Assembly Elections 2023: Enjoy exit polls with popcorn, but wait till Dec 3 for real picture

Assembly Elections 2023: All these states are having “kaante ki takkar” according to most analysts which complicates the task of pollsters.

When polling for Telangana concludes, exit polls will be released for the five states. There is a lot of excitement as the five state elections have been touted as the semi-finals before the grande finale in 2024. Exit polls are normally a better barometer than opinion polls and if not quite accurate in terms of seats, they do suggest the direction of the trend. However, of late they have added to the confusion.

They are undertaken after a voter has polled his/her vote which can be different from intention to vote expressed in an opinion poll. Late deciders, 25-30 percent voters finally decide just 2-3 days before polling as per CSDS National Election Studies. Certain events during the period from the last day of opinion polls, November 5 to voting day for each state, could also change voting preferences.

All these states are having “kaante ki takkar” according to most analysts which complicates the task of pollsters. The 2018 exit poll projections for four states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana – show that pollsters had a tough time.

Accuracy of exit polls could be judged from three angles:

i) whether the agency has been able to predict the winner correctly (direction right or wrong)

ii) whether the vote share prediction is right

iii) whether the seats tally estimate is right

Though vote share is an important barometer, it gets lost in the din of TV channel debates on the day as a lot of focus is on seats tally and which party is expected to form the government. So we have evaluated projections based on (i) and (iii) above. Also, lately agencies have started playing safe with big ranges for seats, we have considered the midpoint of range for seat tally prediction.

For Rajasthan, data is available for seven agencies. All of them barring one got the direction right, thanks to the riwaz of alternate governments. However, only three of them could get the seat tally right within a range of +/- 5 seats, the majority predicted a comfortable victory for Congress, while it ended up with just 100 seats, exact simple majority, in alliance with RLD.

For Madhya Pradesh, data is available for 11 agencies, half of them, got the direction right, and only one-third got the seat tally right. In a nail biting finish the difference between BJP and Congress was just 5 seats and vote share gap just 0.1 percent.

For Chhattisgarh, data is available for 10 agencies, half of them and none of them could get the seat tally right. In a wave election, Congress won 68/90 seats, still only half could get it right and nobody could predict the wave on the ground in favour of Congress. While MP was a tight election hence difficult to call, Chhattisgarh in hindsight should have been easy for pollsters to estimate.

For Telangana, data is available for six agencies, four of them were predicting a hung assembly with TRS/BRS as the single largest party. TRS won a three fourth majority while only one agency was near the mark. Again a sweep election like Chhattisgarh which most pollsters are struggling to get it right.

In terms of direction of trend, barring Rajasthan the miss rate for the three other states is high between 45-67 percent. In terms of seat tally, the miss rate is even higher, even for a swing state like Rajasthan the miss rate (number of pollsters getting seat tally within +/- 5 seats range divided by total number of exit poll calls available), is more than 50 percent.

Given the track record one needs to wait till 3rd of December to get the clear picture.  Exit polls quench our curiosity and anxiety between the last day of the election and the counting day. Even if they are wrong, it eases the curious mind and probably ensures proper sleep. So enjoy your popcorn when you are hooked to the TV screen!