Budget 2022: A stable income-tax regime is good for equity markets

Mahesh Patil

The Indian economy is still recovering from the Covid pandemic. And the need of the hour was a budget that would sustain the economy on the recovery path. In furtherance to the previous budget, the government has continued with measures in the current one that complement macro growth with social welfare, while being accommodative on fiscal consolidation.

The Finance Minister has announced a growth-oriented budget with a focus on capex rather than on consumption. Budget receipts estimates both on the tax and non-tax front are quite conservative and should be achievable. The tax-GDP ratio has been kept at about 10.7 percent of GDP, which is realistic. Divestment and other non-tax revenue estimates are also realistic.

On the expenditure side the government has budgeted healthy growth in capex, a significant part of which is going to States for their capex expenditure. The Budget is also making an attempt to bring off-balance sheet expenditure within the balance sheet and is thus positive on the transparency front.

The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP has been budgeted at 6.4 percent for FY23 versus the FY22RE of 6.9 percent. This was more aggressive than the market consensus, which was in the range of 6-6.4 percent. Overall gross market borrowing has been budgeted at INR 14.95 trillion and net market borrowing at INR 11.1 trillion, both of which are higher than market estimates and would be little challenging for bond markets given the possibility of less RBI support.

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Mahesh Patil

Chief Investment Officer|Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company

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States were also allowed to run a deficit of 4 percent of GDP in FY23 with 0.5 percent tied to power sector reforms. The medium-term commitment to reach a fiscal deficit of 4.5 percent by FY26 was retained although a larger part of the consolidation now appears back-ended.

Infrastructure focus continues
The Budget has reiterated the government’s focus on public investment to modernise infrastructure over the medium term. For the infrastructure sector, unlike last year, when there was a step change, this year has seen 8-10 percent growth in the budgetary allocation for most segments, except Railways, which got a 17% hike.

In the case of the housing sector also, the budget has allocated INR 48,000 crore for the PM Awas Yojana, up from INR 25,000-30,000 crore in the past few years. In addition, the Jal Jeevan mission to provide households with tap water has received an allocation of INR 60,000 crore. Overall, increased investment is expected to benefit companies in sectors such as capital goods, cement, logistics, infrastructure, pipes, real-estate etc.

Supporting the private sector
The government is continuing its efforts to support private sector growth and support new business models. In the Defence sector, 68 percent of the capital procurement budget will be earmarked for domestic industry, up from 58 percent last year. Also, 25 percent of Defence R&D will be earmarked for the private sector. One of the key highlights of this budget is its focus on the digital economy, start-ups, and tech-enabled development as well as energy transition and climate action.

The budget also takes forward the steps taken in last year’s budget to stimulate domestic manufacturing. It has simplified customs duty for various sectors, including chemicals, provided duty concessions for electronics manufacturers, and made an additional allocation to facilitate domestic manufacturing of solar PV modules, which in congruence with the PLI scheme.

The timeline for a lower tax regime of 15 percent for newly incorporated manufacturing companies has also been increased till March 31, 2024. This is slated to incentivise companies in the manufacturing space and make them globally competitive. Extension of the timeline and amount under the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) should aid MSMEs and encourage banks to lend.

Equity markets positive
A key highlight is that there was no negative news for taxpayers in terms of a change in tax rates. A stable tax regime has removed a major overhang, which is contributing to the positive sentiment for equity markets.

Overall, Budget 2022-23 is pro-growth, conservative in assumptions and transparent. In this backdrop, we continue to remain positive on the overall construct of equity markets. Within sectors, we are constructive on Banks and Financials, Domestic cyclicals and Industrials.