Nifty may see another 10% downside over next 3-6 months, fears Macquarie's Sandeep Bhatia

"In 2025, the big gorilla is the US market," Bhatia said. Wall Street's gyrations to policy moves by President-elect Trump will be a major trigger for emerging markets as well, he said.

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Macquarie's Sandeep Bhatia fears the benchmark Nifty 50 index is in for a sharp, 10 percent downside from present levels, over the next 3-6 months.

In conversation with CNBC-TV18, Bhatia raised concerns over valuations of companies, and said he is cautious in his outlook towards Indian equities. Bhatia cited recent earnings downgrades after September quarter results in the past few weeks as a key reason for caution, adding that he will maintain his cautious stance for some more time.

The benchmark indices have fallen to their lowest level in over five months, with Nifty 50 slipping into the correction zone on November 13, with a 10% cut from recent high seen in September.  Track the key factors behind the selloff here.

Going forward, Macquarie sees Donald Trump's presidency as a major influence for the world markets. "In 2025, the big gorilla is the US market," Bhatia said. Wall Street's gyrations to policy moves by President-elect Trump will be a major trigger for emerging markets as well, he said, adding that "all EMs including India will be hit."

Macquarie expects the US Dollar to continue to strengthen, possibly stoked by concerns arising out of Trump's 'America First' policies. If US steps up on tariff restrictions on global trade, specifically in relation with China, it may lead to inflation, thus limiting global central banks’ ability to cut rates.

According to LSEG, US dollar's strength may trigger a shift in market expectations of higher US rates for longer. For EMs, this could mean pass-through inflation due to costlier imports, and greater vulnerability in external debt servicing. Among the FTSE Emerging Index top constituents, India is a major economy that is import-dependent.

Read More: Indian rupee to depreciate further after Trump's win, say experts

Sandeep Bhatia added that the extent of India's fall is contingent to strength of US Dollar and President-elect Trump's policies.

Read More: Markets may have made the year's high, says Ramesh Damani, expect consolidation

Macquarie's Sandeep Bhatia also added that some disruptions to global growth assumptions are possible, going forward, which may impact stock market valuations already at stretched levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.​​​