Dear Reader,
The Panorama newsletter is sent to Moneycontrol Pro subscribers on market days. It offers easy access to stories published on Moneycontrol Pro and gives a little extra by setting out a context or an event or trend that investors should keep track of.Sometimes, the arrival of a new technology, product or a service undermines an existing business or industry. Smartphones replaced landlines and triggered a decline in sales of standalone cameras. Online videos and OTT platforms are reducing the relevance of cable TVs. Quick commerce is eating into sales of local retailers.
And as it looks like, the Rs 20,000 crore anti-diabetes market is set for an overhaul as well. Last week, Eli Lilly launched its popular weight loss drug Mounjaro injection in India. In addition to obesity, Mounjaro is used in treatment of type 2 diabetes as well.
Apart from Eli Lilly and other MNCs, a slew of Indian generic drug companies are preparing to launch the so called wonder drugs that controls both obesity and diabetes.
Given the proven results in overseas markets, this category of drugs has the potential to reshape India’s diabetes and wellness market. One, the entrance of generic companies and competitive prices can lure more people into obesity treatment and expand the overall market.
Second is the cannibalisation of the existing insulin market. With annual sales of Rs 4,000-5,000 crore, the insulin market currently constitutes about a fifth of the anti-diabetes drug market in India. Given that insulin users are already used to the needle (injection), they can easily switch to new drugs upon availability at reasonable prices.
“We believe the introduction of GLP-1 drugs in India could have an immediate negative impact on the growth of insulin sales. GLP-1 usage could delay the need for insulin in advanced type 2 diabetes patients,” warn analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities.
The oral solid diabetic drugs may also feel the heat. Companies such as Dr Reddy’s Laboratories are working on an oral solid version of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) category drugs. The price gap between current diabetes drugs and new medicines can shield the existing business for now. However, the price differential narrows over a period of time.
Tracking market changes, incumbents in diabetes drug business are also preparing to launch a new category of drugs. While the success of these new products in India will be known in coming days, the diabetes and wellness markets in India are set for interesting times.
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