Karnataka Exit Polls: How accurate were they last time?

Karnataka exit poll results were declared today

Karnataka braces up for results as assembly elections will be declared on Saturday, May 13. The counting for the assembly polls will begin by 8 am at all 224 assembly constituencies.

The exit polls, conducted by various leading agencies, have largely predicted a hung Assembly with Congress as the single largest party.

It remains to be seen, however, whether pollsters have been able to do a repeat of 2018, when their predictions of a hung Assembly with the BJP as the largest party came true.

The exit poll numbers for this year's election, which were released today, shows that Karnataka will be having a hung Assembly with the Congress as the largest party.

An analysis of the exit poll figures released by prominent agencies shows that the Congress is expected to win around an average of 109 seats, while the BJP and the JDS could win in 90 and 24 constituencies, respectively.

Track record

In the 2018 elections, most exit polls had predicted a hung assembly, with the BJP as the single largest party but falling short of the majority mark. The actual results turned out to be a hung assembly as well, with BJP winning in 104 seats, and Congress and JDS winning in 80 and 38 seats, respectively.

Although pollsters had broadly read the tea leaves right and predicted the overall trend correctly, they got a few things wrong as well. Most exit polls overestimated the seat share of the Congress, while underestimating that of the JDS+, as can be seen from the chart above.

Opinion polls vs exit polls

Similar to the exit polls, most pre-poll opinion surveys had also predicted a hung assembly in Karnataka, with Congress as the single largest party.

A comparison of the reports released by pollsters we track, who conducted both the surveys, shows mixed trends. C Voter, which had given a clear majority to Congress in its opinion poll, now projects that the party will narrowly miss the majority mark.

Meanwhile, CNX, People's Pulse, and Matrize, have increased the predicted seat share for Congress in the exit polls figures they have released.

Exit polls are not infallible

While exit polls are often considered a good tool to gauge general election trends, they are not infallible. They have been known to overestimate or underestimate voting patterns, as was seen in the 2018 elections, despite forecasting the overall results correctly.

In about 48 hours we will know whether pollsters have accurately captured the mood of the electorate this time, or whether they have missed the mark.