IOC Q1 profit seen down 19% at Rs 3,013 cr; GRM may be at $4.6/barrel

Oil retailer Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is expected to report standalone profit at Rs 3,013 crore for April-June quarter, down 19 percent compared with Rs 3,720 crore in previous quarter.

The fourth quarter FY17 was hit by lot of one-offs as there was Rs 2,100 crore worth employee cost revision, Rs 5,700 crore for entry tax provisions, Rs 2,600 crore for refining+ marketing inventory gains and Rs 1,500 crore in forex gains. IOC also booked a large deferred tax reversal in Q4.

Revenue during the quarter is seen falling at Rs 94,563 crore from Rs 1.22 lakh crore in previous quarter, according to average of estimates of analysts polled by CNBC-TV18.

Operating profit is seen rising sharply to Rs 6,213 crore from Rs 4,408 crore and margin may expand to 6.5 percent from 4.4 percent on sequential basis.

Analysts expect gross refining margin of USD 4.6 a barrel (including inventory loss) for IOC in Q1FY18 against USD 8.9 a barrel in Q4FY17 (included inventory gain of USD 2/bbl)/

They expect refinery throughput at 17.9mmt for Q1FY18 against 16.1mmt in Q1FY17 and 17.1mmt in Q4FY17, higher due to contribution from the Paradip refinery.

Key issues to watch for would be utilisation of Paradip refinery, gross refining margin, capex plans and forex/inventory changes.