the number could be even higher as these platforms expand their reach and demand for their services picks up during the festive period.

To be sure, the top three players: Blinkit, Swiggy’s Instamart and Zepto have already scaled to deliver 2.1 million, 1.05 million and 1.5 million orders each day, respectively, which means they are already clocking over one billion orders cumulatively on an annualised basis at the current pace. These top three firms together account for a majority of the order volumes.

At the same time, others like Tata’s BigBasket, which is clocking over 0.5 million orders each day and Flipkart Minutes, which is now doing around 0.3 million orders each day, are also adding to the tally.

More players like Amazon Now and FirstClub joining the race will only mean the order volumes increase further.

The quick commerce industry has grown over 100 percent year-on-year (YoY), driven by city and category expansion, as per Satish Meena, advisor to Datum Intelligence, a market research firm focused on consumer technology.

Indeed, Eternal-owned Blinkit has seen its average monthly transacting customer base more than double from 7.6 million in Q1FY25 to 16.9 million in Q1FY26. Similarly, Swiggy’s Instamart has grown its base of monthly transacting users from 5.2 million to 11.1 million during the same period.

“Consumers have moved about 15-20 percent of their non-grocery items to quick commerce from traditional e-commerce and offline stores earlier which has further propelled the industry. The purchasing patterns show the market is now growing on planned purchases instead of last minute top ups like earlier,” Meena said.

The shift is visible in the performance of companies, too. Take for instance Swiggy’s Instamart which has grown its share of non-grocery items, as a percentage of gross order value (GOV), from 7 percent last year to 18.5 percent now, as per its quarterly shareholder letter.

CCI lens

The meteoric rise of quick commerce, still a sunrise sector, comes at a time when the Competition Commission of India (CCI) is currently reviewing the operations of companies to assess whether they follow anti-competitive practices.

Along with investigating allegations of possible foreign direct investment (FDI) norm violations, the anti-competitive watchdog is also monitoring the pricing strategies of quick commerce companies and if they give preferential treatment to some sellers.

The increasing scrutiny is also because the industry has gone from near zero to a $7.5 billion market in a span of five years. From negligible order volumes in 2020 to a billion orders in a single year in 2025 is primarily due to quick commerce going from a good-to-have feature for most companies to an offer that is increasingly a must-have for most firms dabbling in the space.

However, Meena from Datum Intelligence believes the 100 percent growth will not sustain for long.

“While companies are expanding to newer cities, the growth from outside the top 8-10 metros is taking longer than anticipated. Grocery spends are rangebound so the growth rate depends on how fast the non-grocery categories scale from here,” he concluded.