Stock Market Today: Top 10 things to know before the market opens

Benchmark Sensex and Nifty are likely to open marginally higher on September 29 as trends in the GIFT Nifty indicate a positive start for the broader index with a gain of 15 points.

The BSE Sensex plunged 610 points or 0.92 percent to 65,508, while the Nifty50 declined 193 points to 19,523 in the previous session. "On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty has closed below the 19,600-19,550 zone where multiple supports were placed. This is a sign of further weakness," Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

Hence, on the way down, he feels, the index can slip further towards 19,500-19,440, which is the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 19,224-20,222.

The pivot point calculator indicates that the Nifty may be taking support at 19,489, followed by 19,424 and 19,320. On the higher side, 19,699 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 19,764 and 19,869.

Stay tuned to Moneycontrol to find out what happens in the currency and equity markets today. We have collated a list of important headlines across news platforms, which could impact Indian as well as international markets.

GIFT Nifty

The GIFT Nifty indicates a marginally positive start for the broader index with a gain of 15 points. GIFT Nifty futures stood at 19,638 points after making a high of 19,649 points.

Trade setup for Friday: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

US Markets

Stock futures were slightly higher on Thursday evening as investors prepared to end a difficult September. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 53 points, or 0.1 percent. S&P 500 futures rose 0.09 percent, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1 percent. During Thursday’s regular trading, stocks closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.59 percent, while the Dow ticked up by 0.35 percent. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.83 percent. The gains came as the 10-year Treasury yield backed off from a fresh 15-year high.

However, the day’s action did little to mitigate sharp losses in equities for the month and the quarter. The S&P 500 is set to finish the month down 4.6 percent and the quarter lower by 3.4 percent. The Nasdaq Composite is off nearly 6 percent in September, and down 4.3 percent for the quarter. This month will be the worst in 2023 for both the indices. The Dow is on track for a 3 percent decline this month and a 2.2 percent fall for the quarter. The major averages are also on pace for modest losses on the week: The S&P 500 is off about 0.5 percent, while the Dow is down 0.9 percent. The Nasdaq is off 0.1 percent.

European markets

European stock markets broke a five-session losing streak on Thursday, despite continued caution, as mining and banking stocks advanced. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.36 percent higher after ending Wednesday at a six-month low. The basic resources sector climbed 2.3 percent, finding some support from a rise in Chinese industrial profits in August, while banks gained 1 percent.

Preliminary inflation figures from Germany showed inflation slowing more than expected, with the harmonised data displaying a 4.3 percent increase in consumer prices since September 2022. It is the lowest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Asia-Pacific markets broadly fell overnight after notching some gains on Wednesday as an uptick in Treasury yields and oil prices dented investor sentiment on Wall Street. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hit its highest levels since 2007 and U.S. crude futures popped more than 3 percent to settle at $93.68 per barrel.

Asian markets

Asia-Pacific markets largely climbed in the final trading day of the week, mirroring moves on Wall Street. This comes as traders assess to key economic data out of Japan, including the September inflation rate for Tokyo. The capital’s data is seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends.

Tokyo’s consumer price index rose 2.8 percent in September from a year ago, softening from the 2.9 percent gain in August. The core inflation rate, which strips out prices of fresh food, came in at 2.5 percent, lower than the 2.6 percent expected by a Reuters poll. Japan also saw unemployment, industrial output and retail sales data for August.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.1 percent in early trade, while the Topix continued to extend losses and slid 0.2 percent. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.31 percent, rebounding after a three day losing streak. Futures for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index stood at 17,554, also pointing to a stronger start compared to the HSI’s close of 17,373.03. South Korean and mainland Chinese markets are closed for a holiday.

Overnight in the US, all three major indexes rallied ahead of the US personal consumption expenditures price index reading due Friday. The PCE reading is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric.

TCS continues to be India's most valuable brand, but combined value of top brands drops 4%

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) continues to be India's most valuable brand at $43 billion, according to Kantar BrandZ Top 75 most valuable Indian brands report. TCS continues to successfully capitalize on global demand for digital transformation, despite a tough year for the business technology category in general, the data, insights and consulting company said.

However, the uncertainty in global markets has resulted in decline in the total value of top 75 brands. "Brands like TCS and Infosys have seen decline in brand value due to their exposure to overseas sales. Some of the growth these firms had last year was one off and was because of their customers who were spending big on tech. But that has settled down now," Deepender Rana, Executive Managing Director- South Asia, Insights Division, Kantar, told Moneycontrol.

The decline has been driven by brands in the business technology and services platforms category, which have a major presence in international markets, and therefore have been impacted by global pressures, recession threats and geopolitical instability, the report said.

NSE indices rejig: HDFC Bank to see $70 million inflow, PowerGrid, Adani Ent other gainers

HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, Kotak Mahindra Bank, State Bank of India and Adani Enterprises are among the few stocks that will receive net passive inflows as a result of the NSE index changes, including Nifty Bank, Nifty, Nifty Next 50, and CPSE. These weight changes are set to reflect from today i.e., September 29, following scheduled changes yesterday during the semi-annual reshuffling.

According to Nuvama Institutional Equities, HDFC Bank will receive the highest inflows of $70 million. Other stocks such as Power Grid to get around $64 million inflows, Shriram Finance ($59 million), and Trent ($54 million). TVS Motor to get a $40 million inflow, and PNB to get $21 mln while Adani Enterprises to get around a $27 million inflow.

On the flip side, NTPC sees outflows of $45 million, followed by Page Industries ($28 million), HDFC AMC ($25 million), IndusInd Bank ($23 million), ACC ($19 million), Indus Tower ($14 million), and Adani Ports ($14 million). Among CPSE index stocks, ONGC, Coal India, Bharat Electronics, NHPC, Oil India, and Cochin Shipyard will see marginal outflows. Within the Nifty Bank constituents, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Bank of Baroda, AU SFB, and Federal Bank will witness some outflows due to lowering of weights.

Current account deficit surges to $9.2 billion in June quarter

India's current account deficit (CAD) surged to $9.2 billion in the first quarter of 2023-24, more than seven times what it was in the preceding quarter. According to data released on September 28 by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), CAD in April-June amounted to 1.1 percent of GDP.

"The widening of CAD on a quarter-on-quarter basis was primarily on account of a higher trade deficit coupled with a lower surplus in net services and decline in private transfer receipts," the RBI said. The CAD in January-March was $1.3 billion, or 0.2 percent of GDP. In April-June 2022, it stood at $17.9 billion, or 2.1 percent of GDP.

India investors are buying dividend stocks as rally stalls

A gauge of top dividend paying firms in India is poised to outperform the country’s key equity benchmark by the most in 13 years as investors seek to hedge against any potential selloff in the market. The NSE Nifty Dividend Opportunities 50 Index has rallied 22% this year while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced a tad below 9%, putting the gap between the two measures near a reading in 2010 according to a report from Bloomberg.

India’s benchmark gauges surged to their all-time highs this month, with a third of the top 200 firms on the NSE index trading at 50% above their respective 52-week lows. Still, the rally is showing signs of cooling as investors book profits in sectors such as media firms.

Online gaming to attract 28% GST from Oct 1: CBIC

CBIC is ready to implement 28 percent GST on online gaming from October 1, its Chairman Sanjay Kumar Agarwal said on September 28. "All states need to pass it in their respective assemblies," he further added. Online gaming companies being sent GST notices for evasion of 28 percent is as per uniform stand as in the case of Gameskraft, he said.

"States need to pass in their assemblies or issue ordinance by September 30 to implement 28 percent GST on online gaming from October 1," he further added.

Agarwal further said that a review would be held six months after implementation of 28 percent tax on online gaming. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council announced in July that bets placed in online gaming, horse racing, and casinos will attract a 28 percent tax at full value.

India likely to ban sugar exports in new season beginning October

India is likely to ban sugar exports during the upcoming season, starting October 1, government officials told Moneycontrol on September 28. A notification in this regard can be expected in the first week of November, they added.

The sugar season starts in October of a year and ends in September the next year. After selling a record 11 million tonnes (MT) of sugar in 2021-22, India restricted the amount of exports during 2022-23 to ensure supply in domestic markets and keep a lid on prices.

“In the beginning of the 2022-23 sugar year, the government restricted sugar exports to around 6 MT. Even this quota is being eliminated with rising prices. Our main priority is to keep domestic prices low,” an official told Moneycontrol.

Oil Prices

Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Thursday after surging to the highest settlement in 2023 in the previous session as a steep drop in US crude stocks added to worries of tight global supplies. Brent crude futures climbed 16 cents to $96.71 a barrel by 0001 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 20 cents to $93.88. US crude stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels last week to 416.3 million barrels, government data showed, far exceeding the 320,000-barrel drop analysts expected in a Reuters poll.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub, delivery point for US crude futures, fell by 943,000 barrels in the week to just under 22 million barrels, the lowest since July 2022, data showed.

Stockpiles at Cushing have been falling closer to historic low levels due to strong refining and export demand, prompting concerns about quality of the remaining oil at the hub and whether it will fall below minimum operating levels.

Dollar index

The Dollar index traded 0.16 percent lower in futures at 106.32, whereas the value of one dollar hovered near Rs 83.19.

Gold prices

Gold steadied on Thursday, although prices hovered near a six-month low hit in the previous session due to an elevated dollar and Treasury yields, with markets awaiting U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

Spot gold held its ground at $1,874.49 per ounce by 0435 GMT after shedding 1.4 percent, its biggest daily decline since July, on Wednesday. US gold futures were flat at $1,891.30. Data on Wednesday showed orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose in August and business spending on equipment appeared to regain momentum.

“Durable goods (figures) were higher than expected — that’s why the 10-year (Treasury yield) was higher, that’s why the dollar also moved higher, and that’s why we saw selling pressure for gold,” said Hugo Pascal, a precious metals trader at InProved.

The dollar hit a 10-month high against its major peers, while Treasury yields climbed a fresh 16-year peak as investors bet the U.S. economy will outperform its competitors in an environment of high interest rates.

FIIs and DIIs

Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 3,364.22 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) bought Rs 2,711.48 crore worth of stocks on September 28, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed.

With inputs from Reuters and other agencies.