South movies limit Bollywood's Rs 1,800 crore loss; PVR Inox to script a comeback

South movies limit Bollywood's Rs 1,800 crore loss; PVR Inox to script a comeback

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With a Rs 1,870-crore loss, Bollywood had a tough time last year. But on the bright side, movies from down south helped restrict some of the losses.

The Hindi box office saw a  13 percent decline. However, if the contribution of dubbed versions of South Indian films is taken out of the equation, the drop was a steep 37 percent.

At Rs 4,679 crore, the Hindi box office last year fell from its record business of Rs 5,380 crore in 2023, noted media consulting firm Ormax.

In 2023, dubbed titles had a share of around 5 percent of all films at Rs 295 crore with business from Hindi originals recorded at Rs 5,085 crore.

On the other hand, last year, the share of dubbed titles increased significantly to 31 percent at Rs 1,464 crore while business from original Hindi movies stood at Rs 3,215 crore.

South shines

The strong performance of dubbed titles - especially Pushpa 2: The Rule and Kalki 2898 AD helped limit the overall decline of the Hindi box office to 13 percent last year.  Pushpa 2: The Rule became the highest-grossing film of 2024, with a gross box office of Rs 1,403 crore. Its dubbed Hindi version achieved Rs 889 crore, setting a new record as the highest-grossing Hindi film of all time.

Pushpa 2: The Rule, Kalki 2898 AD and Stree 2 were the only films to surpass the Rs 500-crore mark at the India box office. Devara - Part 1, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 and The Greatest Of All Time were the other three films to gross above Rs 300 crore in 2024.

Only six original Hindi language films were able to gross more than Rs 100 crore this year, compared to 16 in 2023.

Hindi cinema’s share declined to 40 percent from 44 percent in 2023, while most other languages, including Tamil, Telugu and Hollywood releases held steady.

Malayalam cinema had a breakout year, doubling its share from 5 percent in 2023 to 10 percent in 2024. Its box office business grew the highest with more than 100 percent increase in 2024 at Rs 1,165 crore from Rs 572 crore in 2023.

Another industry that saw sharp increase in business at 66 percent was Gujarati cinema which grew to Rs 84 crore last year from Rs 50 crore.

Box office collections of Hollywood films recorded steepest decline of 17 percent to Rs 941 crore from Rs 1,139 crore.

Footfalls in cinemas at 88.3 crore saw the biggest drop last year, excluding the years when pandemic had hit the theatre business hard in 2020 and 2021. Last year, footfalls were down by 6 percent from 94.3 crore in 2023, falling below 2022 level of 89.2 crore despite higher box office collections in 2024 versus 2022.

India's total box office collection was Rs 11,833 crore last year, down from Rs 12,226 crore in 2024. In 2022, the box office stood at Rs 10,637 crore.

Hindi cinema’s footfalls dropped by 16 percent in 2024 at 23 crore, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic footfalls, which were above the 30-crore mark in most years. In 2023, footfalls for Hindi cinema were 27.5 crore.

Business in Q3

From Manjummel Boys to Amaran, regional cinema continued its dominance at the box office last year and the story was no different during the December quarter of FY25.

"Industry-wide box office collections increased by 31.7 percent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 3,370 crore in the third quarter of FY25 driven by movies like Pushpa 2, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, and Singham Again, coupled with strong performances from Amaran, Vettaiyan, and Mufasa-The Lion King," said analyst Jinesh Joshi of brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher.

However he added that India's top largest multiplex chain PVR Inox’s box office market share is expected to be lower in Q3 given the dominance of regional content.

The company's revenue from ticket sales is estimated at Rs 899.6 crore in the December quarter, up 8 percent YoY from Rs 830.8 crore, according to Emkay Research analysis. It's total revenue is expected to increase 9 percent to Rs 1,691.2 crore from Rs 1,545.9 crore during the same quarter a year ago. Its Profit After Tax (PAT) is estimated at Rs 24.9 crore, up from Rs 13 crore during the same period a year ago. The company had reported a loss of Rs 12 crore in the September quarter of FY25.

Sequentially, key metrics may script a strong comeback, said Karan Taurani, Senior Vice-President, Elara Capital. He expects occupancy at 27 percent, up from 25.7 percent in the second quarter of FY25 and 25.2 percent in the third quarter of FY24.

Emkay Global's Pulkit Chawla expects average ticket price (ATP) in the third quarter of  FY25 to increase to Rs 280 from Rs 257 in the second quarter of FY25 and Rs 271 in the third quarter of FY24. Spend Per Head (SPH) too is estimated to be higher during the December quarter at Rs 140 versus Rs 136 in the second quarter of FY25 and Rs 132 in the third quarter of FY24. "ATP should see a sharp improvement due to better performance of big budget movies, while SPH should also see a small uptick," he added.

Joshi expects PVR Inox to report footfalls of 3.7 crore in Q3, up around 1.5 percent YoY from 3.65 crore admissions a year ago.

Advertising revenue is expected to grow slightly YoY at Rs 150 crore in the third quarter versus Rs 140.5 crore in the year ago period but a sharp growth sequentially from Rs 110 crore in the second quarter of FY25.

In terms of screen additions, Chawla noted that the multiplex chain opened  11 new screens in the December quarter. However, net screen count is likely to remain similar to the last quarter as the company continues to cull loss-making screens on an ongoing basis.

Hopes on new lineup

Exhibitors are pinning a lot of hope on this year's lineup that includes many star-led releases including Salman Khan's Sikandar to be released during Eid, Akshay Kumar's Sky Force on January 24, among others.

However, it is Pushpa 2 that continues to keep the cash register ringing along with Mufasa: The Lion King, latest release Fateh starring Sonu Sood, Ram Charan's Game Changer and the re-run of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani.

"Pipeline of Bollywood movies has a mix of big and medium-budget movies, some of which can do well at the box office, though potential all-time blockbusters are absent. The Hollywood pipeline is now looking up, as the impact of the writers’ strike subsides," Chawla said.