Closing Bell: Nifty at 19,650, Sensex rises 364 pts; all sectors in the green

Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities:

Nifty ended the week with a modest gain despite the selling in the banking sector. Overall, sentiment is expected to stay positive as long as it maintains above the critical support level of 19,500, as put writers are likely to offer support at this level. On the upside, resistance is positioned around 19,750-19,800. A strategy of buying on dips would be favorable as long as it holds above 19,500.

Aditya Gaggar, Director of Progressive Shares

On the weekly chart, Nifty50 has made a Dragonfly DOJI candlestick pattern which indicates a strong comeback of the bulls and a potential reversal of the trend. The zone of 19,530-19,330 will be a strong support area while on the higher side, the Index has to breach the 19,750-19,800 zone to ensure a reversal of the trend. BankNifty has tested its support level of 43,850 and reversed but it lacks momentum. A convincing close above 44,800 is a must for confirming trend reversal.

At the lower end of the rising channel, the FMCG sector has made a DOJI pattern which suggests a probable reversal of the trend. A sharp turnaround was seen in the IT sector and plenty of the components are hinting towards a reversal of trend (Quarterly numbers may affect the trend). As indicated in the previous edition, the PSU Banking sector has formed a Spinning Top candle which indicates a pause in its northward journey. Frontline Realty stocks are giving a sign of a consolidation breakout, one should keep an eye on the sector. From our fundamental coverage universe, some of the stocks that look strong (technically) include Punjab Chemicals, Supreme Petro, HBL Power, Ultramarine & Pigments. Volatility is anticipated due to the quarterly results around the corner.

Amol Athawale, Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities:

While positive Asian market cues helped local gauges maintain upward bias for the second straight session, RBI keeping policy rates steady in the MPC meet also cheered investors and lifted the market sentiment. Realty shares hogged the limelight after taking the hammering in recent trades amid hopes that no change in interest rates may boost home sales, especially during the festive season.

Technically, after a sharp fall the Nifty took support near 19350 and bounced back sharply. Currently, the index is trading near the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average), and on weekly charts it has formed a Hammer kind of formation which is largely positive.

As long as the index is trading above the 50-day SMA or 19575 level, the positive sentiment is likely to continue. Above the same, it could move up till 20-day SMA or 19800 and on further upside the index may also continue upsurge till 19850. On the flip side, a fresh selloff is possible only after the dismissal of 19575 and below the same, the index could retest the level of 19450-19350.

For Bank Nifty, 44000 would act as a key support zone and above the same, it could rally till the 50-day SMA or 44800-45000 levels. On the other hand, below 44000, the uptrend would be vulnerable.

Ajit Mishra, SVP - Technical Research, Religare Broking:

Markets extended rebound amid volatility and gained over half a percent. After the gap-up start, Nifty inched gradually higher however the existence of a hurdle at 20 EMA capped the momentum. Finally, it managed to close around the day’s high at 19,653.50 level; up by 0.55%. All key sectors contributed to the move wherein realty, financials and pharma were the top performers.

The broader indices also edged higher and gained over half a percent each.

The recent bounce has certainly eased some pressure but we are now again at the hurdle of the short term moving average (20 EMA). We need sustainability above the same for a further recovery towards 19800 else the decline would resume. Meanwhile, traders should remain focused on stock selection and position management until we see clarity over the next directional move.

Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

The Nifty opened gap up for the second consecutive day and traded with a positive bias throughout the day to close with gains of ~107 points. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has managed to close above the 40-day moving average (19610) which is a Bullish sign. On the weekly charts we can observe that the Nifty has closed in the green and in term of pattern it has formed a Dragonfly Doji which has bullish implications.

We expect this pullback to continue till 19778 – 19800 where resistance in the form of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 20-day moving average is placed. In the case of a dip towards 19530 – 19580 it should be used as a buying opportunity.

Bank Nifty opened gap up and thereafter consolidated for most part of the day. On the hourly momentum indicator, we can observe positive divergence and crossover which is a bullish sign. We expect the Bank Nifty to provide a pullback till 44800 – 45000 from short term perspective. In case of a dip we it should be used as a buying opportunity.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities:

Both Nifty and Sensex were flat to marginal positives in the past week. Nifty Midcap Index lost around 0.7% while BSE SmallCap Index gained around 0.6%. Macro sentiments remained volatile as frailties in European and US amid volatile crude oil prices and rising US bond yields. Concerns about elevated interest rates weighed on the sentiment, although falling crude oil prices gave some relief. Brent crude fell 10% in the past week to US$88.3/bbl.

Indian equity markets remained concerned about slowdown, higher interest rates and valuation.

Major sectors were mixed on week-on week basis with Nifty Reality, Nifty IT, Media and Consumption gaining the most. While key sectors that lost were Bank Nifty, Nifty Pharma, Energy, Auto and Metals. Within the Nifty Index, Bajaj Finserve (+4.6%), Titan (+4.1%) and Bajaj Finance (+3.8%) gained the most, while ONGC (-5.3%), NTPC (-4.1%) and Hindalco (-4.0%) lost the most.

FPIs were net sellers, in the past week, similar to the trend seen in other emerging markets. While DIIs were net buyers in the same period. On the economy front, GST collections for August (collected in September) were 10.2% higher YoY at Rs 1.63 tn (July: Rs1.59 tn).

We expect the market to take cues from the upcoming earnings season. We expect the Q2FY24 net income of the Nifty-50 Index to increase 23% YoY and remain flat QoQ.

In International news, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report expected today is expected to provide a major test for Wall Street, with investors fearful that if the tight labor market holds up the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Many market participants are hoping a somewhat softer jobs report will break the fever in bond yields, which have risen sharply and weighed on equities.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 16-year high this week, rising as much as 4.884%. It last hovered above 4.7%. In Europe, data releases for today includes German industrial orders for August, French trade data and Italian retail sales data for the same month. In Asia, Chinese authorities are signaling a softer stance on once-stringent data rules, among recent moves to ease regulation for business, especially foreign ones.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:

The risk of higher inflation led the RBI to become more realistic in their policy approach. The central bank maintained a hawkish tone on liquidity management, as they may consider OMO to contain liquidity in the system, which led to India's 10-year yield inching higher. The market, however, reacted positively, as the status quo on the growth rate and a further drop in oil prices provided near-term support.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee ended flat at 83.24 per dollar versus previous close of 83.25.

Market Close: Benchmark indices ended higher for the second consecutive session on October 6 with Nifty around 19,650.

At close, the Sensex was up 364.06 points or 0.55 percent at 65,995.63, and the Nifty was up 107.70 points or 0.55 percent at 19,653.50. About 2229 shares advanced, 1291 shares declined, and 156 shares unchanged.

Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Titan Company, IndusInd Bank and Tata Consumer Products are among the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers included HUL, ONGC, Coal India, Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints.

All the sectoral indices ended in the green with realty index up 3 percent, while Information Technology, FMCG, Metal, Auto, Power, Healthcare up 0.4-1 percent.

Broader indices performed inline with main indices with BSE midcap and smallcap indices rising 0.5 percent each.

Sensex Today | Piyush Baranwal, Sr. Fund Manager (Fixed Income), WhiteOak Capital Asset Management:

Status quo in today’s policy indicates MPC’s comfort with moderating trajectory for CPI and RBI is now using tighter liquidity including through OMO sales to accelerate transmission of past policy measures to drive inflation towards its 4% target. As a side benefit, this should also help ward off pressure on the external front as global markets adjust to the ‘higher for longer’ rates and tighter financial conditions.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View On Manappuram Finance

-Overweight, target price Rs 183 per share
-Proposed fresh equity issue of Rs 1,500 crore in subsidiary Asirvad Microfinance via IPO
-This is potentially a positive development as it could unlock some value for MGFL
-Company is trading at one-year forward P/BV of 1x (1 S.D. below its five-year mean)
-Company is trading at P/E of 5.3x for FY23-26 EPS CAGR of 24 percent
-Company is trading at FY24-26 RoE of average 19.5 percent

Sensex Today | Srikanth Subramanian, CEO, Kotak Cherry:

It comes as no surprise that policy rates remained unchanged. This is in-line with the expectations and markets are happy about it. One of the major concerns with the current macro situation is to maintain the right balance of liquidity and inflation in the system, without compromising the growth engines of the economy.

Jul – Sep inflation is seen at 6.4% vs earlier projected 6.2% with FY24 projection at 5.4%. These figures still show uncertainties due to dependency on food prices, monsoons and crude prices. All the major central banks of the world have retained their rates in their latest decisions except for ECB which hiked the rates by 25 bps but indicated rates might be peaking out.

Indian equity and debt markets will now be anchored by economic data around the world and majorly US. Fed commentary has been crucial over the past few months with the Fed chair sounding resilient to tame the inflation even if it demands increasing rate further. In the current week, labor market data dictated both US markets as well as Asian markets including India. Markets are actively looking for cues for the trajectory of future interest rates. It will be a wait and watch for both central banks as well as the markets.

Sensex Today | BSE Realty Index rose 3 percent supported by Godrej Properties, DLF, Macrotech Developers

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View on Tata Motors

-Overweight rating, target price Rs 711 per share
-JLR posted strong Q2 volumes
-Wholesales up 29 percent YoY, & guided for FCF of £300mn for quarter
-A strong mix should support Q2 margins
-Q2 forms upside risk to FY24 EBIT margin estimate of 6.6 percent
-Tata should be a de-leveraging play in FY24 & India EV play in FY25

Stock Market LIVE Updates |Jefferies On Godrej Consumer Products

-Buy call, target price Rs 1,200 per share
-India Q2 volume growth moderated to a mid-single digit
-Volume growth impacted by adverse weather conditions
-Home care did better versus personal care, while acquired Raymond portfolio saw QoQ improvement
-International business saw double-digit growth across Indonesia & GAUM in CC terms
-GAUM saw the impact of naira depreciation in rupee terms
-Margin expansion should be robust YoY across businesses
-Margin expansion supports earning growth despite a weak volume print

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Arbitral Tribunal has passed an award of Rs 72.34 crores in favour of HFCL.

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was up 405.12 points or 0.62 percent at 66,036.69, and the Nifty was up 117 points or 0.60 percent at 19,662.80. About 2001 shares advanced, 1116 shares declined, and 98 shares unchanged.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Tata Motors Group global wholesales at 3,42,376 in Q2 FY24

The Tata Motors Group global wholesales in Q2 FY24, including Jaguar Land Rover were at 3,42,376, higher by 7%, as compared to Q2 FY23.

Global wholesales of all Tata Motors’ commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo range in Q2 FY24 were at 106,620, higher by 3%, over Q2 FY23.

Global wholesales of Tata Motors passenger vehicles in Q2 FY24 were at 1,38,939, lower by 3% as compared to Q2 FY23.

Global wholesales for Jaguar Land Rover were 96,817 vehicles, higher by 29%. Jaguar wholesales for the quarter were 13,560 vehicles, while Land Rover wholesales for the quarter were 83,257 vehicles.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Zydus Lifesciences gets final USFDA nod for Sugammadex Injection

Zydus Lifesciences has received final approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for Sugammadex Injection, 200 mg/2 mL (100 mg/mL) and 500 mg/5 mL (100 mg/mL), Single-Dose Vial (USRLD: Bridion Injection, 200 mg/2 mL (100 mg/mL) and 500 mg/5 mL (100 mg/mL)).

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Tata Motors Reports Q2 FY24 Global Wholesale Numbers: 7% Increase Led by Jaguar Land Rover

In Q2 FY24, Tata Motors Group's global wholesales, including Jaguar Land Rover, reached 342,376 units, up by 7% compared to Q2 FY23. Commercial vehicle wholesales were 106,620 units, up by 3% over Q2 FY23. Tata Motors' passenger vehicle wholesales in Q2 FY24 were 138,939 units, down by 3% compared to Q2 FY23. Jaguar Land Rover's global wholesales were 96,817 vehicles, a 29% increase, with Jaguar wholesaling 13,560 vehicles and Land Rover wholesaling 83,257 vehicles in the quarter.

Sensex Today | Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Indian Rupee appreciated slightly as RBI maintained status quo and kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in its monetary policy meeting so as to achieve its medium-term target of 4% inflation. According to RBI, Indian economic activity has shown resilience, and the overall macroeconomic indicators remain favourable with strong manufacturing and services PMI numbers. GDP and CPI inflation projections too were maintained. RBI Governor’s statement did not raise major red flags for the Indian economy except for concerns over food price spike due to lower acreage of pulses and El Nino conditions. Further, positive domestic markets and decline in crude oil prices also supported Rupee. US Dollar declined as traders trimmed the positions ahead of the monthly job report today. US weekly unemployment claims was higher than the prior week but lower than consensus.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on positive Asian and European markets and softening of global crude oil prices. Softness in US Dollar may also support Rupee. A no-surprise monetary policy by the RBI may also support the domestic currency. However, FII outflows may cap sharp upside. Traders may take cues from US non-farm payrolls report, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate data. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.80 to Rs 83.70.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | RBI monetary policy by Sampath Reddy, Chief Investment Officer, Bajaj Allianz Life

The RBI maintained the status quo on policy rates and stance, aligning with the market expectations. The headline CPI projection for FY24 remains unchanged at 5.4%, despite uncertainties around production due to the lower kharif sowing, low reservoir levels, and volatile global food and energy prices. The RBI governor reiterated the intention to bring inflation to a level of 4% on a durable basis. In line with its monetary policy stance, the RBI may need to consider OMO-sales to manage liquidity as necessary.

Given recent inflationary pressures driven by food & vegetable prices in India, the extended tightening measures by global central banks, and the RBI's commitment to lower domestic inflation to 4%, the outlook for interest rates appears cautious in the near term. The possibility of OMO-sales to manage liquidity may pose short-term pressure on interest rates. We believe that the RBI's future actions will depend on evolving data, and we continue to expect a long pause.”

Stock Market LIVE Updates | NLC India gains over 5% after approving new unit for renewable power ops

Shares of NLC India surged over 5 percent amid higher volumes. The stock informed exchanges that it approved a new unit for renewable power energy business.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View On Godrej Consumer Products

-Overweight, target price Rs 1,072 per share
-India's Q2 organic volume growth of mid-single digits is lower
-Growth lower than 10-11 percent over the last two quarters
-Management indicated Q2 demand, in general, was affected by weak macro conditions
-Management indicated that Q2 demand was affected by adverse weather
-International, RCCL, margin improvement – on track
-GCPL will register healthy YoY EBITDA margin expansion across markets

Sensex Today | BSE Smallcap index rose 0.5 percent led by PNB Gilts, Monarch Networth Capital, Quick Heal Technologies

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM

The Sensex was up 395.14 points or 0.60 percent at 66,026.71, and the Nifty was up 116.40 points or 0.60 percent at 19,662.20. About 1951 shares advanced, 1130 shares declined, and 109 shares unchanged.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Nomura View On Tata Motors

-Buy call, target price Rs 786 per share
-JLR Q2 retail volumes up 21 percent YoY, EBIT margin estimate at 7 percent
-JLR expects positive FCF of GBP 300 mn in Q2FY24 (approximately GBP 450 mn in Q1)
-See a strong orderbook & healthy growth of retail demand
-Believe with improved production in H2FY24, JLR is on track to meet estimate
-Estimate is of 4.06 lakh (Ex-China JV) units for FY24
-Stock is currently trading at 4.3x FY25 EV/EBITDA

Sensex Today | European indices gained on Friday as market participants brace themselves for U.S. jobs data later in the session.

Sensex Today | Gold pauses declines as investors hold breath for US payrolls report

Gold edged up from seven-month lows on Friday as the U.S. dollar and bond yields, which scaled fresh highs this week, took a breather as investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data that could affect the interest rate outlook.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,820.94 per ounce by 0559 GMT but was on track to extend losses to a second consecutive week, shedding 1.5% so far. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.2% to $1,834.80.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | EaseMyTrip partners with Cover Genius

EaseMyTrip.com announced its strategic partnership with Cover Genius, the insurtech for embedded protection. By integrating with XCover, Cover Genius’ award-winning global distribution platform, EaseMyTrip customers can add Cancel For Any Reason (CFAR) travel protection along with the embedded
comprehensive travel protection when they book their tickets.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | CLSA On NHPC

-Buy call, target price Rs 63 per share
-Was NHPC hurt by Teesta river floods which breached Teesta 3 project’s dam?
-We do not see any material impact on NHPC
-No impact from the glacial lake outburst flood
-Flood driven flash flood as none of its projects were materially impacted
-NHPC’s Teesta 5 project shut-down during the off-season
-Shut-down project will have seen a minuscule impact
-Project will be fully recovered via its insurance policy
-NHPC is at cornerstone of India net zero
-At cornerstone providing clean-green despatchable green power
-Company growing its return earning equity (Exminority) of 110 percent over CL23-28
-Return earning equity at 14 percent growth over past 5-years

Sensex Today​ | Ajit Kabi, Banking analyst at LKP Securities:

RBI kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%. This is the fourth consecutive time the RBI maintained the status quo. Additionally, the retail inflation is projected at 5.4% (unchanged) for FY24. RBI has raised the limit of gold loan given by urban cooperative banks to 4 lakhs from 2 lakhs earlier. To manage liquidity, RBI may enter into OMO sales.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Citi View On IT Services:

-EBIT growth required to meet consensus FY24 (H2 Over H1) is 5 percent-78 percent
-Tough ask in a slow growth set up
-Weaker seasonality & with wage hikes pending for a decent part of coverage
-FY25 consensus EBIT estimates also look high due to challenging macro environment
-Some of large deals will likely start ramping up by Q4FY24
-These mega deals are margin dilutive in initial years
-As valuations not cheap historically, earnings trends are still going to be important 
-Only Infosys/HCLT are rated neutral; all other stocks are sell rated

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was up 316.46 points or 0.48 percent at 65,948.03, and the Nifty was up 91.90 points or 0.47 percent at 19,637.70. About 1914 shares advanced, 1156 shares declined, and 99 shares unchanged.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Concord Biotech hits 52-week high after Jefferies initiates 'buy' call; sees 19% upside

Shares of Concord Biotech surged 8 percent to hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,177.00 on October 6 after foreign brokerage firm Jefferies initiated 'buy' call on the stock. Jefferies remains bullish on the pharma company and believes its wide portfolio and adequate capacities would drive industry leading revenue growth and operating leverage. On that account, the firm rolled out a price target of Rs 1,260 for the stock, reflecting a 19 percent upside potential from Thursday's closing price. Read More

Sensex Today | Shishir Baijal, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India:

We welcome Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to continue the pause in REPO RATE for the fourth consecutive time. Continuation of pause in the Repo rate was much needed albeit looming inflationary pressure arising from – rising crude prices and rupee depreciation. By pausing the policy rate, the central bank continues to maintain its focus on economic growth, which is facing headwinds primarily from the external factors, such as slowdown in global growth, high energy prices and geopolitical tensions; and remains cautious of inflationary pressure as well.

Measures to reduce excess liquidity and improve transmission of earlier policy rate hike measures align with price stability goals of the central bank. The decision will continue to maintain the existing momentum of residential real estate demand in India. Since the interest rate upcycle, the repo rate has been hiked by 250bps, resulting in 160bps rise in home loan rates. Since then, although the overall housing demand has remained upbeat, the lower housing segment or the affordable housing demand has witnessed a deceleration due to a substantial rise in the borrowing costs and other challenges. The stance today should be considered as a big relief for the housing sector of the country which has shown tremendous strength in the face of headwinds over the last year.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Thomas Cook India soars 4% on Crisil rating upgrade

Shares of Thomas Cook India Limited darted up 4 percent to Rs 119 in morning trade on October 6 after the rating agency Crisil upgraded the company's rating to AA-/Stable for the long-term and to CRISIL A1 for the short-term.

The upgrade comes on the back of Thomas Cook’s sharp revival after the pandemic and a significant increase in revenues across segments as it continues to maintain healthy operating margins benefitting cash generation, Crisil said in a statement on October 5. Read More

Sensex Today | Nifty Auto index rose 0.5 percent supported by Bosch, Bharat Forge, Maruti Suzuki:

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Vinyas Innovative Tech surges over 100% on debut

Vinyas Innovative Technologies Ltd shares debuted at a 100 percent premium to the issue price of Rs 165 on the NSE Emerge platform on October 6 after the initial public offering was subscribed over 43 times.

The stock opened at Rs 330 a share and touched a high of Rs 346. At 11.10 am, the stock was trading at Rs 340 on BSE, up 106 percent from its upper price band of Rs 165.

The engineering, and electronics manufacturing services company raised around Rs54.66 crore via IPO, which opened for subscription on September 27 and closed October 3. The proceeds from the issue will be used for meeting working capital requirements. Read More