The market extended losses amid volatility for the second consecutive week ended February 18 but a close observation reveals that the benchmark indices have remained rangebound for nearly four weeks now, looking for strong direction on either side.
The Nifty50 fell nearly 100 points during the week to settle at 17,276 on Friday, around the same level it closed on January 25. The trend indicated that the index has strong support at 17,000-16,800; if the same levels get breached decisively there could be sharp correction. However, the crucial hurdle remains at 17,500-17,600 levels, with all eyes on global cues including Ukraine-Russia tensions, experts feel.
"Till the time this war kind of scenario does not subside completely, uncertainty is likely to loom over markets across the globe. So in such times, it's advisable not to trade aggressively and avoid carrying positions overnight," said Sameet Chavan, chief analyst, technical and derivatives, Angel One.
As far as levels are concerned, he said, "We witnessed some nervousness around 17,450-17,500. So, if bulls have to regain any strength, they need to surpass these levels with some authority."
On the flipside, "17,000 followed by 16,800 is to be seen as make or break levels. In case of any aberration on the global front, the market will have to face challenging times after sliding below this sacrosanct support," he added.
Here are top 10 trading ideas by experts for the next three to four weeks. Returns are based on February 18 closing prices:
Expert: Nagaraj Shetti, technical research analyst at HDFC Securities
Coal India: Buy | LTP: Rs 167.30 | Stop-Loss: Rs 155 | Target: Rs 184 | Return: 10 percent
After showing an upside bounce in the early-mid part of January, the stock has witnessed rangebound action in the last few weeks. It has recovered from intra-week lows last week and is currently placed at the upper area of the sideways range at Rs 169-170 levels.
The current sideways range indicates uptrend continuation pattern. Volume has started to expand during upmove in the stock and weekly 14 period RSI shows positive indication. Hence, one may expect further strengthening of upside momentum in the stock.
Buying can be initiated in Coal India at CMP (Rs 167.30), add more on dips down to Rs 160, wait for the upside target of Rs 184 in the next three to four weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 155.
Hitachi Energy India: Buy | LTP: Rs 3,105.35 | Stop-Loss: Rs 2,910 | Target: Rs 3,440 | Return: 11 percent
The stock price has been in an intermediate uptrend over the last few months, as we observe upside movement as per the bullish sequence of higher tops and bottoms.
After showing a recent higher bottom reversal around Rs 2,700 levels in the mid of February, the stock witnessed a sustainable upside bounce on Friday, which indicates chances of further upmove. Volume and daily 14 period RSI show positive indication.
One may look to buy Hitachi Energy at CMP (Rs 3,105), add more on dips down to Rs 3,025 and wait for the upside target of Rs 3,440 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stop-loss of Rs 2,910.
Aster DM Healthcare: Buy | LTP: Rs 189.85 | Stop-Loss: Rs 176 | Target: Rs 210 | Return: 11 percent
After showing minor weakness from highs in the last couple of weeks, the stock has witnessed a sustainable upside bounce in this week. It is now making an attempt to stage an upside breakout of consolidation movement (type of triangle pattern) around Rs 192-194 levels.
Hence, a sustainable upmove above the hurdle is likely to open a sharp upside momentum for the stock. The volume has started to expand on Friday with an upmove in the stock and weekly 14 period RSI indicates chances of further strengthening of upside momentum for the stock.
One may look to buy Aster DM Healthcare at CMP (Rs 189.85), add more on dips down to Rs 182 and wait for the upside target of Rs 210 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stop-loss of Rs 176.
Expert: Ruchit Jain, lead research at 5paisa.com
Voltas: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,252.50 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,213 | Target: Rs 1,320 | Return: 5.4 percent
In the recent corrective phase, prices have managed to form a support around 200-day EMA (exponential moving average) and have given some buying interest in last few sessions. During the last week, we witnessed price upmove with increasing volumes and the stock has also closed above its swing high which is a positive sign.
This price-volume breakout could lead to further strength in the stock in the short term. The RSI oscillator is also indicating positive momentum and hence short term traders can look for a buying opportunity in the stock.
Traders can look to trade with a positive bias and buy in the range of Rs 1,252-1,240 for potential targets of Rs 1,292 and Rs 1,320 in the near term. Traders can place a stop-loss below Rs 1,213 on long positions.
Varun Beverages: Buy | LTP: Rs 953.80 | Stop-Loss: Rs 925 | Target: Rs 1,021 | Return: 7 percent
After some price-wise correction in the months of November and December, the stock has recovered gradually from its support and had formed 'Higher Top Higher Bottom' structure on short term charts. The price-volume structure indicates that the volumes are good on price upmove while corrections are backed with lower volumes.
Recently, the stock faced resistance in the range of Rs 950-960 a couple of times and a breakout above the higher end could lead to a resumption of the uptrend.
Hence, traders can look to trade with a positive bias and buy the stock on breakout above Rs 960 for potential targets of Rs 997 and Rs 1,021 in the near term. One can place a stop-loss below Rs 925 on long positions.
Expert: Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research (retail) at Kotak Securities
Punjab National Bank: Sell | LTP: Rs 37.75 | Stop-Loss: Rs 39 | Target: Rs 33 | Return: 12.6 percent
It is largely underperforming other PSU banks, which will put the stock under selling pressure if the market is weak. Secondly, the stock is in a broad trading range between Rs 45 and Rs 33.
It is currently in a downtrend and may drop to Rs 33 again. Sell at current levels and place stop-loss at Rs 39.
IRB Infrastructure: Buy | LTP: Rs 256.10 | Stop-Loss: Rs 225 | Target: Rs 325 | Return: 27 percent
The stock completed an upward movement when it touched the Rs 300 level. Currently, it is correcting the previous upmove. Based on the retracement and extension, it looks like the stock could drop to Rs 252 or Rs 245 in the worst-case scenario.
Since the primary trend is positive, we should buy between Rs 252 and Rs 245 with a medium to long-term outlook. Traders need to place a stop loss at Rs 225. After the completion of the correction, we are expecting the stock to retest its immediate high at Rs 303 and, in the best-case scenario, it may even go up to Rs 325, which was its final target. We think this can make the consolidation formation of the cup with handle.
UltraTech Cement: Sell | LTP: Rs 6,916.60 | Stop-Loss: Rs 7,100 | Target: Rs 6,500 | Return: 6 percent
For the first time since July 2021, the stock closed comfortably below the crucial support of Rs 7,000. It has been an equilibrium level for the stock since March 2021. Also, it was the lower limit of the broader trading range that the stock had set between the levels Rs 7,750 and Rs 7,000 for the last seven months.
It is a technical breakdown and the stock will validate it if it trades below last week's low, which was Rs 6,900. The stock may drop to Rs 6,600 or Rs 6,500 in the near future.
Sell with a trading view below the level of Rs 6,900 with a tight stop-loss at Rs 7,100.
Expert: Sameet Chavan, chief analyst-technical and derivatives, Angel One
Voltas: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,252.50 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,212 | Target: Rs 1,310 | Return: 4.6 percent
This stock has seen a smart surge in last 3-4 trading sessions despite the broader market sulking a bit. With Friday's upmove, the stock has confirmed a bullish breakout from the V pattern. This pattern has a bullish implication when accompanied with higher-than-average volumes.
All these requirements do meet here and hence we recommend buying this stock on a small decline towards Rs 1,240-1,235 for a trading target of Rs 1,310. The stop-loss can be placed at Rs 1,212.
Eveready Industries: Buy | Rs 359.70 | Stop-Loss: Rs 318 | Target: Rs 392 | Return: 9 percent
In last three trading sessions, all of a sudden, the tide turned upwards for this stock. Before anyone could even realise, the prices have soared more than 20 percent in such a short span.
More importantly, if we take a glance at the volume activity, we can see some abnormal volumes in this counter, which is an indication of immense buying interest.
Since the stock has moved quite a lot, we recommend buying this stock on a decline towards Rs 345-340 for a near term target of Rs 392. The stop-loss can be placed at Rs 318.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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