Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the Founder and Director of Ayan Analytics, which has developed ZodiacAnalyst, a research software with time and price charting tools.
Review
The weekly candle is compressed. We were expecting the week to be 50:50 between the bulls and the bears, with a slight tilt towards the sellers. From the weekly opening, the markets saw a negative close. MNCs hogged the limelight during the week, while FMCGs tried their best to participate, but failed.
The capital goods sector was the real performer, as the manufacturing firms recovered well, especially the ones in specialty engineering. During the week, both sides had equal opportunities to earn buy shorts and longs, and market-neutral baskets would have done well.
Technical
The technicals of last week remain valid. Divergence on the weekly and monthly charts suggest caution. The week ahead is clearly negative, with the bank and IT indices trending down, while auto , infra, capital goods, and MNC indices indicating positive breakout.
Real estate, especially the consumer space, is turning positive. All the technical points mentioned in the previous week's write up remain valid. Below 22,284, the nifty will be vulnerable to panic selling.
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Time map
The week ahead is negative, and the sellers have an edge in the market. After the solar date, the auto and capital goods indices have seen a positive breakout and can continue their run, while the broader markets might witness selling pressure. Hence, portfolios are being reshuffled, primarily IT and bank stocks, indicating major divergence on the weekly chart. This has happened under the influence of nakshatra Kruttika, which has a major impact on trends.
PSU companies, especially natural resource and oil manufacturing companies (OMCs), are showing positive signals. Index-heavy stocks trending negative means the index will remain under pressure for a few more days. We are expecting a big negative candle during the week.
Jupiter 0 Venus on 23rd at 1:40 pm, during market hours is bad, will lead to ego clashes and a lot of confusion. Unexpected statements by senior politicians will disturb the market sentiment, which can trigger major negativity.
Day-wise weekly forecast
May 21, 2024: Tuesday: 13: Swati: volatile day – good after 1 pm
The tithi sparks volatility, and market participants tend to react in haste, often leading to bad trades. Before 12:14 pm, sentiment in the markets could be negative and even seasoned traders will feel the pressure. On the other hand, the influence of the nakshatra Swati will be very strong. It is one of the best nakshatras for investment. NBFCs could be the best buy for the day, and delayed participation will lead to better profits. BTST (buy today, sell tomorrow) is highly recommended.
May 22, 2024: Wednesday: S.14: Vishakha: bad day
A slightly higher opening and positive sentiment in the markets is expected. Sector leaders will hog the limelight today — whether bullish or bearish depends on the individual stock. Index funds will be very active, and the auto sector will continue to do well.
STBT (sell today, buy tomorrow) is highly recommended.
May 23, 2024: Thursday: Pournima: Anuradha: happy day
The tithi is positive. The full moon indicates profit-booking will give better results, rather than fresh investment. The nakshatra Anuradha represents a mature speculator or a well-informed person, so look for opportunities where you have a strong hand. Natural resources, mining, and related companies will attract big ticket investments. The nakshatra also indicates that corporates where promoters hold above 65 percent of the equity are the best for investment, today. Avoid small trades today.
May 24th, 2024: Friday: K.1: Anuradha-10.30/Jyestha: bullish day
A gap down opening offers the best opportunity today. Look for reversal or mean reversion indicators and take a contrarian bet against the market sentiment. Metals will be in the limelight, steel and aluminium-related companies will offer a lot of trading opportunities.
Post 10:30 am, the price movement will be aggressive, so any breakout should not be missed or underestimated.
The Jupiter-Venus conjunction on the 23rd will significantly influence the markets for at least the next 21 days. We will provide more detailed analysis based on observations on the 23rd and 24th, as these insights can help take profitable positions. It’s crucial to remember that people resist change and continue to repeat the same actions, expecting different results. We've emphasised this repeatedly to instil the idea that changing your habits can lead to a better future.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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