Technical View: 25,200 crucial for further upward journey in Nifty 50, Bank Nifty bulls target 56,500

Nifty outlook for October 10

The Nifty 50 rebounded after a day of profit-booking-induced break, and encountered resistance at 25,200 for the third consecutive session on October 9, signalling the importance of this zone for a further sharp upward journey toward 25,350–25,450. A move above this level could initiate a new leg of the uptrend. As long as the index sustains above the 25,000 support level, which coincides with the midline of the Bollinger Bands, the possibility of an uptrend remains high in the upcoming sessions, according to experts.

After an initial hour of volatility, the Nifty 50 gained strength and climbed up to 25,199 in late trade. The index surged by 136 points (0.54 percent) to 25,182 and formed a bullish candle on the daily charts, closing above the August swing high of 25,154.

The index sustained above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, as well as all key moving averages. The RSI turned higher to 58.03 with a positive crossover, while the MACD showed a bullish crossover with further strength in the histogram, signalling a healthy trend ahead.

"A decisive breakout above 25,200 could open the door for a fresh leg of the rally, potentially triggering short-covering and a swift move toward 25,350," said Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at Centrum Broking.

According to Jain, momentum indicators and oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in buy mode, suggesting that any dips are likely to attract buying interest.

"The immediate support has now shifted higher to 25,000, and as long as the index holds above this level, a move towards 25,400 in the October series appears likely," he added.

The weekly options data also highlighted 25,200 as the immediate resistance, with support in the 25,100–25,000 zone.

The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,200 and 25,500 strikes. The maximum Call writing occurred at the 25,400, 25,600, and 25,550 strikes, while the 25,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,100 and 24,500 strikes. The maximum Put writing was seen at the 25,100, 25,000, and 25,200 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty, which saw consolidation with a small correction in the previous session, also gained strength and rose by 174 points to 56,192. The index smartly defended its previous day's low of 55,800 and formed a bullish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe, indicating some intraday volatility but a strong close.

Technically, the banking index is trading above its crucial moving averages, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias and suggesting underlying strength in the banking space.

Notably, the daily RSI has taken support near the 60.96 level and has since rebounded, signalling a potential continuation of upward momentum. This bounce from a key support zone in the RSI adds conviction to the bullish setup. Overall, the price action and momentum indicators point toward a constructive outlook, provided the index sustains above its immediate support levels.

"The zone of 55,900–55,800 will act as crucial support for the index, while on the upside, the zone of 56,400–56,500 will act as an immediate hurdle. Any sustainable move above 56,500 will lead to a sharp upside rally up to 57,200 in the short term," said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, continued to provide comfort for bulls by staying below short-term moving averages, falling by 1.87 percent to the 10.12 zone.

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