Brokerage Radar: Analysts bullish on Hindalco; Samvardhana Motherson sees target upgrades

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Check out the latest brokerage calls and analyst comments on the stocks in action today. Our coverage includes Manappuram Finance, Hindalco Industries, Hero MotoCorp, Samvardhana Motherson International, and more.

Manappuram Finance

Morgan Stanley On Manappuram Finance
Overweight Call, Target `245/Sh
Q1 Was A Muted Quarter
1% PAT Miss Due To Higher Credit Costs In Standalone & MFI Subsidiary
Standalone NIM Missed Estimates Owing To Higher Borrowings During Quarter
Yields Were In-line With Estimates Even As Gold Loan Yields Fell 30 bps QoQ To 22.2%
Management Raised Its Guidance For Gold Loan Growth From 12-13% To 15% For FY25
Mgmt Also Guided That Credit Costs At Asirvad Microfinance Likely To Remain Elevated

Jefferies On Manappuram Finance
Buy Call, Target `270/Sh
Q1 PAT Grew 12% YoY 3% Below Estimates Despite Slight Beat In PpOP Due To Higher Provisions
Gold AUM Grew 10% QoQ Due To Higher Gold Prices & Slight Uptick In Customer Growth
Margins Dipped QoQ
Gross NPA In MFI Segment Fell QoQ
Gross NPA In Other Non-Gold Segments Rose QoQ, But These Form 22% Of Loans
Co Should Gain From Gold Price Tailwind, Growth In Non-Gold Portfolio
Concerns Around Stress In MFI/Non-Gold Book Seem Largely Priced In

Hindalco Industries

CLSA On Hindalco
Outperform Call, Target `760/Sh
Q1 India EBITDA Was Ahead Of Est On Lower Aluminium COP & Better Copper Profitability
Spot LME Was $210/t Lower Than Q1
Profitability Impact Is Likely To Be Cushioned By A Better Mix And Hedging
With Downstream Expansion Near Complete, Focus Now Shifts To Upstream Projects
Upstream Projects Paves Way For Volume Growth & Margin Expansion

Jefferies On Hindalco
Buy Call, Target `800/Sh
Q1 EBITDA Rose 32% YoY & In-line With Estimates
India Business Is Delivering Well With Good Cost Control In Aluminum
India Business Is Delivering Better Margins In Copper
The Recent Slide In Aluminium Price Poses Some Headwind
Novelis Is Benefiting From Improved Beverage Can Demand
The Flooding Issue At Swiss Plant Should Normalise In H2
Co’s 1.2x FY25 PB Is Reasonable

Samvardhana Motherson International

Morgan Stanley On Samvardhana
Overweight Call, Target Raised To `198/Sh
Q1 EBITDA Was Largely In-line
With All Acquisitions Closed, Expect Balancesheet To Start Improving
Ramp-up Of Non-auto Biz & Addl Details On Consumer Electronics Business Is Key To Watch

JPMorgan On Samvardhana
Overweight Call, Target Raised To `195/Sh
Strong Momentum Across Businesses; Investment In Growth Continues
Q1 Broadly In-line
Maintaining A Healthy Balance Between Leverage, RoCE And Growth Capex
Management Reiterated Their Commitment To Remain <2.5x Net Debt/EBITDA
Raise FY25-27 EPS By 9-19%

Macquarie On Apollo Hospitals
Underperform Call, Target `5,040/Sh
Q1 Revenue & PAT Largely In-line
Q1 EBITDA Missed Estimate By 6%
Overall, EBITDA Margin Of 13.3% Came Below Estimate Of 14%

Jefferies On Hero MotoCorp
Buy Call, Target `5,650/Sh
Q1 EBITDA & Recurring PAT Grew 19-21% YoY But Were 6% Below Estimates
Q1 EBITDA & Recurring PAT Below Est Due To Lower-than-expected ASP & Margin
Volumes Grew 13% YoY (+10% QoQ) But ASP Declined 3% QoQ
Gross Margin Contracted 130 bps QoQ
EBITDA Margin Rose 10 bps QoQ To 14.4% On Operating Leverage Benefit
EBITDA/Vehicle Fell 3% QoQ
Press Release Mentions That Co Has Slew Of Launches In Pipeline In Both EV & ICE Categories

CLSA On Piramal Enterprises
Downgrade To Underperform, Target Cut To `860/Sh
Co Saw Negative Credit Costs Due To Lower Provisions On Stage 1/3 Assets
Negative Credit Costs Due To One-off Gains Supported Otherwise Weak Operating Profit
AUM Growth Of 10% YoY Was Primarily Driven By 43% YoY Growth In Retail Book
Some Segments Of Its Retail Book Are Continuing To See A Deteriorating 90+ DPD Trend
Believe This Could Put Pressure On Both Growth And Credit Costs
Management Indicated Near-term Pressure On Its Cost Of Funds

Jefferies On Muthoot Finance
Buy Call, Target `2,220/Sh
Q1 Profit Grew 11% YoY To `1,080 Cr (7% Miss) As Beat In PpOP Was Offset By Higher Provisions
Loan Growth Surprised Positively, Aided By Higher Gold Prices
Customer & Tonnage Growth Improved QoQ
NIMs Fell QoQ, But Held Up Better Than Est
Gold Gross NPA Rose 70 bps QoQ
Provision Surprised Negatively, But With LTV On Gross NPA At 54%, Loan Losses Should Be Limited

Jefferies On Max Financial Services
Buy Call, Target `1,220/Sh
Q1 VNB Of Was Up Just 3% YoY, Missing Est Despite 31% YoY Growth In Premium
Miss In Q1 Was Due To Weaker Mix Of Premiums, Led By Doubling Of Ulips, & Share Rose To 39%
Expect Mix Of Premium To Normalise As Sales Through Banca And ecom Are Managed Better
Persistency Rose By 3 ppt YoY To 87%; ROEV Was 14%; EV Growth Of 30% Including Capital Infusion
Valuations At 1.5x FY26 P/EV Is Attractive

Nomura On HDFC Bank
Neutral Call, Target `1,720/Sh
Increased Priority Sector Lending (PSL) Requirements To Have Marginal NIM Impact
NIM Improvement Led By Better Funding Mix Remains Key RoA Driver
NIM Improvement Will Come At Cost Of Loan Growth
Balancesheet Course Correction Will Be Gradual:

Citi On Vodafone Idea
Buy Call, Target `22/Sh
Q1 Revenues Came In Below Estimates
Subscriber Losses Were Stable
Miss On Subscriber Numbers Was Due To Flat ARPU Vs Expectation Of Slight Improvement
Net Loss Narrowed QoQ, Better Than Our Estimate
Narrow Net Loss Led By Higher Other Income (Following The Equity Raise)
Narrow Net Loss Led By Lower Int Expenses (Reversal & Writeback Of Some Prior Charges)

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