This Akshaya Tritiya, should you go big on gold or stick to a token purchase?

Last year, gold shattered records, posting 40 new all-time highs.

With gold prices crossing a record Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams just days ahead of Akshaya Tritiya, investors are wondering whether to stock up on the yellow metal or stick to token purchases during the auspicious festival today.

The sentiment around gold during Akshaya Tritiya is deeply rooted in India as the precious metal remains a trusted hedge against macro and geopolitical uncertainties.

Domestic spot gold prices hit a fresh record high on April 22, surpassing the psychological mark of Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams. However, prices have cracked significantly and traded around the Rs 96,000 level on April 29.

Last year, gold shattered records, posting 40 all-time highs.

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“In 2024, it delivered an impressive 27 percent return, outperforming the S&P 500. Four months into 2025, gold’s momentum remains strong, with prices already up 26 percent year-to-date, surpassing $3,300 per ounce,” said Chanchal Agarwal, Chief Investment Officer, Credence Equirus Family Office.

Outlook for gold

A major shift of physical gold from London to New York has caused delivery delays and inventory pressures. Central banks, particularly India’s, have accelerated imports. After the UK’s confiscation of Venezuela’s gold, many now believe that if you don’t hold your gold physically, it may not truly be yours.

Further, experts believe that the long-term structural imbalances in the global world of rising deficits and unsustainable debt continue to linger.

“Central banks may opt to ease their monetary policies further and also chart a course for potentially moving away from reliance on a dominant currency holding. Such a shift could create a more favourable environment for gold,” said Chirag Mehta, Chief Investment Officer, Quantum Mutual Fund.

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Recent dip in prices

After making a record high, gold prices have dropped quite a bit in the last couple of days, mainly due to profit taking and renewed interest in the US dollar.

Experts feel that in the short term, gold’s appeal will depend on upcoming economic indicators, including US inflation and employment data, which will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates.

“However, the long-term outlook remains bullish, supported by strong central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties,” said Satish Dondapati, Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund.

All in or take it easy?

Even the best-performing assets are not immune to cycles.

“Historical 10-year rolling returns for gold show long periods of both underperformance and exceptional gains. With much of the current nervousness already priced in, the short- to medium-term outlook for gold may see more subdued movements,” said Agarwal.

As per market experts, while underlying supporting factors for gold continue, some consolidation or price correction may happen.

“Anyone looking to invest now should do so from a long-term asset allocation perspective, and not just for short-term gains. In the current scenario, invest in a staggered manner with an eye on potential opportunity due to market volatility or dips,” said Siddharth Srivastava, Head - ETF Product & Fund Manager, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India).

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The best way to approach

Viral Bhatt, Founder, Money Mantra, believes that gold has always held a special place in Indian hearts, especially during auspicious occasions such as Akshaya Tritiya. However, he advises investors to balance emotions with prudence this year.

“With gold prices hovering near all-time highs, aggressive buying purely out of sentiment could expose investors to short-term volatility. It’s wise to be cautious — allocate a portion towards gold for long-term wealth preservation, but avoid overexposure,” said Bhatt.

For those who already have significant gains in gold, Bhatt suggests that this could also be an opportunity to rebalance and book partial profits.

Raghav Iyengar, Chief Executive Officer of 360 ONE Asset, is also of the opinion that with current elevated prices, it’s wise to approach gold buying with discernment.

“A modest purchase of physical gold can honour tradition and emotional value. Channelling larger allocations through gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) or multi-asset allocation funds offers a more efficient way to participate in the asset’s long-term potential,” Iyengar said.