Rajasthan Elections 2023: Why SC/ST reserved seats can be the key to winning power in the state

Congress won 19 SC-reserved seats and 12 ST-reserved seats in 2018, compared to the BJP’s 12 and 9 seats respectively.

Rajasthan is going to hit the polling booths on Saturday. In the past, the reins of the state have swung between Congress, the current ruling party, and the BJP—with no party winning consecutive elections since 1998. Another interesting fact about the state is that nearly 30 percent of its 200 assembly constituencies are reserved seats.

Out of the total 59 reserved constituencies, 34 are for scheduled castes (SC) and 25 for scheduled tribes (ST). For context, in two out of the last three assembly elections in Rajasthan, the margin of victory between the winning party and the biggest opposition party wasn’t even half of the total number of reserved seats.

Moreover, analysis of historical data shows that including Lok Sabha elections, in the six elections that the state has witnessed since the 2008 delimitation exercise — in which boundaries of constituencies were redrawn — the party that secured the most number of reserved seats has won the election.

These reserved seats are elected by all voters in a constituency. The number of reserved seats for each state is decided based on the proportion SC and ST population in the total population of the state. The seats to be reserved are chosen based on the proportion of SC and ST population within each constituency.

Although both the BJP and the Congress each have dominated in three of the six previous elections held in the state, the former’s victories were more dominant and are more recent, as can be seen from the interactive chart above.

BJP’s success in reserved seats

Since 2013, the BJP has won three elections, while the Congress has won just one—the 2018 Assembly election.

During the 2013 Assembly election and 2014 Lok Sabha election, the Congress failed to secure a single SC-reserved seat. Meanwhile, the BJP won as many as 32 and 33 seats out of the total 34 seats reserved for SC communities, respectively. The party has also dominated in most ST-reserved seats.

Assembly constituency segment-wise analysis shows that even in the most recent election held in the state, i.e. the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP secured the most number of votes from 32 out of the 34 SC-reserved seats and 19 out of the 25 ST-reserved seats. Meanwhile, Congress just came on top in one SC-reserved seat and five ST-reserved seats.

Congress win in 2018

The 2018 Assembly election is the only election among the last four held in Rajasthan in which the Congress managed to break into the BJP’s consolidation of votes in reserved constituencies in this decade. Although the party managed to win more reserved seats, its victory was not as dominant as that of the BJP during the other three elections during the period.

Congress won 19 SC-reserved seats and 12 ST-reserved seats in 2018, compared to the BJP’s 12 and 9 seats respectively. However, Congress couldn’t manage to build on this momentum during the 2019 Lok Sabha election, as shown above.

Vote share

The BJP’s success in consolidating votes in reserved seats of Rajasthan during the recent elections can also be reflected in its high vote share in such seats. Analysis on the basis of Assembly constituency segments shows that the party secured more than 57 percent of the votes in reserved constituencies during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

However, even in 2018, the vote share of Congress was only marginally higher than that of the BJP. While Congress got around 40 percent of the votes in reserved constituencies, the BJP got around 39 percent.

Current scenario

Considering that in nearly 60 more seats in addition to the reserved 59, dalit and adivasi votes can significantly influence the results, and both parties have made attempts to woo voters from these communities.

The Congress is hoping for a repeat of the 2018 Assembly election, in which the party won the largest number of seats among the reserved constituencies. The Rajasthan State Scheduled Castes And Scheduled Tribes Development Fund (Planning, Allocation And Utilization Of Financial Resources) Bill, 2022, passed by the Ashok Gehlot-led government last year is one such attempt by the incumbents to woo dalit and adivasi voters.

Meanwhile, the BJP has been raising the issue of the high number of atrocities against dalits recorded in Rajasthan to attack the ruling Congress. According to the NCRB, Rajasthan recorded the second-highest number of atrocities against dalits in the country in 2021.