MP Elections 2023: Exit polls add to the confusion in a closely fought contest

Madhya Pradesh elections 2023: The extreme divergence between two prominent polling agencies has made MP tough to call.

Far from dispelling confusion over the keenly- contested November 17 assembly election in Madhya Pradesh, exit polls have only added to it. Exit polls are split on the outcome with extremely divergent numbers for BJP and Congress to be able to rely on them.

BJP, Congress Cling To Victory Hopes

For BJP, the numbers range from the lowest 88 (ABP-CVoter) to the highest 162(India Today–Axis My India). For Congress, the lowest is 68 (India Today-Axis My India) and the highest 137 ( ABP-CVoter). All other exit polls hover in between these numbers for the two key contestants. Confusion is inevitable with such a huge divergence.

Amid anxieties and confusion, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan claimed that his flagship freebie scheme, the Ladli Behna Yojana ensured the BJP’s victory. “The exit poll reflects the feelings of the people and we will have a massive win”, a jubilant Chouhan told newsmen.

However, his rival Kamal Nath exuded confidence that the country is run by vision and not television. “When the counting of votes takes place on December 3, the people’s stamp of approval will be for a Congress government”, he claimed.

The claim and counterclaim have deepened the suspense ahead of December 3 when the counting will take place. Political observers are trying to wrap their heads around the split verdict of the exit polls. Speculations are rife on a number of questions that dominated the campaign ahead of the voting on November 17.

Is the BJP’s Ladli Bahna Yojana a game changer? To what extent the voters were swayed by the anti-incumbency sentiments against the 18 years long stints of the chief minister?  Did the Congress commit a strategic blunder by going it alone  and making itself  vulnerable in some constituencies  to split votes between its INDIA partners such as Samajwadi Party and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)?

BJP’s Chouhan Bet Worked?

Three months ago, victory in Madhya Pradesh looked like a low-hanging fruit for the Congress. Anti-incumbency sentiments were all too pervasive. It helped the Congress that the BJP high command took control of the campaign, denying Shivraj Singh Chouhan yet another shot at the Chief Minister’s post. But the BJP course–corrected its strategy soon enough and bounced back in the contest with Chouhan acting as the spearhead, though not as a chief ministerial candidate.

His bounce-back helped the BJP’s fight. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hectic campaign in the state during his 14 visits further added to the party’s zest.

However, the jury is still out as to what extent Modi's spirited campaign and the timely restoration of the Chief Minister’s authority might have helped the BJP. The rejuvenated Congress was no pushover this time, unlike in the past.  Rahul and Prianka Gandhi also campaigned as vigorously as did Modi, and the enthusiastic crowds in the Gandhi sibling’s rallies brightened the Congress prospects.

All said and done, if the BJP manages to retain power in this election against all the heavy odds stacked against it, it could be safely said that the party is invincible in Madhya Pradesh. Only the actual results will show if this is so.