Maharashtra Exit Poll 2024 Highlights (November 20): Advantage Mahayuti, but MVA still in the race, predict pollsters

On exit poll predictions for Maharashtra & Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Rajendra Shukla said, "The country is standing strongly with Modi Ji, and one after another election results are proving this... The BJP alliance will get more seats than what is being said in the exit polls. There is no confusion among the people that if the country has to be developed and the country has to be made a superpower, then only Modi Ji can make this difficult task possible, that is why the public is standing with him."

Reacting to the exit polls, Maharashtra minister and senior NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal said that '100% Mahayuti is formimg the govt once again.' Bhujbal is contesting from Yeola.

• Sudarshan News' exit poll has projected Mahayuti alliance coming back to power. Here's what the breakup of Mahayuti performance:
• BJP- 85-95
• Shiv Sea - 38-42
• NCP- 25-30
• For the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance, Sudarshan exit polls predict anywhere between 99 and 114 seats. Here's the breakup for MVA projections
• Congress - 45-50
• SS (UBT) - 28-33
• NCP (SP) - 26-31

Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole told News18 that MVA will be forming the government on November 23. He also claimed that in Vidarbha region, out of 62 seats of the area, Congress will win 45 seats.

Sounding very confident, Maharashtra Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis says the Mahayuti Alliance is coming back to power with thumping win on November 23.

• Abu Azmi is projected to win Mankhurd Shivajinagar seat, according to JVC exit poll
• Ameen Patel is predicted to win Mumbadevi Assembly constituency, according to JVC exit poll

JVC exit poll predicts that Ajit Pawar is likely to win the prestige battle of Baramati.

For Mahim, JVC exit poll predicts Amit Thackeray's win

Another exit poll data is here. According to the News 24-Chanakya exit poll, incumbent Mahayuti alliance will return to power with bumper win on 152-160 seats. On the other hand, Congress-led MVA is likely to bag 130-138 seats out of 288 Assembly constituencies. Others may get up to 8 seats in the state, the exit poll by News 24-Chanakya says.

• After Dainik Bhaskar, another exit poll by Lokshahi Rudra predicts a hung Assembly in Maharashtra. Here's what the projections say:
• Mahayuti- 128-142
• MVA - 125-140

As against the current trend of projections, Dainik Bhaskar's exit poll has predicted a hung Assembly in Maharahstra. According to the tally released by Dainik Bhaskar exit poll, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is likely to win 125-140 seats. On the other hand, Maha Vikas Aghadi is projected to win anywhere between 135-150 seats. Others including Independent candidates are likely to bag 20-25 seats.

While giving a massive win for BJP-led Mahayuti, the exit poll by People's Pulse predicts 85-112 seats for MVA on November 23.

People's Pulse predicts a landslide victory for the Mahayuti alliance in the upcoming elections on November 23. The BJP-led coalition is projected to secure between 175 and 195 seats.

• Exit poll by Poll Diary has predicted a clear win for BJP-led alliance. Here's look at the breakup
• Mahayuti - 122-186
• Maha Vikas Aghadi - 69-121
• Others 12-29

As far as the vote share is concerned, the ABP-Matrize exit poll puts BJP-led alliance’s vote share at 48%. For Congress-led MVA, the vote share is predicted at 42%. Others are predicted to win 10 percent of the vote share.

Chanakya Strategies exit poll predicts Maha Vika Aghadi to win anywhere between 130 to 138 seats. As far as ruling Mahayuti is concerned, Chanakya Strategies forecasts 150 to 162 seats.

• According to the exit poll by ABP-Matrize, Maha Vikas Aghadi is likely to win up to 130 seats. Here's the party-wise breakup as per the ABP-Matrize exit poll
• Congress - 39-47 seats
• Shiv Sena (UBT) - 21-29 seats
• NCP (SP) - 35-43 seats

• Here's how the numbers look for the Mahayuti alliance. Party-wise breakup
• BJP - 89-101 seats
• Shiv Sena - 37-45 seats
• NCP - 17-26

• Mahayuti- 150-170 seats
• MVA - 110-130 seats

• Mahayuti Alliance - 137-157 seats
• MVA - 126-146 seats
• Others - 2-8 seats
• The first of the poll predictions are here. The forecast by the P-Marq says that BJP-led Mahayuti will return to power Maharashtra.
• However, it won't be a cakewalk as MVA is predicted to win anywhere between 126 and 146 seats.

As of now, these regional channels will release the exit polls of Maharashtra. These are NDTV Marathi, ABP Majha, TV9 Marathi

• In the 2019 Maharashtra elections, exit polls overestimated the BJP-Shiv Sena (undivided) alliance's performance:
• Average prediction: 207 seats
• Actual outcome: 161 seats
• The Congress-NCP alliance's performance was underestimated:
• Predicted seats: 65
• Actual outcome: 98
• News18-IPSOS was the least accurate:
• Predicted 243 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance.
• India Today-Axis My India was the most accurate:
• Provided a lower-bound estimate of 166 seats, closest to the actual result.

“Didn't choose tinday but stuck with tinday? That's what happens when someone else makes the choice for you. Cast your vote. Own your choices. Every vote counts. #MaharashtraElections. #20thNovembers,” the message on bag of tindays sent to the customers by Swiggy Instamart read. Several Mumbaikars shared the pics of the gourd bags on X.

Swiggy's Instamart today offered  free 'tinday' to voters. Those who were placing orders on Instamart in Mumbai reportedly got free tinday or Indian gourds.

Supriya Sule, daughter of NCP supremo Sharad Pawar, faced allegations linked to a 'Bitcoin scam' that surfaced on the eve of polling in Maharashtra on Wednesday. Maharashtra Congress President Nana Patole was also accused of involvement in the alleged corruption.

The Vidarbha region, which holds 62 of the 288 seats in Maharashtra's legislative assembly, is the state's second-largest region after Western Maharashtra. Traditionally a BJP stronghold, Vidarbha witnessed a notable shift in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with the MVA securing seven out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the region.

• Ahmednagar-47.85%
• Akola-44.45%
• Osmanabad-45.81%
• Hingoli-49.64%
• Amrawati-45.13%
• Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar-47.05%
• Beed-46.15%
• Bhandara-51.32%'
• Buldhana-47.48%
• Nagpur-44.45%
• Chandrapur-49.87%
• Dhule-47.62%
• Gadchiroli-62.99%
• Gondiya-53.88%
• Nandurbar-51.16%
• Raigad-48.13%
• Jalgaon-40.62%
• Ratnagiri-50.04%
• Jalna-50.14%
• Nashik-46.86%Mumbai Suburban-40.89%
• Kolhapur-54.06%
• Latur-48.34%
• Mumbai City-39.34%
• Palghar-46.82%
• Sindhudurg-51.05%
• Pune-41.70%
• Nanded-42.87%
• Parbhani-48.84%
• Yavatmal-48.81%
• Wardha-49.68%
• Sangli-48.39%
• Satara-49.82%
• Solapur-43.49%
• Thane-38.94%
• Washim-43.67%

• Dharavi - 46.15%
• Sion-Koliwada - 50.54%
• Wadala - 52.62%
• Mahim - 55.23%
• Worli - 47.5%
• Shivadi - 51.7%
• Byculla - 50.41%
• Malabar Hill - 50.08%
• Mumbadevi - 46.1%
• Colaba- 41.64%

An independent candidate reportedly died of heart attack inside a polling booth in Maharashtra's Beed. According to latest media report, the Independent candidate has been identified as one Balasaheb Shinde. An IANS report said that Shinde was rushed to two nearby hospitals but could not be saved.

The direct battle the Congress and the BJP on as many as 76 seats can be one of the deciding factors in the final outcome of the Maharashtra Elections. The BJP is saying that it has confidence in winning 50 seats out of this direct battle. If this actualises on November 23, it can change the game and power equation within the Mahayuti alliance.

Both political alliances have intensified their pledges, presenting a variety of cash incentives and subsidies. The Mahayuti alliance has promised Rs 1,500 under the Ladki Bahin scheme, while the MVA offers Rs 3,000 for women, free bus travel, and Rs 4,000 for unemployed youth. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has gone a step further, promising Rs 2,100 per month for women, farm loan waivers, and lower electricity bills. This escalating competition of benefits is expected to play a significant role in shaping voter decisions.

The BJP is dealing with 43 rebel candidates, while the Shiv Sena and NCP are facing rebellions from 10 and 14 candidates, respectively.

The opposition of Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil also dented the Mahayuti in parts of Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra in the general polls.

In Maharashtra, Maratha votes have always been crucial for every party. This time around, the reservation for Marathas has been the critical, specifically in Marathwada. Here, as the name of the region suggests, Maratha voters hold key to the electoral fate. Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil, who has been demanding quota for the community has repeatedly slammed the Eknath Shinde government. Sensing the discontent, the BJP has been trying to woo other voters from the tribal and other OBCs.

• BJP: Contesting 149 seats
• NCP (SP): Contesting 86 seats
• Shiv Sena (UBT): Contesting 95 seats
• Ajit Pawar-led NCP: Contesting 59 seats
• Congress (opposition alliance): Contesting 101 seats
• Shiv Sena: Contesting 81 seats

Stage is set for the Maharashtra exit polls. Axis My India's Managing Director Pradeep Gupta will appear on News18 from 7:30 pm onwards.

Challenges in elections stem from the diversity of voters, the over- or under-representation of certain groups, and the complexities of multi-party systems and shifting political alliances. Experts suggest that refining vote counting methods and focusing on selective polling in swing constituencies can improve accuracy. Nevertheless, traditional techniques remain essential for estimating vote shares and analyzing voter behavior.

The high-pitched poll campaign saw top leadership of both BJP and Congress addressing rallies across Maharashtra. Some of the top slogans that became talk of the town were - 'ek hain toh safe hain, 'vote jihad' and 'batenge to katenge'

The Phalodi Satta Bazar predicts a possible return of the Mahayuti government in Maharashtra, with the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance expected to secure 144-152 of the 288 Assembly seats. This suggests a narrow lead for the ruling coalition in what could be a tightly contested election.

With a significant number of rebels and independents in the fray, and multiple candidates in each constituency, independents and rebels are expected to influence outcomes in at least 30 to 35 seats. Unlike the Lok Sabha elections, where they were largely irrelevant, these candidates could play a decisive role in the Assembly polls. Politically, the elections will serve as a litmus test for the strength of both factions of the NCP and Shiv Sena. In the regions highlighted, the factions resulting from party splits seem to resonate well with the masses. The BJP, contesting 148 seats, will need to navigate these dynamics to determine whether it can secure a third consecutive term as the single largest party.

The uproar over inflation and GST in both rural and urban Maharashtra continues to echo, as it did during the Lok Sabha elections. Alongside the intensified Hindutva stance and the Ladki Bahin Yojana, many of the key issues that influenced the Lok Sabha polls are also shaping the Assembly elections, though to varying extents. Officially, top leaders from both the Mahayuti and MVA alliances express confidence in their ability to form the government.

Exit polls are usually broadcast live on YouTube and news channels. Some are published in partnership with news outlets, while others are released independently. Key pollsters' exit poll results can also be accessed on moneycontrol.com.

The Ladki Bahin Yojna announced by the Eknath Shinde government earlier this year will be put to test in the polls. Under the scheme, Rs 1,500 monthly allowance is given to women. Out of 4.6 crore women voters, 2.22 crore are the beneficiaries of the Ladki Bahin scheme. The Maharashtra verdict will show whether the scheme managed to sway the women voters for Mahayuti or not

Under Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, exit polls cannot be conducted or disseminated until the final phase of voting has ended in the respective state.

• “No person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise by means of the print or electronic media or disseminate in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of an exit poll during such period as may be notified by the Election Commission in this regard.”
• “As per the guidelines, in the case of a single-phase election, result of opinion/exit polls carried out at any time, cannot be published, publicized or disseminated in any manner, during the period of 48 hours ending with the hour fixed for conclusion of poll,” according to the Election Commission of India

Exit polls are seen as the prelude to the D-Day when the actual results are announced. However, there is always a factor of reliability when looking at the numbers announced by the exit polls. For these, the key factors that impact the reliability and accuracy of the exit polls are – margin of error, sample size and openness and honesty of the voters while giving their responses.

• The Election Commission of India’s data shows that there are 9.7 crore eligible voters in Maharashtra. Out of these, 47,392 are centenarians, as per the age group data. Maharashtra has 22,22,704 voters in the age group of 18-19 years. The oldest voter is Maharashtra is 107.
• Maharashtra has 9,70,25,119 registered voters. There are 4,69,96,279 women voters in Maharashtra. On the other hand, 5,00,22,739 are men voters in the state. The data by the Election Commission of India shows that 6,101 voters identify themselves from third gender community.

The Grand Old Party is fighting the Maharashtra election in an alliance with NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray). According to the seat-sharing pact, Congress is fighting the state polls on 101 Assembly constituencies. On the other hand, and NCP (SP) is contesting on 88 seats and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) on 94 seats.

The BJP, which is contesting the election for a comeback to the power, is in an alliance in Maharashtra. While BJP is the main party in the alliance, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) are the other parties of the group. As per the seat-sharing formula agreed by the alliance, the BJP is contesting on as many as 148 seats, Shiv Sena on 80 and NCP on 53 seats.

• Muslim consolidation against the BJP-led Mahayuti is a crucial factor in the Assembly elections. During the Lok Sabha polls, Muslim organisations collectively decided not to vote for Mahayuti, and their political stance remains unchanged.
• With 11.56% (1.3 crore) of the state’s population, Muslims play a decisive role in at least 38 constituencies, where their vote share ranges from 33.1% to 78.4%. The Congress has promised to introduce reservations for Muslims in its manifesto if it comes to power.

• Farmers’ unrest remained a significant issue across the rural belt, similar to the discontent observed during the Lok Sabha elections.
• Despite bold interventions and numerous promises in poll manifestos, many farmers expressed anger and disappointment over falling crop prices.
• Soybean and cotton, the primary crops in Marathwada and Vidarbha, fetched lower prices than the Minimum Support Price (MSP):
• Soybean: Sold for Rs 3,500 to Rs 4,000 per quintal, compared to the MSP of Rs 4,892 per quintal.
• Cotton: Sold for Rs 5,500 to Rs 7,000 per quintal, against the MSP of Rs 7,100 per quintal.

Out of five regions in Maharashtra, Vidarbha is one of the key areas. It has with 62 Assembly seats. In Vidarbha, the OBC factor is the central theme for the electoral battle. Which party manages the critical OBC vote bank will be the deciding factor in the November 23 verdict.

• An exit poll is essentially a survey based on interviews taken of voters as they exit polling booths after casting their votes. The exit poll estimates are not always correct as was seen during the Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly elections in Haryana. Pollsters had predicted a clear majority for the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and showed the Congress returning to power after a decade in Haryana. However, the BJP fell short of a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha and had to seek the support of TDP and JD(U) to be able to form a government. However, the BJP sprang a surprise in Haryana and emerged victorious in a contest all pollsters thought was going the Congress' way.
• Exit polls are carried out by poll research agencies and are telecast by television channels after voting has concluded for all seats in a particular state. As per the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, under Section 126A, exit polls cannot be conducted or disseminated until the final phase of voting concludes.
• The reliability of exit polls depends on factors such as sampling methods, margins of error and voter honesty and openness to participate. Exit polls can often help us identify the voters' behavior but are, by no means, the final result.

A key factor influencing this election, particularly in the Marathwada region, is the issue of Maratha reservation. Activist Manoj Jarange Patil’s shifting stance on the matter appears to be aimed at challenging the BJP. According to insiders, the MVA is looking to capitalize on the growing anti-BJP sentiments among Marathas in the drought-prone Marathwada region, which accounts for 46 seats.

In Maharashtra, Dalit community has significant presence. In terms of population across the state, Dalit populations stands at 10.8 percent. Out of 288 seats in Maharashtra, 54 have been categorised for Dalits - 25 scheduled tribes and 29 scheduled castes

Unlike the Lok Sabha elections, the rhetoric around the " Constitution khatre mein hai" has been less prominent in the Assembly polls. The MVA capitalised on the "Samvidhan khatre mein hai" narrative during the Lok Sabha elections. This helped the alliance in securing 31 out of 48 seats in the General Elections. However, in the Assembly elections, Dalits are no longer focused on constitutional threats. What has unsettled some voters, though, is the growing communal divide, which many feel contradicts the principles enshrined in the Constitution.

Axis My India will be releasing the results of the Maharashtra Exit Polls from 6:30 pm onwards. Axis My India's MD Pradeep Gupta took to X (formerly Twitter) to announce the update on exit polls.

• There is a lot riding on Maharashtra for the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, especially after the Lok Sabha setback in the state. While the NDA's overall tally in the state dropped to 18 of the 48 seats in the state, the BJP suffered maximum damage as its seats fell from 23 in 2014 and 2019 to 9 seats in 2024.
• The outcome, when clubbed with the UP debacle, deprived the BJP of a clear majority in the Lok Sabha for the first time in three elections. The results were seen as a rejection of the BJP's brand of Hindutva politics and painted it as a party that caused fissures within the Opposition to gain political mileage.
• With the elections this time centred around the BJP and Modi's brand of developmental politics, issues such as 'vote jihad', 'batenge to katenge' -- all attempts to consolidate the Hindu vote, will be crucial in determining the continued aura of 'Brand Modi' as well as the BJP's style of politics. The verdict will also help shape the national political narrative that shifted in the Opposition's favour after the Lok Sabha elections, but leaned back towards the BJP after its surprising win in Haryana.

The elections in 2024 are being fought in a vastly changed political landscape from 2019. In the previous elections, the Shiv Sena was united and aligned with the NDA. It has since broken into two factions with Uddhav Thackeray now with the MVA and the Eknath Shinde faction with NDA's Mahayuti. Similarly, the NCP has been split into two factions led by Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar. Both leaders are leading factions on opposite sides of the political spectrum in the state.

Hindutva has been the main strategy for the BJP, be it the Lok Sabha Election or the Assembly polls. Earlier this year, the mood in the BJP camp was that the ‘pran pratishtha’ of Ram Mandir in Ayodhaya will help the party and its allies in the General Election. However, when the results were announced on June 4, it was a rude shock for the BJP. Out of 48 Parliamentary constituencies, the Mahayuti alliance managed just 17 seats with BJP getting only nine.

• Pollsters are expected to release their exit polls findings for Maharashtra after 6.30 PM as voting concludes. While there is a lot of skepticism surrounding exit poll results after back-to-back disasters in the Lok Sabha elections and the Haryana Assembly elections, it is pertinent to look back and see how accurate the findings of major exit polls in Maharashtra were in the 2019 polls.
• ABP News Exit Poll: The exit poll predicted 210 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 63 seats for the Congress-led UPA.
• India Today: A ‘poll of polls’ result based on six exit polls predicted a score of 213 for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, and 61 for the Congress-NCP.
• Result: The BJP won 105 seats while the Shiv Sena bagged 56 seats, taking the then NDA’s total to 161, well above the majority mark of 145. The Congress won 44 seats, and the NCP, 54, for a total of 98.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘ek hain toh safe hain’ to Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ‘batenge toh katenge’ are seen as part of the plan to rally the support of a consolidated Hindu votebank. The learning has come from the Lok Sabha Electiion, where the fragmentation worked in disadvantage of BJP. Whether this hard Hindu stance has worked for the ruling BJP or not will be known on November 23.

The BJP went from Hindutva to hard Hindutva in the Maharashtra Election. The party went on to invigorate all RSS-affiliated right-wing organisations. It also tried to galvanise the Hindu vote bank, which has seen fragmentation due to issues such as reservation for Maratha community, caste politics of OBC and class struggle.

From June, when MVA clearly trounced Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha Election results, the latter seems to have narrowed its gap in the state polls. Now, the situation is the everyone is calling it a close contest that will go down the wires.

Sharad Pawar aims to deliver a decisive blow to his nephew Ajit Pawar, who, in turn, is determined to recover from the Lok Sabha setback and reestablish his political standing. Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena tussle promises to be even more captivating, as the two rival factions vie to assert their dominance over Mumbai and solidify their claim as the rightful inheritors of Bal Thackeray's legacy.

The 288 seats of Maharashtra Assembly have been divided into five key regions across the state. These five regions are - Marathwada, Konkan, Vidarbha, Western and North Maharashtra.

The stakes are extraordinarily high for regional heavyweights like Sharad Pawar, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, his predecessor Uddhav Thackeray, and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar. The two Pawars, Shinde, and Thackeray are locked in a fierce battle to secure popular legitimacy for their respective factions. The election’s outcome could potentially signal the political downfall of at least two of these prominent leaders.

As per the seat-sharing formula announced by both alliances, the two factions of NCP will contest against each other on as many as 37 seats. Similarly, Maharashtra is seeing Sena vs Sena battles on 51 seats.

The Maharashtra elections follow a turbulent five years marked by significant upheavals in the state's political landscape. This year’s contest introduces two new regional players: the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party.

The results of the Maharashtra Elections will be announced by the Election Commission of India on Saturday, November 23, 2024.

Maharashtra Assembly has 288 constituencies. The Election Commission is carrying out the state polls in the single phase today. The main battle is between two alliances - Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi.

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of Maharashtra exit polls. As we wait for the poll predictions that will be announced later in the evening, we take you through the political journey of all parties in Maharashtra, new players in the fray and how things have unfolded so far. This time, while the bigger picture is the direct battle between Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance, the under current mood is about the survival of the regional parties. The faction war that has changed the game for Shiv Sena and NCP is likely to make or break the fate of the leaders such as Ajit Pawar, Eknath Shinde among others. Stay with us for latest political trends, insights and more from Maharashtra.