Bajaj Finance Q1 Preview: Double-digit NII, profit growth likely on healthy loan growth

Solid loan growth and lower credit costs expected to drive strong Q1

India’s largest non-bank lender, Bajaj Finance, is poised to deliver double-digit growth in both net interest income (NII) and net profit for the April–June quarter (Q1FY26), buoyed by robust loan growth and declining credit costs. The NBFC heavyweight is slated to announce its first-quarter results on July 24, 2025.

According to Moneycontrol's poll, Bajaj Finance’s NII is expected to jump 27 percent year-on-year (YoY) to about Rs 10,628 crore in Q1FY26, compared with Rs 8,365 crore in the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, net profit is estimated to grow 19 percent YoY to nearly Rs 4,646 crore, up from Rs 3,912 crore in Q1FY25.

Estimates of analysts polled by Moneycontrol are shown to be in a narrow range, meaning any positive or negative surprises may elicit a sharp reaction in the stock price. Among the brokerages polled, Kotak Institutional Equities rolled out the most bullish projections while Motilal Oswal forecasted the slowest growth for Bajaj Finance.

What factors are driving the earnings?

Strong loan growth: Analysts at Axis Securities expect the company’s loan book to maintain its momentum in Q1FY26, projecting an impressive 26 percent YoY growth and about 5 percent sequential growth compared with the March quarter.

Margin moderation: According to Kotak analysts, net interest margins (NIM) are expected to moderate slightly, contracting by approximately 22 basis points YoY to 9.5 percent, down from 9.7 percent in Q1FY25.

Easing credit costs: Motilal Oswal analysts have forecast a decline in credit costs, estimating a 20 basis points quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) reduction to around 2.1 percent in Q1FY26.

What to look out for in the quarterly show?

Investors and analysts will be closely tracking management’s commentary on asset quality trends and any signals about credit costs. Updates on the lender’s progress in its Loan Repayment System (LRS) initiatives and forward-looking growth guidance will also be in focus.

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