MP Elections 2023: How Shivraj Singh Chouhan got lucky again and won BJP high command backing

Madhya Pradesh elections 2023: CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

“Hum Shivraj Se To Lad Sakte Hain Lekin Unke Bhagya Se Nahi” (We can fight Shivraj but can’t fight his fortune)

This is how a veteran Congress leader dejectedly remarked in Bhopal minutes after the BJP revealed on March 23, 2020, that Shivraj Singh Chouhan will be sworn in as chief minister for a record fourth time to replace Kamal Nath, who had lost majority owing to the revolt of 22 Congress MLAs led by Jyotiraditya Scindia.

Chouhan’s Luck

Chouhan, under whose leadership the BJP had lost assembly election only 15 months ago, was definitely not a favourite of the BJP high command for the post. But time was too short with the party to mull an alternative.  Next day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was to announce a nationwide lockdown as the most stringent precaution against the snowballing onslaught of the Covid-19.

A look at Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s political trajectory would corroborate that the Congress veteran’s remark couldn’t have been more right.

From 1990, when he entered the state assembly from Budni for the first time, to now, when he is contesting again from the same seat, Lady Luck hasn’t stopped smiling on the 64-year-old leader with an enviable record of being the longest serving chief minister of the BJP.

And, for all we know, he could be lucky for a fifth time as well, and stretch his innings, should the BJP retain power in Madhya Pradesh!

Rough Start To 2023 Campaign

Till a month ago, Chouhan’s fate as next CM looked as good as sealed. The BJP high command had taken charge of campaigning in MP in its hands; party leaders were evasive about the CM face; and Chouhan was kept in the dark in the first two lists of the candidates.

The party’s decision to field three union ministers and  national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya  made the race for the CM rather crowded, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn’t mention Chouhan’s name, much less his achievements, in election meetings in the state.

Through these developments, Chouhan did not lose his composure in public and remained focused on campaigning.

And Then A Sharp Recovery

In the last couple of weeks, the CM’s stars began to brighten again when the Prime Minister solicited “direct support” for his leadership in an open letter to the state voters. The letter lauded the “hard work” of the Chief Minister in “transforming” the state.

Then more good news came for Chouhan followed in the shape of the remaining three lists of party candidates. Unlike the first two, most of the Chouhan’s loyalists figured in the subsequent lists; the CM himself was given yet another opportunity to try his luck from his traditional seat.

More significantly, Chouhan got the green signal to campaign across the state while other CM-aspirants are stuck in their own constituencies. As far as Budni is concerned, the CM hardly needed to campaign beyond a day or two to clinch victory in successive elections with huge margins.

Taken together, the late developments have led political observers to conclude that the high command has finally recognised that it can ill-afford to count out Shivraj Singh Chouhan in the election. The CM, on his part, has been crisscrossing the state, canvassing votes for other candidates, with renewed vigour.

Chouhan’s Rise 

His belonging to an OBC has been a great political asset for Chouhan.  With the Congress having promised a caste census, the OBCs have become the most crucial factor in the election. Chouhan is indisputably the most prominent OBC face in the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. That partly explains his bounce-back in the CM reckoning.

Way back in the 1990s, the then BJP patriarch LK Advani had recognised the political potential of the young OBC MLA from Budni.  The MLA was fielded in the Vidisha Lok Sabha bypoll in 1991 following Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s decision to vacate the seat and retain Lucknow in 1991. Once in Parliament, Chouhan quickly learnt the ropes of party politics at the Centre.

With Advani’s blessings, there was no looking back for his ardent protégé. He scaled newer heights – becoming BJYM national  president, then BJP national general secretary, then MP unit state president and finally, in November 2005, the Chief Minister.

Surviving The Modi Era

The going was pretty smooth for Chouhan until his mentor LK Advani was at the helm of the BJP affairs. With the dawn of the Modi era in 2014, the Chief Minister foresaw troubles for his Gaddi. For, none other than Advani himself had once favourably compared Chouhan with Narendra Modi as a CM. The comparison made Chouhan somewhat paranoid about his future when Modi became Prime Minister.

However, his inimitable skills in ingratiating himself to the new boss mitigated Chouhan’s worries.  On various occasions, he has described the Prime Minister as a “gift of god to the people of India” and “superhuman”.

Now it remains to be seen whether his “God” will bestow on him the boon of another term of Chief Minister, should the BJP stay in power in this election.

Rakesh Dixit is a senior journalist based in Bhopal. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.