Gold at new lifetime high, silver futures rise up to 4% ahead of Dhanteras

Gold, silver prices

Gold futures hit fresh lifetime highs on October 13, resuming its record bull run after some sessions of profit booking. This comes as the yellow metal remains in focus ahead of Dhanteras.

Gold's future contracts with December expiry on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) jumped more than 2 percent to hit an all-time high of Rs 1,23,977 per 10 grams on Monday. The contracts with February and April expiries meanwhile jumped over 2 percent each to their respective highs.

The future contracts with June expiry also hit a fresh lifetime high, jumping around 3 percent to trade at Rs 1,28,741 per 10 grams. Silver futures meanwhile rose up to 4 percent. Notably, the sharp rise was also triggered by the rising US-China trade worries, after US President Donald Trump announced that he would impose an additional 100 percent tariff on imports from China, as well as export controls on critical US-made software.

Why are gold and silver prices rising ahead of Dhanteras?

The prices of the precious metals remain under active watch amid expectations of rising demand ahead of Dhanteras, which is set to be celebrated during the upcoming weekend. Several communities across India consider it auspicious to buy gold and silver on this occasion.

Morgan Stanley on Indian households' gold stock:

Morgan Stanley in its latest report said that India's households wealth held in gold is estimated at US$ 3.8 trillion, or 88.8 percent of GDP. "This is providing a positive wealth effect, even as benign macro stability ensures that flow of gold demand remains range bound," it said.

Speaking about gold's 55 percent jump globally, and 62 percent in domestic markets in 2025 so far, the international brokerage said, "A multitude of global and domestic factors have contributed to the rally in the prices of the metal, which include both cyclical and structural drivers."

Why are gold prices rising?

Globally, heightened geopolitical tensions as a result of US government shutdown and political crisis in France have contributed to volatility in global financial markets, and the ongoing rate easing by the US Fed along with a weakening dollar, have acted as another trigger for the sharp rise in gold prices, Morgan Stanley said. "On the domestic front, given that the majority of India's gold demand is met through imports, currency movements have implications for returns to domestic investors. On a YTD basis, the rupee has depreciated by 3.8%, further amplifying domestic prices (rupee- denominated returns). A key structural driver has been the increasing relevance of gold as a reserve asset, encouraging central bank buying, amid persisting global uncertainty. Central bank holdings of gold nearly doubled worldwide over the past decade. India, in particular, has steadily increased its holdings of gold reserves, to 14% in Sep-25, from 8.1% in Sep-23," it said.

Should you buy gold at these levels?

In the current market, where gold and silver prices are trending at record-high levels, Swapnil Aggarwal, Director of VSRK Capital, suggests that investors should hold onto what they already have. For those who haven't entered yet, a systematic investment approach is advisable.

"For example, if someone has Rs 100 to invest, they can divide it into 10 transactions of Rs 10 each. Suppose they invest Rs 10 when gold is at Rs 1,25,000 per 10 grams or silver at Rs 1,53,000 per kilogram. If silver experiences a 5%–10% decline, they can invest another ₹10–₹20. If prices rise, they can simply wait and watch. This strategy is based on the principle that when demand is strong and supply is limited, prices naturally rise—it's simple mathematics," he explained.

"In the case of individuals with high-risk bearing capacity, one can very well entertain a possibility of investing 50%–70% of the amount that one wishes to invest now. Silver, however, with higher potential returns, is riskier than gold since the market size is less and no support of the central banks is provided. So, a systematic, disciplined investment strategy will avoid risk accumulation as well as take advantage of potential profits in the precious metal market," he added.

Strong gold ETF inflows:

Sanjay Agarwal, Senior Director at CareEdge Ratings noted that the sharp rise in gold ETF inflows. "Amidst rising gold prices and market volatility, gold ETFs inflows quadrupled to over Rs 8,000 crore sequentially. During September 2025, 9 open-ended NFOs were floated which collectively mobilised Rs.0.02 lakh crore with sectoral/thematic funds accounting for 45% share. All categories witnessed inflows barring ELSS funds and dividend yield fund. Structurally, it is expected that Debt mutual funds would be positive once the tax payout of September stabilized," he said.

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