Closing Bell: Sensex tanks 940 pts, Nifty ends below 24,000; Hero Moto, Bajaj Auto, Grasim worst hit

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities

Gold prices experienced volatility as Comex gold found support near $2,730 but struggled to break above $2,750. With the U.S. election results due in the next two days, market participants are expected to have mixed sentiments, likely resulting in a range-bound session between Rs 78,000 and Rs 79,000 in MCX. Once the election outcome is announced, gold could see a decisive move of around Rs 1,000-Rs 1,500 in the coming days. Key support levels lie between Rs 78,000- Rs 77,800, while resistance is positioned at Rs 79,000-Rs 79,175.

Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives, Angel One

A turbulent beginning to the New Samvat as the benchmark index tumbled 500 points during the day to test a fresh 4-month low. The Nifty50 index witnessed a one-sided fall, breaking all technical support caused by a correction in heavyweights, followed by broader market participation. Eventually, by the penultimate hours, some respite was seen, which pared down some of the initial losses and led Nifty to settle slightly below the 24,000 zone, shedding 1.30 % for the day.

From a technical point of view, the benchmark index has shown signs of a consolidation breakdown, and a similar move in a follow-up session could be devastating in the short term. Simultaneously, the derivative and technical parameters are in extremely oversold territory, and some respite from sell-off could uplift the overall sentiments. Caution is warranted in the current situation; it is also advisable to avoid unnecessary trade setups. On the level-specific front, a series of stiff resistance could be seen around the 24,200-24,400 subzone and a sustained breakthrough could only direct for potential reversal from the ongoing carnage. At the lower end of the spectrum, 23,900-23,800 withholds a pivotal support area, and a breakdown could drag the index lower towards 23,500-23,450, coinciding with the 200 SMA.

In the meantime, the US election, which is due in a day, is likely to raise the volatility bar and needs to be tracked closely for the intermediate trend analysis. For now, one must stay light on positions as India VIX heads northward to the 17-odd zone and maintain a stock-centric approach.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities

The Nifty has corrected below 24,000 as the index slipped from its recent consolidation pattern. Sentiment will likely remain weak in the short term or until it decisively moves above 24,100. It might extend its correction towards 23,650 and lower on the lower end. On the other hand, a decisive move above 24,100 could trigger a rally towards 24,500.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services

As expected, India is underperforming its global peers due to excess valuation. The ongoing selloff has deepened by weak Q2 earnings, dampening investor sentiment. Continued volatility is anticipated in the short-term, as attention shifts to the closely contested US presidential election. Additionally, key economic events, such as the US Fed and BoE policy decisions, will be critical in shaping market movements.

Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Nifty opened on a flat note and nosedived during the first half of the trading session. It witnessed some pullback during the second half, however closed the day in the red down ~309 points. on the daily charts we can observe that the five day consolidation range has broken down suggesting resumption of the down trend. On the downside, the Nifty is likely to drift towards 23,600 – 23,650 zone where the 40-week average is placed. On the upside, crucial resistance is placed at 24,368.

Bank Nifty also witnessed a sharp decline however it stayed within the broad range 52,000 – 51,000. The Bank Nifty is likely to trade within a range of 52,500 – 50,500 and trade with a negative bias. Crucial support is placed at 50,720 – 50,600 while resistance is placed at 51,750 – 51,800.

Ankita Pathak, Chief Macro and Global Strategist at Angel One Wealth

US Fed is expected to deliver a 25bps of rate cut in the policy next week. Clearly, the US has done better than was previously expected, putting the hard landers behind. The week ahead has crucial macroeconomic data releases lined up which will potentially shape up its decision making.

October's employment report will reflect the 33,000 Boeing workers who went on strike on September 13 and an additional 22,000 layoffs at Boeing's suppliers, as well as the impact of Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on October 9. These factors can make the macroeconomic numbers appear worse than the previous readings. However, combining the adjusted macro data releases and corporate earnings, we believe the US is on to a soft landing.

Front-loading the rate cuts will be incrementally helpful, as the inflation abates. Leading indicators of US inflation such as shelter and rent indices are contracting fast. In light of all these factors, Fed is likely to deliver another 25bps cut. Domestically, RBI is likely to cut rates in December but a lot will depend on the inflation data of November.

Praveen Singh – Associate VP, Fundamental Currencies and Commodities, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Spot gold was highly volatile and choppy on Monday as it surged on disappointing US nonfarm payroll report, but it fell as yields surged with focus on the US presidential election outcome and possible increase in fiscal deficit. Spot gold closed with a loss of around 0.28% at $2,736 on Friday and was down around 0.50% on the week.

The US employers added only 12K jobs (forecast 100K) and two-month net payroll was revised lower by 112K jobs. Manufacturing payroll declined by 46K jobs (forecast -30K). The unemployment rate was steady at 4.10%. ISM manufacturing at 46.50 fell short of the forecast of 47.60.

The ten-year US yields were 2.37% higher on Friday to settle at 4.387% as both two-year and ten-year yields were up around 3% on the week.

The metal is unable to gain upward traction despite the US yields sharply lower today; the ten-year yields are at 4.31%. Gold may consolidate its gains and is expected to trade between $2,700 and $2,760.

The sell-off was driven by several factors, including the U.S. presidential election on November 5, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy announcement on November 7....Read More

Rupee close

Rupee ends at a record low of 84.12/$

Mohammed Imran – Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Crude oil prices rallied more than two percent with WTI trading above $71.45, following up with Friday rally on back of OPEC’s decision that it will extend its output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month in December, with an increase already delayed from October because of falling prices and weak demand. While both the benchmark WTI and Brent posted weekly declines last week of about 4% and 3%, respectively. The macro picture from China is looking promising after the infusion of stimulus the October month factory activities showed expansion, while US economy has struggled with recent series of hurricanes affecting the labour market. The ongoing week will provide investors with global monetary policy catalysts with rate decisions from the Federal Reserve (US), the Bank of England (BoE), China's National People's Congress (NPC) standing committee meets from Nov. 4 to Nov. 8, which will be closely watched for further details of a raft of stimulus measures that were announced recently.

Overall data crude oil balance is in surplus and the recent rally is mostly on optimism surrounding expectations of more stimulus from China, which we think could make crude rally towards $75 while support sticks around $69-$67. We advise selling into rallies for the day.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Reliance Jio IPO set for 2025, retail debut much later: Report

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani targets a 2025 Mumbai listing for his telecom business Jio, valued by analysts at over $100 billion, and plans to launch his retail unit's IPO much later, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Reliance Industries' boss Ambani hasn't updated his IPO timelines after saying in 2019 that Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail would "move towards" a listing within five years.

In recent years, Ambani, Asia's richest man, raised $25 billion collectively for digital, telecom and retail businesses from the likes of KKR, General Atlantic and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, valuing both ventures at above $100 billion. The two sources said Reliance has now firmed up plans to launch the Reliance Jio IPO in 2025 as it internally believes it has achieved a stable business and revenue stream in becoming India's No. 1 telecom player with 479 million subscribers.

But the retail business IPO is not expected until after 2025 as the company first needs to address some internal business and operational challenges, said the first source. Read More

Earnings Alert | IRFC Q2 net profit rises 4.4% to Rs 1,612.6 crore

#1 Net Profit up 4.4% at Rs 1,612.6 Cr vs Rs 1,544.6 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue up 2% At Rs 6,899.3 Cr vs Rs 6,761 Cr (YoY)

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Reliance Jio IPO likely in 2025, retail unit debut much later, Reuters reports citing sources

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Sensex Today | Kothari Petrochem to buy land worth Rs 74 crore for expansion

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Sensex Today | Solar Industries India gets Rs 399 crore order

Sensex Today | Trent has 1.2 mln shares traded in a block : Bloomberg

'Corporate earnings growth is primarily sustained by margin expansions rather than revenue growth,' stated the report, adding that valuations have remained elevated for the market as a whole and permeates across market cap. ...Read More

Earnings Watch | VST Tillers Q2: Profit rises, margins tighten

#1 Net Profit: Increased by 23.6% to Rs 45 crore compared to Rs 36 crore year-on-year (YoY).

#2 Revenue: Grew by 1.8% to Rs 283.4 crore compared to Rs 278.5 crore YoY.

#3 EBITDA: Declined by 12.3% to Rs 38 crore compared to Rs 43 crore YoY.

#4 EBITDA Margin: Reduced to 13.4% from 15.5% YoY.

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NHC Foods Limited (NHC) has received in-principle approval from the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for proposed right issue upto Rs. 49 crores. For the quarter ended June 30, 2024, the company’s Net Profit has increased by 391% to Rs. 200.88 lakhs. This has been a commendable performance from the company, considering its Net profit for the year ended 31st March FY2024 was Rs. 234.74 lakhs.

The founder of the portfolio management service weighs in on the good and the ugly that the Indian market has seen and has emerged stronger from. He also has a word of caution about the bad that could be around the corner later this year. ...Read More

Afcons Infra stock made its debut at Rs 430.05, a discount of 7.11 percent from the issue price on the BSE. It further declined 9.31 per cent to Rs 419.85....Read More

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Sharda Cropchem in Q2 saw 20% volume growth with a 10% increase in prices. Looking ahead, Bubna expects at least a 10-15% price increase, alongside continued improvements in working capital days. For the second half of the year, Sharda Cropchem is targeting gross margins of 30-32% and anticipates surpassing its earlier EBITDA margin guidance of 15-18%.

Oil marketing stocks IOC, BPCL, and HPCL fell up to 5% as Goldman Sachs issued a bearish outlook following weak Q2 results, driven by underwhelming refining and marketing performance....Read More

Earnings Watch | Tube Investments Q2 net profit down 22.2% at Rs 207 crore Vs Rs 266 crore, YoY

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Earnings Watch | Exide Industries Q2 net profit at Rs 297.8 crore Vs Rs 287 crore, YoY

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Stock Market LIVE Updates | Transport Corporation of India shares extend gain on 4th day

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Results Today | ABB India, Amara Raja Energy, Bata, Exide Industries, among others to announce earnings today

ABB India, Amara Raja Energy & Mobility, Bata India, Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company, Exide Industries, KEC International, Gland Pharma, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation, Indian Railway Finance Corporation, JK Paper, Sai Silks (Kalamandir), Procter & Gamble Health, Raymond, Shankara Building Products, Tilaknagar Industries, Tube Investments of India, and VST Tillers Tractors will announce their September quarter earnings on November 4.

Earnings Watch | Hatsun Agro Q2 net profit down 17.1% at Rs 64.3 crore Vs Rs 77.6 crore, YoY

Brokerage Call | Kotak Institutional Equities upgrades M&M to 'buy', target Rs 3,150

#1 Expect M&M to continue to outperform industry growth across automotive & tractor segments

#2 Tractor segment expected to witness uptick during 2HFY25; to be driven by a favorable monsoon & higher reservoir levels

#3 Cut FY25-26 EPS estimate by 1-4 percent on account of lower LCV volume assumptions

#4 Cut FY25-26 EPS estimate by 1-4 percent on lower EBITDA margin assumptions due to higher discounts

#5 Stock trading at attractive valuation of 20X FY26E core EPS

Markets@1 | Sensex down 1270 pts, Nifty below 23900

The Sensex was down 1,274.02 points or 1.60 percent at 78,450.10, and the Nifty was down 425.60 points or 1.75 percent at 23,878.70.

Sensex Today | Maruti Suzuki's total production in October 2024 at 177,312 units Vs 176,437 units in October 2023

Stock Market LIVE Updates | 1.32 million shares of Union Bank of India traded in a block: Bloomberg

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Afcons Infrastructure declares lowest bidder for metro project

Afcons Infrastructure announced that it was declared as the lowest bidder for construction Package BH-05 of Bhopal Metro Phase 1 project’s 12.915 km Blue Line (Line-2) which will connect Bhadbhada Chauraha – Ratnagiri Tiraha via 13 elevated stations. Afcons’

bid of Rs 1006.74 crore was declared the lowest - L1.

Sensex Today | 1.7 million shares of L&T Finance traded in a block: Bloomberg

Brokerage Call | Morgan Stanley keeps 'equal-weight' call on Tata Motors, target at Rs 1,178

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#2 Jaguar US retail sales increased 4 percent YoY to 715 units

#3 LR incentives per unit increased 116 percent YoY