Key events next week: India, US, UK, China & Eurozone December PMIs; Euro Inflation rate, Fed minutes and more

Economic events next week in India and from around the world. (Representative Image)

The economic releases scheduled next week are the final monthly purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings for manufacturing and services from major economies like India, the US, the UK, China, and the Eurozone for the month of December, the inflation rate for the Eurozone, the weekly jobless claims by the US, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting, and others.

Let's take a look at the key economic data releases for the week beginning January 2, 2023.

Here's a schedule of the events:

January 2 & 4 - India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI December

In India, market participants will pay close attention to these two macroeconomic data announcements. The manufacturing sector's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released on January 2 (Monday), while the services PMI data will be released on January 4. (Wednesday).

January 2 & 6 - Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone Inflation rate flash estimate YoY

The Eurozone S&P Global manufacturing PMI will be released on January 2 (Wednesday). And, preliminary inflation figures - CPI flash and core CPI flash - for Eurozone are due on January 6 (Friday).

January 3 & 6 - US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI December

In the United States, the manufacturing PMI for December will be released on January 3 (Tuesday), and the services PMI on January 6 (Friday).

January 3 & 5 - UK Manufacturing and Services PMI (final) December

In the UK economic calendar, S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs will be released on January 3 and January 5, respectively.

January 5 - US weekly initial jobless claims (Up to Dec 31)

The US Labor Department will release on January 5 (Thursday) the initial jobless claims report for the week ending December 31 on the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance.

January 4 - FOMC rate meeting minutes

The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's December rate-setting meeting will be released on January 4th (Wednesday). The Fed usually publishes the minutes of its meetings three weeks after each policy meeting. The minutes reveal what the FOMC members discussed at the most recent monetary policy meeting, as well as details about the Fed's last rate hike in December.

In December, the US Federal Reserve's federal open market committee raised rates by 50 basis points to 4.5%.

Market investors have been waiting for meeting minutes for clues on the economy's health, the Fed's thinking on measures to combat high inflation, and the extent of future interest hikes.

January 6 - US Non-Farm Payrolls December

The crucial US jobs report will be released on January 6 (Friday). The non-farm payrolls report is one of the most eagerly anticipated economic events in the world. In November, the US economy added 263,000 jobs vs 284,000 in October. The employment rate is one of the most critical pieces of economic data.

The US nonfarm payrolls is a monthly employment report that is usually released on the first Friday of each month.

Ahead of the December data releases, here is how the previous month's data (November) for major economies such as India, the United States, the United Kingdom, China, and the Eurozone looked:

India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November

In November, India's manufacturing sector activity increased. According to S&P Global, India's manufacturing PMI increased from 55.3 in October to 55.7 in November. Manufacturing production in India increased for the seventeenth time in a row in November, according to data.

According to S&P Global, demand resilience boosted manufacturing growth in India, and faster production expansion coincided with a slowdown in inflation.

India S&P Global Services PMI November

In November, India services continued to benefit from accommodative demand conditions. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index increased from 55.1 in October to 56.4 in November, indicating the fastest increase in output in three months. In November, new orders placed with service providers in India increased for the sixteenth consecutive month.

India's private sector activity also increased in November. The S&P Global India Composite PMI Output Index increased from 55.5 in October to 56.7 in November.

The S&P Global India Services PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 service sector companies. The sectors covered include consumer (excluding retail), transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI November

The manufacturing sector in the United States contracted in November, with the Manufacturing PMI reading 49 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the October reading of 50.2 percent. The Prices Index fell to 43 from 46.6, the Employment Index fell to 48.4 from 50, and the New Orders Index fell to 47.2 from 49.2.

(A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.)

(The Institute for Supply Management is a not-for-profit organization serving purchasing and supply managers around the world. It publishes a monthly Report on Business and a monthly non-Manufacturing Report on Business which contain widely followed industry indicators)

US Global Services PMI & Composite PMI (final) November

According to the most recent PMI data, November data indicated a faster contraction in business activity across the US service sector.

In November, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Services PMI final Business Activity Index was 46.2, down from 47.8 in October. The November S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index was 46.4, down from 48.2 in October.

(The Composite Output Index is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index.)

The S&P Global US Services PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 service sector companies. The sectors covered include consumer (excluding retail), transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate, and business services.

UK Manufacturing PMI (final) November

The UK S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing PMI increased to 46.5 in November from 46.2 in October. For the fourth month in a row, the PMI remained below the neutral 50.0 level. According to S&P Global's findings, intermediate goods remain the weakest-performing sector, and business sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since April 2020.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI November

The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is closely followed by investors because it is one of the first available indicators of the strength of the Chinese economy each month.

Factory activity in China rose marginally in November as COVID-19 restrictions disrupted manufacturers' output. The Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased from 49.2 in October to 49.4 in November. According to the private Caixin survey, sub-indices of factory output, employment, and new export orders all fell at a faster rate in November than in October.

An index reading below the 50-mark indicates a contraction in activity on a monthly basis and a reading above indicates an expansion.

China Caixin services PMI November

The Caixin PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questions sent to purchasing managers in China.

According to a private-sector business survey, China's services activity fell to six-month lows in November as expanding COVID containment measures weighed on demand and operations. The Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI dropped from 48.4 to 46.7. Caixin/composite S&P's PMI, which includes both manufacturing and service sector activity, fell to 47.0 in November from 48.3 in October, owing to a drop in both manufacturing and service sector output.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final) November

The final Eurozone Manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is released a week after the flash estimate. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final) increased to 47.1 in November, up from 46.4 in October, according to a business survey published by S&P Global. The manufacturing output PMI (final) increased to 46.0 in November, up from 43.8 in October.

(PMI is the monthly indicator of economic trends, the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets, and business decision makers.)

Eurozone global services PMI (final) & Eurozone global composite PMI (final) November

The final Eurozone Services PMI and Composite PMI follow on from the flash estimate which is released a week earlier.

The S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI was 48.5 in November 2022, a little-changed from the previous month's reading of 48.6. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index fell below 50.0 for the fifth month in a row during the most recent survey period. The November reading of 47.8 was higher than the October reading of 47.3.

US initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec 24

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States rose in the week ending December 24. According to the most recent US Labor Department data, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased by 9000 to 225000.

(An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claimant requests a determination of basic eligibility for the UI program. The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country.)

US Employment rate (non-farm payrolls) and Unemployment rate November

The Employment Situation for December is scheduled to be released on January 6 (Friday).

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent. In November, the number of unemployed people remained essentially unchanged at 6.0 million. Significant job growth was seen in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment in retail trade, transportation, and warehousing decreased.

(Nonfarm Payrolls measure the change in the number of people employed during the prior month, excluding workers in the farming industry. Given that full employment is one of the Federal Reserves mandates, it is very closely watched. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the dollar, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the dollar.)

Eurozone CPI flash November YoY/Euro area Inflation

According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, Euro area annual inflation was 10.1 % in November 2022, down from 10.6 % in October 2022. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy had the highest annual rate in November (34.9 %, compared with 41.5 % in October), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (13.6 %, compared with 13.1 % in October), non-energy industrial goods (6.1 %, stable compared with October), and services (4.2 %, compared with 4.3 % in October).

Eurozone Core CPI flash (YoY)/Core Inflation Rate November

The Core Consumer Price Index (core inflation rate) (which excludes price changes in food and energy) for the European Union and Eurozone (Eurozone) in November 2022 was 6%, compared to 6.42% in October.

(With inputs from Agencies)