Will BJP-IPFT alliance retain Tripura? 

Tripura is witnessing a three-corner contest in its assembly elections. (Source: Twitter/@SpokespersonECI)

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its alliance partner Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) are expected to get a majority in Tripura, according to the prediction of various exit polls on February 27.

Of the 60 assembly seats in the state, the BJP-IPFT alliance won 44 seats in 2018 placing them in the driver’s seat comfortably. However, this time the alliance is expected to just sail through the majority mark of 31 seats according to some exit polls, raising possibilities of the coalition losing power in the event of defections.

As per India Today-Axis My India, the BJP-IPFT is likely to get 36-45 seats, while Jan Ki Baat gave the ruling coalition 29-40 seats, and Zee News-Matrize gave the alliance 29-36 seats. The alliance is expected to get a vote share of 45 percent mostly in the plains, according to the exit polls.

In 2018, BJP and IPFT alliance wrested control from CPI (M), which had been in power in the state for more than 30 years. In the run-up to the polls, BJP ran a high-decibel campaign, relying on centrally-sponsored schemes.

If projections are to be believed, the dent in the ruling alliance’s tally, if any, seem to have been made by the newbie Tipra Motha, which joined the fray with the demand of ‘Greater Tipraland’. The party led by royal scion Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarma is expected to open its account in the state winning around 9-16 seats. The party is predicted to beat the Congress-Left alliance for the second spot in the Tripura Assembly polls.

In 2021, the Tipra Motha, which highlights the welfare of tribals in the state, had thrown an unexpected twist in the Autonomous District Council (ADC) elections by winning 18 seats, discomfiting the ruling alliance that managed to win only nine seats.

Meanwhile, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which had been aggressively campaigning in the northeast as part of its plan to establish itself as a national party doesn’t seem to have made much of an impression.

In its manifesto for Tripura Assembly elections, TMC promised to implement ‘Bengal model’ in the state by creating two lakh jobs in five years and provide Rs 1,000 to one lakh unemployed youths every year, if it is elected to power.

Exit polls also show the Left-Congress combine would get a paltry 6-11 seats with just 32 per cent of the popular vote, a huge slide from its 43 per cent vote share in 2018.