Rajasthan Election Results 2023: Five key factors that powered the BJP comeback

Rajasthan Election Results 2023: The BJP with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading the charge staged an impressive comeback.

The resurgence of the BJP in Rajasthan is a critical victory as the poll battle in the desert state was seen as a PM-CM clash. While the Congress is fumbling for an explanation of its defeat, the BJP is celebrating its return to power in Rajasthan. Despite a seemingly endless rift between former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and her critics, especially from the RSS camp, the BJP closed ranks in election year and with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading the charge, the party has staged an impressive comeback.

Despite a massive welfare push by the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government, five crucial factors appear to have played a key role in ensuring a BJP win.

1] Modi Appeal Trumps Gehlot Welfarism

The Rajasthan election was a direct PM-CM showdown where the key question was whether Modi magic could counter ‘magician’ Gehlot’s welfare pitch. By making himself the central pole, PM Modi turned the election into a Presidential style battle between two biggies and it seems his popular appeal and relentless campaigning was critical in turning the tide in BJP’s favour.

Modi’s repeated trips through the election year, his countless rallies in every corner of Rajasthan and his huge road shows in the final phase of the campaign enabled BJP to combat Gehlot’s welfare schemes covering  all segments of society. Modi Mehnat (hard work) turned into Modi Magic to trump Jaadugar Gehlot in this high-stakes battle.

2] Deft Handling Of The Raje Dilemma, State BJP Frictions

Flexibility in handing out party tickets helped the BJP cause in a big way. After massive revolts over its first list of candidates where several pro-Raje leaders were ignored, the BJP recovered and Vasundhara loyalists were accommodated substantially in later lists.

Also, the collective leadership slogan helped stem the infighting that crippled the BJP in the past five years and saw the party lose a large majority of bypolls in the state. By fielding seven  sitting MPs, the BJP sent out a strong signal of how serious it was to win back Rajasthan.

While her exact role is still unclear, the deft handling of Raje dilemma ensured that BJP did not appear as divided as it’s been for years.

3] Encashing Youth Anger Over Paper Leaks

With an unprecedented 22 lakh first-time voters in the mix, the youth vote was critical in Rajasthan and the BJP exploited the paper leak saga effectively. Papers of several recruitment exams for government jobs got leaked in recent years impacting lakhs of unemployed youth.

State Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra, earlier the Education Minister, had presided over many of these leaks and this connection undermined Congress credibility on this issue. Though the Congress argued that paper leaks haunt almost all big states, the issue gained traction and the Gehlot dispensation could neither address nor shape the narrative on it.

The BJP also positioned itself as the party with a solution and promised to jail all paper leak culprits which the PM called a “Modi guarantee” to attract youth voters.

4] Hindutva Agenda And Polarisation Plank

While it was a regular state election where local issues dominated, the BJP leadership strongly signalled Hindutva issues. With PM Modi himself often raising the Kanhaiya Lal beheading in Udaipur in 2022 by two Muslim zealots, and all BJP leaders repeatedly attacked ‘appeasement politics’ and harped on the need to protect Sanatana Dharma from attacks by “the Congress and its friends”, polarisation was a key plank of the BJP.

By fielding Hindutva hardliners like Baba Balaknath as candidates and highlighting the construction of a grand Ram Temple in Ayodhya as a great feat, a potent mix of politics and religion seems to have bolstered the BJP’s appeal to voters in a big way.

5] Anti-Incumbency Against MLAs And Gehlot-Pilot Rift

CM Gehlot’s well-packaged welfare schemes had softened anti-incumbency against his government but not against sitting Congress MLAs, many of whom were seen as corrupt and arrogant. Despite their flaws and negative image, the Congress did not cut tickets of dubious MLAs and public anger against them seems to have ruined Congress prospects on many seats.

In the campaign, BJP stalwarts also targeted the Gehlot-Pilot feud which they claimed had stalled the progress of the state. In the final phase, PM Modi even dragged in the late Rajesh Pilot to allege that Sachin was being punished for his father’s defiance of the Gandhis several years ago.

Though the Congress dismissed it as a ploy to woo Gujjar votes, public perception of a Gehlot-Pilot rift remained strong and became a major hurdle for a Congress win.

With no state BJP leader being projected as a CM face, the decisive win in Rajasthan is bound to further bolster PM Modi’s reputation as India’s most popular politician. Despite the absence of a strong anti-incumbency wave against the Gehlot government, the prolonged power struggle between Gehlot and Pilot over the Chief Ministerial chair has clearly eroded public trust in the Congress.