RJD wants to ride on MY-BAAP as Tejashwi widens the offering

Tejashwi has been keen to shed the Muslim-Yadav tag for RJD crafted by his father in the early 1990s to carve out the significant vote bank in his favour.

An acronym can pack in a punch when used at the right time, in the right space, by the right people.

In that sense, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) got it right under Lalu Prasad Yadav when it coined the acronym MY (Muslim-Yadav) to cement its place in the state. MY hit the bull’s eye in positioning and marketing a concept. Except the product being sold was an election offering. It was meant to convey a message: RJD was firmly with the Muslims and Yadavs in Bihar.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the MY acronym has acquired an intriguing appendage: BAAP. So, it is now MY-BAAP.

Also Read | RJD-led INDIA bloc in Bihar can dent NDA tally, Congress remains weak link

BAAP stands for Bahujan (Backwards and Dalits), Agdaa (forwards) , Aadhi Abaadi (women), Pichda and poor.

Intriguingly, the mood is divided among state poll observers about the resonance and relevance of the MY-BAAP factor. Some say this would only give a marginal gain to RJD as it failed in its promises. The acronyms are not much more than taglines.

Others echoed the same line saying MY was a “restrictive vote” in the first place. Hence, it had to be extrapolated to include BAAP as a wider offering. And that it won’t matter in Bihar.

It was meant to juice up a stale offering.

But this is not the last of it. In a politically razor-sharp Bihar, caste equations and poll arithmetic are a crucial count. The other diverse viewpoint is the OBC-Dalit tilt is seen perceptibly towards RJD, while it has also broken the Kurmi-Koeri bond held tightly so far by Nitish Kumar. In that sense, the gains should come.

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As per the latest caste census of Bihar, the population of Muslims and Yadavs is 31 percent while that of Bahujan is 21 percent. By coining the term BAAP, Tejashwi Yadav, Lalu’s son and heir apparent, has tried to broaden his sweep.

Lalu Yadav, in his time, knew how to move the needle on caste equations. His initial tirade was directed at  Bhumihar, Rajput, Brahmin and Lala. He used to rely more on his core vote bank M-Y (Muslim-Yadav). But Tejashwi has been changing the equations followed during the rule of Lalu-Rabri.

Tejashwi, in fact, described RJD as a party of MY as well as BAAP (father).

For Lalu Yadav’s MY equation, Seemanchal of Bihar has always been the epicentre of his political experiments. There are 4 Lok Sabha seats in Seemanchal, and 24 assembly seats. Nearly 60 lakh Muslim voters play a key role in this area. There are also a good number of Yadav voters in this area.

Tejashwi has been keen to shed the Muslim-Yadav tag for RJD crafted by his father in the early 1990s to carve out the significant vote bank in his favour. Muslims constitute around 17.7 percent and Yadavs 14.26 percent of the state’s population of more than 13 crore. Their support was crucial in keeping RJD in power in the state for 15 years till early 2005.

Tejashwi wants to consolidate his image as the next big political leader in Bihar and get a head start on both the JD(U) and the BJP. He has been drum-beating how during the 2020 Bihar Assembly election campaign RJD promised to generate 10 lakh jobs. And while in government for 17 months, “created almost 4 lakh jobs.”

The RJD has become a major political force in Bihar. But since its success in the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls, the RJD has been trying to expand its base.

From 2014 to 2019, caste-based voting patterns in Lok Sabha elections changed dramatically.

Data from the National Election Studies Post-Poll Survey indicates the United Progressive Alliance losing its grip on its traditional voter base in 2019. The Yadav’s support for the UPA dropped from 65 percent to 44 percent — a big decline.  The UPA also faced setbacks among Dalits and non-Yadav OBC voters.

The NDA kept ticking boxes in several caste groups. Support from Kurmi and Koeri voters surged from 27 percent in 2014 to 79 percent in 2019. Similar hikes were noticed among other OBCs and Dusadh castes, with the NDA's support rising from 53 percent to 80 percent and 68 percent to 88 percent, respectively.

The alliance also made modest gains among upper-caste voters, increasing from 77 percent to 79 percent.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections threw up some interesting pointers:

·  Surge in vote share, with winners averaging 53.27 percent, a big spiral from 41.03 percent in 2014, and 39.88 percent in 2009.

·   Voters chose fewer parties, on the back of smarter political strategies, stronger alliances, or new loyalties.

·   The average victory margin in 2019 rose to 21.49 percent, up from 11.38 percent in 2014 and 11.83 percent in 2009.

·   Candidates won more convincingly, likely due to effective campaign strategies.

The caste survey in Bihar revealed the OBCs (Other Backward Classes) and EBCs (Extreme Backward Classes) constitute a whopping 63 percent of the state’s total population. This would undeniably leave its impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha poll results. Bihar’s total population is a little above 13.07 crore.

Dalits, also known as Scheduled Castes (SCs) accounted for 19.65 percent and the Scheduled Tribes (STs) 1.68 percent. The general (unreserved) category comprises 15.52 percent of the total population in the state.

Yadavs, the OBC group and the community to which Lalu and Tejashwi belong constitute 14.27 percent of the state’s population. Brahmins make up 3.66 percent, Musahars 3 percent, Kurmis 2.87 percent and Bhumihars 2.86 percent.

Also Read | How Lalu pushes Congress on the backfoot in Bihar

Bihar, being a politically charged state, promises to showcase an interesting battle in the Lok Sabha elections, especially with Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan back in the NDA.

In the 2019 general elections, the BJP-JDU alliance had won 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, leaving the RJD stunned. The lone seat won by Congress in the state was in Kishanganj.

The caste census has been on the Opposition agenda for long with parties like Congress, and Samajwadi Party advocating in its favour. They have called for a nationwide caste census, a move which the BJP has opposed time and again, in Bihar and at the national level. Rahul Gandhi termed the caste census an “X-ray of India”.

The BJP has cited "technical reasons" behind not conducting a caste census.

Now with the caste survey in Bihar out in the open, Opposition-ruled states may follow suit.

Tejashwi explained that the RJD was more than a party of Muslims and Yadavs even in terms of social combinations. “People say RJD is M-Y party. But let me tell you we have BAAP along with M-Y. BAAP stands for ‘Bahujan, Agda (forward castes), Aadhi Aabadi (women), and Poor. We are an A-Z party,” he said.

This is a clear sign the son wants to leave the door wide open, while his father was happy leaving it slightly ajar.