Trading Plan: Will Nifty and Bank Nifty breakout of consolidation this week?

On the weekly chart, the Nifty index has formed a "Doji" candlestick pattern, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.

Indian benchmark indices started last week flat and remained lackluster within a narrow trading range throughout the week. The Nifty closed at 23,466 on June 14, gaining 175 points on a weekly basis. Markets stayed in a consolidation phase and ended slightly higher, taking a pause after the volatile post-election week. Sectoral buying and traction in select themes kept traders engaged. Notably, broader indices outperformed significantly, with gains ranging from 3.82% to 4.81%, positively surprising participants.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Rajesh Palviya - Senior Vice President, Research (Head Technical & Derivatives) at Axis Securities
Outlook: On the weekly chart, the index has formed a "Doji" candlestick pattern, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.
The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above the 23,600 level, it will likely see buying pressure, pushing the index towards 23,800-23,900 levels. Conversely, if the index falls below 23,300, it may experience selling pressure, taking it down to 23,200-23,000. For the week, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 23,900-23,000 with a mixed bias. The daily and weekly RSI indicators are moving upwards and quoting above their reference lines, indicating a positive bias.
Key Resistance: 23,550-23,700
Key Support: 23,300-23,150
Strategy: Buy Nifty near 23,300 with a stop loss at 23,220, targeting 23,550-23,700.
Rajesh Bhosale - Technical Analyst at Angel One
Outlook: Summarizing the weekly trading activity for the key indices, it was a dull week. This is evident on the daily chart, which shows a series of small-body candles indicating bullish fatigue and a time-wise correction phase. For the coming week, the key range extends to 23,200 - 23,600. Beyond this zone, momentum is expected to pick up again, as the hourly Bollinger Band has contracted significantly. Typically, a period of low volatility is followed by high volatility. Traders are advised to monitor these levels and adjust their trades accordingly. The market undertone remains positive, so traders should consider buying on dips and booking profits at higher levels.
Options Analysis: The highest concentration of open interest on the Call side is at the deep OTM strike of 24,000. Prior to that, significant accumulation is evident at the slightly OTM 23,500 call strike, which has served as a strong barrier all week. This area will be closely monitored after the extended weekend, as a breakthrough above 23,500 could reinvigorate momentum in the current sluggish market conditions. Conversely, the 23,400 put strike has the highest concentration of open interest, with notable buildup seen at the 23,300 put, indicating key support.
Key Support: 23,350 - 23,230 - 23,100
Key Resistance: 23,600 - 23,730 - 23,800
Strategy: The approach would be to buy on dips around 23,350 and to book profits around 23,600. Traders should monitor these levels and plan their trades accordingly.
Bank Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Palviya - Axis Securities
Bank Nifty Outlook: Bank Nifty started the week on a flat note and remained consolidated within a narrow range, closing positively. Bank Nifty closed at 50,002 on June 14th with a gain of 199 points on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a bullish candle and remained restricted within the previous week's high-low range, indicating a lack of strength on either side.
The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty crosses and sustains above the 50,250 level, it will likely see buying pressure, pushing the index towards 50,500-50,700 levels. Conversely, if the index falls below 49,800, it may experience selling pressure, taking it down to 49,600-49,300. For the week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the range of 50,700-49,300 with a mixed bias. The daily and weekly RSI indicators are moving upwards and quoting above their respective reference lines, indicating a positive bias.
Key Resistance: 50,200-50,500
Key Support: 49,800-49,600
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty near 49,900 with a stop loss at 49,700, targeting 50,200-50,400.
Rajesh Bhosale - Angel One
Outlook: Following a strong surge during the election result week, this week has been notably lackluster for the high beta index. Prices have remained confined to a narrow range between 49,500 and 50,250. Examining the trading activity of the past two weeks, it resembles a Pole and Flag pattern formation. Conversely, 49,500 remains a critical level to monitor on the downside.
Options Analysis: The highest open interest concentration is centered around the ATM 50,000 strike for both calls and puts. This suggests ongoing accumulation in this area, hinting at a potential imminent momentum shift. Additionally, there is notable buildup in the OTM 51,000 call and OTM 49,000 put, indicating expectations of a broader price range once momentum returns to the market.
Key Support: 49,500 - 49,250 - 49,000
Key Resistance: 50,250 - 50,500 - 50,750Strategy: Traders should maintain a buy-on-dip approach with a stop loss at 49,500 and can expect strong positive momentum once prices break beyond 50,250.

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