China and Russia can absorb $20-billion Indian exports at risk from US tariffs, but gaps remain

China can absorb $13 billion of exports of India which were headed to the US

China and Russia together have the potential to absorb nearly $20 billion of Indian exports currently bound for the US, a Moneycontrol analysis shows.

While Moscow has pledged to take on all shipments at risk from the new US tariffs, the data suggests its market can realistically accommodate no more than $5 billion worth, leaving the bulk of the rebalancing dependent on Beijing. China is the only market large enough to absorb India’s mass-consumption and consumer-facing products, while Russia provides selective relief in niches such as ceramics, coffee and specialised tools.

Seafood stands out as the single biggest swing category. Frozen shrimp and prawns worth nearly $1.85 billion could be redirected to China, where imports in this category totalled $3.5 billion in 2024. Beijing already absorbed $740 million worth of India’s shipments last year. Packaged foods such as concentrates, syrups, protein powders, jams and biscuits also have headroom. China can import $196 million worth of packaged foods headed to the US and could accommodate nearly $77 million worth of jams and marmalades and sweet biscuits exports.

Spices—particularly cumin ($45 million) and capsicum ($33 million)—could be diverted, along with black tea worth $38 million. Coffee beans, however, find a Russia-only opening, with room for about $13 million.

In personal care and household goods, China dominates. Cosmetic preparations ($32 million), plastics and toys are all categories where Beijing could substitute for the US. Russia’s heft is evident in ceramics, with room for around $141 million in floor and wall tiles, ballpoint pens worth $13 million and pet food exports, where it could absorb $13 million of India's exports which were headed to the US in 2024.

In the case of T-shirts, China imported $509 million worth of goods in 2024 of which just $9 million came from India. US' total imports from India in the category were $495 million.

Russia’s import basket skews heavily toward industrial and machinery tools, leaving China as the more realistic counterweight for consumer-facing exports.