Robust domestic demand, Urals’ attractive pricing pump up Russian oil flow to India in April: Kpler

India’s crude oil imports from Russia have remained strong despite US slapping fresh sanctions on Moscow.

India’s oil imports from Russia are likely to clock in at two-year highs in April, aided by attractive pricing of Moscow’s sour grade Urals and strong domestic demand in the month.

Data from market analytics firm Kpler shows that India’s crude oil imports from Russia for April 2025 are estimated at 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd)—potentially the highest since May 2023. Meanwhile, actual arrivals till April 22 stand at approximately 1.8 million bpd, with Urals comprising about 77 percent and lighter grades the remaining 23 percent.

“…please note that trade flows remain in the liquid phase, and cargoes might slip into May’s arrivals, and April's total crude import from Russia might slip below 2.0 Mbd and close around 1.8-1.9 Mbd. I feel that the overall crude imports in April will be around this level,” Sumit Ritolia, senior oil analyst at Kpler told Moneycontrol.

The oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq—India’s traditional suppliers—have also been strong in April as domestic demand remains strong on account of pre-summer logistical build-up, peak agricultural activity and elevated industrial output.

India has imported 902,000 bpd from Iraq and 572,000 bpd from Saudi Arabia until April 22, showed Kpler data.

Russian oil flow to India

India’s crude oil imports from Russia have remained strong despite US slapping fresh sanctions on the country, underscoring Moscow’s ability to build robust supply chain. Crude oil imports from Moscow were temporarily expected to slump, as Indian refiners were unable to immediately secure spot supplies after former US President Joe Biden had on January 10 imposed new sanctions on Russian oil entities. The Biden administration had sanctioned Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as around 180 tankers shipping Russian oil.

Kpler expects Russian crude to maintain a 30 percent-35 percent share in India’s crude mix in the short term. Indian refiners continue to buy Russian oil as its sour grade Urals are available at better discounts relative to West African and Middle Eastern barrels. Additionally, with drone attacks on Russian refineries, the country’s domestic processing declined, in turn boosting export availability.

India’s private player Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) also ramped up Russian oil consumption as March oil imports rose 39.2 percent from the previous month at 622 thousand bpd. Reliance’s sourcing from Russia in April is also expected to be around 600-620 thousand bpd, according to Kpler.

“The surge aligns with the Rosneft-Reliance long-term supply agreement, under which Russia's state oil company agreed to supply nearly 500,000 bpd, making it the largest India-Russia energy deal to date,” said Ritolia.

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