Assembly Elections 2023: Who will win? Factors that shaped 2018, 2013 outcomes missing this time

For Congress, emerging as the victor in such hotly contested states would come as a morale boost for their cadre

Exit poll projections are a mixed bag on Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram, with some sort of clarity for Chhattisgarh and Telangana. As these are not exact polls, we will have to wait a few more hours today for the actual picture. What do the earlier election cycles indicate? Can they help us understand which way the direction is blowing in 2023?

Each election is different and is fought in a different context. Despite being dissimilar it's also true that they are eerily similar in many ways.

Also Read: Assembly Election Results 2023 Live: BJP ahead in Rajasthan and MP, Cong gaining in Telangana

2013 Vs 2018: Modi Wave Of 2013

In 2013, BJP retained power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The party had been in power in these states for 10 years and the results were positively impacted by a Modi wave in the country ahead of 2014 general elections and as these polls were held just 3-4 months prior, it did play a big role.

The BJP Chief Ministers were popular, with no real competition from any Congress leader, and it was a pro-incumbency vote as well with farmers appreciating progress in the agriculture sector, especially in MP.

In 2013, BJP snatched power from Congress in Rajasthan, but it was more to do with the riwaz of alternate governments in the state. The tally of 163 (more than three fourth majority) was positively impacted by the Modi factor like in other states. Otherwise, BJP would have won a comfortable majority but not such a big sweep.

In 2013, Congress retained Mizoram. BJP was nowhere in the picture in the state. Congress won  most likely due to the fact that northeastern states tend to swing towards the party in power at the Centre, to which they are dependent for grants and other funds. At that time UPA was in power at the Centre. And the Northeast in that pre-2014 era had still not been – to use a popular phrase – “Modi-fied”.

2018 Vs 2013: Anti-Incumbency The Buzzword

In 2018, BJP lost all the three Hindi heartland states: Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Rajasthan was again a riwaz story with people adhering to the trend of voting out the incumbent government every five years.

In MP and Chhattisgarh, Congress was able to exploit fatigue and anti-incumbency against the 15 year old government. Its promise of farm loan waivers attracted and made a dent in the key votebank of BJP. Additionally, Congress was able to pitch a combined leadership who were able to match Shivraj and Raman Singh.

The Modi factor normally doesn’t work where BJP is in power – recall Himachal and Karnataka recently – as voters rate state government performance. Mizoram voted for a regional party MNF, which is part of NDA, in line with efforts of people to have a good working relationship with the central government.

2023 Vs 2018: Delivery Vs Promises

The 2008-13 and 2013-18 election cycle trends do not provide solid clues as to who will win 2023. Each state is unique. Local anti-incumbency against MLAs is high. Parties have changed MLAs across states in the range of 15-30 percent (though Telangana it was lower).

Rajasthan Congress under Ashok Gehlot hopes to break the trend of booting out incumbents like Punjab (2012), Tamil Nadu (2016) and Kerala (2021). Mama Shivraj hopes to make MP a citadel of BJP like Gujarat. Bhupesh Baghel and KCR hope to retain power through their labharthi models. As can be seen, competing pro- and anti-incumbency themes are at play.

While the five governments are banking on delivery, the opposition is banking on promises to lure the voters. 2023 could throw up interesting results, which will need to be studied in detail to understand new trends and voting patterns.