Indian airlines may ground 200 aircraft by year-end, supply chain risks loom: Capa India

Presently, more than 160 aircraft across Indian airlines are grounded, and this number is anticipated to rise due to IndiGo's current 55 grounded aircraft, according to CAPA.

In its mid-year outlook, aviation consultancy firm Capa India predicts that the Indian aviation industry may face the grounding of approximately 200 aircraft by the end of the current financial year. IndiGo, the largest airline in India, is expected to contribute over 90 grounded aircraft, followed by Air India and SpiceJet with 25-30 each. Go First has already grounded 54 aircraft since suspending flights in May.

Presently, more than 160 aircraft across Indian airlines are grounded, and this number is anticipated to rise due to IndiGo's current 55 grounded aircraft, according to CAPA. Capa India projects that the sector's overall fleet size will approach 790 aircraft by March 2024, with 588 likely to be operational. Additionally, delays in aircraft deliveries are anticipated for Akasa Air, India's newest airline.

In terms of passenger numbers, Capa India forecasts domestic and international passenger traffic to reach around 155 million and 70 million, respectively, for the current financial year. The firm highlights supply chain issues as a critical risk, potentially impacting scheduled airline operations and the UDAN flight program.

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Capa India also expects the wet lease aircraft fleet in India to reach around 30 by March, as IndiGo and SpiceJet adopt this model, leasing aircraft along with crew.

Despite capacity shortages, the research firm notes a return to normalcy in airfares, with average fares declining by 12.7 percent year-on-year in the September quarter of 2024. While some weakness is expected in the March quarter, full-year yields are projected to be approximately 3 percent lower year-on-year, potentially leading to higher losses for full-service carriers like Air India and Vistara.

Capa India emphasises the continuing growth momentum in the market, with a greater focus on international operations receiving an increasing share of planned capacity.

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