S&P Global's Paul Gruenwald sees only modest headwinds for Indian economy in FY25

S&P

Paul Gruenwald, Global Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings, said
global economic growth is likely to surprise on the upside and hence he sees only modest headwinds for India next fiscal

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Gruenwald spoke about global economies like China, US and also spoke about India's economic outlook.

"India is largely a domestic lead economy. Investments are going well so growth for  next couple of years will be robust," he said.

He further said that global environment facing India is not bad. "Our estimate is 6.5-7 percent trend growth throughout the next decade," he added.

S&P Global Ratings on November 27 increased its growth forecast for India in the current financial year (2023-24) to 6.4 percent, up from 6 percent, citing strong domestic momentum that has counteracted challenges from elevated food inflation and sluggish exports.

China's Economy

On the Chinese economy,  Gruenwald said that the country will be balancing between trying to fix the property sector and making sure there is sufficient financial discipline.

On China manufacturing outlook, he said,  "They clearly have a demand and confidence problem . We still think they can pull 5 percent growth this year but we're watching to see if we're going to get more stimulus.

US Economy

On another major global economy - the US - he said there was a huge surprise. "All major central banks raised policy rates by 400-500 basis points except the US," he added.

On US's growth forecast, he said that they raised the forecast to 2.4 percent this year. Gruenwald said: "Investments are quite robust in US and many robust small business formation is happening. Hence its outperforming major economies by a higher margin."

Also Read | India set to become 3rd large economy by 2030: S&P