Natural gas futures hit fresh lifetime high on supply concerns, strong demand

Natural gas futures climbed on September 15 and made a fresh lifetime high during intraday on the MCX due to tightness in the US market on supply disruption and robust domestic and export demand. The gas prices touched a high of Rs 399.50/mmBtu and a low of Rs 389.20/ mmBtu during the day.

The energy commodity extended gains to trade at day’s high after a flat to gap-up start, tracking the bullish global trend. 

On the MCX, natural gas delivery for September surged by Rs 8.30, or 2.12 percent to Rs 399.70 per mmBtu at 14:34 hours with a business turnover of 9,987 lots.

Gas delivery for October jumped by Rs 8.50, or 2.15 percent, to Rs 403.90 per mmBtu with a business volume of 4,662 lots.

The value of September and October's contracts traded so far is Rs 875.53 crore and Rs 126.87 crore, respectively.

MCX iCOMDEX Natural Gas Index advanced 85.55 points or 1.80 percent to 4,849.81.

Kotak Securities said natural gas may remain volatile as market players question the sustainability of recent gains. However, the general momentum may remain positive unless there is a substantial recovery in US output.

Kshitij Purohit, Product Manager, Currency & Commodities, CapitalVia Global Research Limited said, “Now that we’re well above $5.25, it’s more or less a toss-up as to where we’ll go next in terms of the upside, with $5.50 being the most likely possibility.”

About 48.2 percent of the Gulf of Mexico gas production remained shut as of September 14 against 51.61 percent a day earlier, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.

The gas price has been supported by supply concerns due to fresh storm concerns as Hurricane Nicholas made landfall near Texas but it has weakened to a tropical depression.

Technicals

The commodity has been trading higher than 5, 20, 50, 100, and 200 days' simple moving averages and exponential moving averages on the daily chart. The momentum indicator Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 81.83, which indicates an overbought level in the price.

Geojit Financial Services said, “Rallies would continue while prices stay above Rs 360. A close below the same is a weak signal."

At 0931 GMT, the natural gas price climbed 3.67 percent at $5.45 per mmBtu in New York.

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