The question everyone’s asking in Chhattisgarh: Who will be the CM?

Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel with his deputy TS Singh Deo.

Who will be the next Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh? That’s the question dominating the state’s political mindscape ahead of the counting for the 2023 assembly elections on December 3. In 2018, the state Congress defeated the BJP in a landslide victory.

All eight exit polls have predicted that the Congress will win a clear majority, while three have shown that Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel will get a second straight term. In the tribal-dominated state, the Congress had campaigned on the back of its paddy procurement scheme and other welfare programmes, with the BJP charging Baghel with corruption.

Even if the Congress retains power, it is uncertain if Baghel will secure a second term as Chief Minister. The party projected a loss of 20-plus seats, and corruption allegations against Baghel's close associates could potentially open the door for other contenders to the Chief Minister’s post.
Former Chief Minister and BJP leader, Dr Raman Singh, had predicted 52-54 seats for the BJP a few days after the votes were cast. Singh was confident that the BJP would form the government in the state.

Baghel rebutted him saying that in the three elections that the BJP won in 2003, 2008, and 2013, their best performance was 52 seats. Whereas Congress' best performance was 68 seats, in 2018. Following the bye-elections due to the passing away of three MLAs, and one vacancy resulting from Chitrakote MLA Deepak Baij moving to the Lok Sabha, Congress' tally rose to 71 out of 90 seats. The BJP managed just 15.

Going by trends in the last four assembly elections in the state, any party securing 50+ seats is likely to win comfortably.

The BJP had not projected a Chief Ministerial face for Chhattisgarh during these elections, banking instead on projecting the party’s collective leadership, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah expending considerable political capital in the run-up to the polls.

The Congress, on the other hand, has relied on Baghel's leadership, and opinion polls before the election showed that he enjoyed high popularity ratings. But just months before the election, the party shifted its stance, proceeding with collective leadership. Accordingly, It made TS Singh Deo the Deputy Chief Minister, and changed the slogan from "Bhupesh hai toh Bharosa hai" (you can rely on Bhupesh) to "Bharose ki Sarkaar," (a government that can be trusted).
We need to see whether this strategy has worked for the party, or confused the cadre and the voters.
Or is a BJP-win likely, something that exit polls haven’t been able to read?