Karnataka Elections: Advantage Congress after exit polls. Its bipolar fight with BJP is pushing JD(S) to the margins

BJP's Basavaraj Bommai (left) JD (S) leader HD Kumaraswamy.

The Karnataka exit polls were keenly watched by those who have an interest in electoral politics. The numbers projected by different polls varied across a wide range. Yet, a few trends were discernible in those numbers.

First of nine major projections done, four indicated a clear majority for the Congress party. This majority projection varied from 113 to 131 ( the half way mark in Karnataka is 113). It is interesting that only one  exit poll projected a majority for the ruling BJP, placing it just above the majority mark at 114.

A Clear Trend Visible

Four exit polls believed that no party would have a clear majority. All these five polls, placed the Congress as the single largest party in a range of 101 to 108.  They all placed the BJP at number two in a range of 86 to 98. All polls placed the Janata Dal (S) in a distant third position.

The direction of the trend is quite clear in the exit polls. The advantage appears to be in favour of the Congress and the BJP is projected as being unable to secure a majority (something that has always eluded them). The author has consistently taken the stand throughout the election campaign that this election will not see any indecisive verdict but a clear majority in favour of one of the political parties.

If the exit poll numbers are to be believed, the party that is clearly ahead is the Congress.  They are crossing double digits in all the polls while the BJP is unable to reach triple digits in any of the polls.

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What are the lessons from the exit polls? Firstly, if the exit poll trends become a reality on 13^th of May,it would clearly be a vote against the state government in Karnataka. It would confirm the trend seen since 1985 in Karnataka, that the ruling party is not able to secure a majority in the next elections.

BJP’s National Focus

If the campaign strategy of both the BJP and the Congress were to be assessed, it is clearly indicative of the fact that both were mindful of the public perception of the state government.  They approached the issue from distinctly different lenses.

As for the BJP, they were keen that the spotlight of attention should not be on the state government. Thus, they projected the central government and its leadership as the key elements of their campaign.The state government, if at all mentioned, was done as a belated afterthought. All its campaign material had large photographs of its central leaders with small images of its state-level leaders.

The party did not announce a Chief Minister candidate either. The last time around it had announced its Chief Minister candidate more than a year prior to the elections. BJP leaders openly conceded that their true campaign would begin once the Prime Minister started his campaign in the state. In the last few days of the campaign, the BJP tried to turn the tables on the Congress, by attacking its manifesto promise to ban the Bajrang Dal and equate it with the PFI.

The `Jai Bajrang Bali` slogan became the first line of the election speeches. It could be well argued that if the BJP comes a respectable second, it would have much to do with the campaign of the central leadership of the party. The “double-engine” government which the BJP projected was, in reality, one engine (Centre) leading the other (state).

Congress’s Bommai Target

The exit polls place the Congress ahead, some with a clear majority and some as the single largest party.  If these numbers are what we will be seeing in the actual results of 13^th May, then it is clear that the Congress' electoral strategy has paid political dividends. The Congress kept the campaign wholly local. They focused on targeting the state government.

In response, the BJP did not come up with a spirited defence of their state government. They preferred, on the other hand, to attack the previous Congress government.  The central leadership of the Congress also refrained from raising national issues (like Adani and Rahul Gandhi’s expulsion) but focused on state level issues.

Thus,  there was no conflict between the message being conveyed by the central and state Congress leaders. Even when the BJP tried to turn the tables by making the Bajrang Dal ban the key issues, the Congress came up with a spirited defence as well as  blunting the advantage that the BJP sought to achieve. The focus on the state-level issues was not lost sight of.

The exit polls are also indicative of the fight in Karnataka largely being a bipolar fight with the JD(S) being pushed to the margins. While the vote shares projected in the exit polls clearly indicate that the JD(S) is close to where it was in 2018, it suggests that there will be a dramatic fall in the seats that the party wins. By implication, the JD(S) presence has adversely impacted the BJP more than the Congress.

Clearly, there are differences in the numbers that exit polls project. Yet the direction of the trend seems clear. The ruling BJP appears to be on the backfoot and the Congress has a visible decisive advantage. Is the Congress' advantage one of getting a clear majority or merely being the single largest party is what May 13 will reveal.  The Congress crossing the halfway mark is a distinct possibility.

Sandeep Shastri is vice-chancellor, Jagran Lakecity University, and national coordinator of the Lokniti Network. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.