Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set for a third consecutive term in power as the BJP-led NDA will surpass its 2019 tally but fall short of its ambitious 400-paar target, according to the News18 mega exit poll.
The News18 exit poll has predicted 355-370 seats for NDA, higher than its 2019 tally of 353. For BJP alone, it has predicted 303-315 seats.
Exit poll results 2024: Highlights
Meanwhile, the opposition bloc INDIA, which includes Congress, will fail to pull off an upset in the Lok Sabha elections and win just 125-140 seats in the lower house, the exit poll said.
Congress will win 62-72 seats in the elections, in a slight improvement from its 2019 tally, but hardly enough to make a difference, it predicted.
The exit poll has predicted greenshoots for BJP in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the party is looking to make inroads, besides overall gains in the remaining southern states.
Similarly, it said that BJP will trounce TMC in Bengal and BJD in Odisha to emerge as the single-largest party in both the states in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Notably, the exit poll has predicted that BJP will corner nearly 40% of the total votes, an improvement of about 2 percentage points compared to 2019. Congress will get 20% of the votes, it said.
Here are the state-wise exit poll predictions:
Uttar Pradesh
The BJP-led NDA is set to dominate the most crucial political state, winning 68-71 out of the 80 seats, according to the News18 exit poll.
The INDIA alliance of Samajwadi Party and Congress will only manage 9-12 seats while the Mayawati-led BSP, which is contesting on its own, is expected to draw a blank, it said.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had won a record 71 seats in UP while its ally Apna Dal (S) had won 2.
In 2019, the seat share dropped marginally, with BJP winning 62 seats and Apna Dal (S) bagging 2.
Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, the News18 exit poll has predicted that the Mahayuti alliance of BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP will win 32-35 of the 48 seats while the Maha Vikas Agadhi will win 15-18 constituencies.
This will be a slight dip for the NDA in the politically crucial state which is witnessing a fight between alliances and factions. The BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP are part of the ruling Mahayuti alliance while the Maha Vikas Aghadi comprises Congress, NCP (SC) and Shiv Sena (UBT).
In the previous Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, BJP had won 23 of the 48 seats in the state while its ally Shiv Sena secured 18 seats. The opposition NCP won 4 seats while Congress managed to bag just 1.
The political landscape of Maharashtra saw a major re-alignment in the last five years due to the vertical split in both Shiv Sena and NCP, the major regional parties.
Shiv Sena walked out of the NDA shortly after the assembly elections in 2019 and formed a government with NCP and Congress. However, a rebel faction under Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde caused a collapse in the government in 2022 and formed a fresh one with BJP.
In 2023, NCP saw a similar rebellion with Sharad Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar and his supporters lending support to the BJP-Shiv Sena government in the state.
West Bengal
It's saffron surge in West Bengal, according to the exit poll.
The News18 exit poll has predicted a jump in BJP's seat tally in West Bengal and a consequent decline for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC.
It has predicted that BJP will win 21-24 of the state's 42 seats while Mamata's party will get 18-21 seats.
If the predictions hold true, it will be the first time that BJP will emerge as the single largest party in the state.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, West Bengal saw an intense clash between TMC and BJP.
The Mamata Banerjee-led party won 22 of the 42 seats in 2019 while BJP secured 18 in a big improvement from just 2 in 2014.
On the other hand, Congress managed to win just 2 seats in West Bengal while the CPM-led Left, once a dominant political force in the state, scored a blank.
In 2024, TMC and Congress are contesting the elections separately after they failed to reach a seat-sharing deal in the state.
Bihar
In Bihar, the BJP-JD(U) alliance is projected to bag 31-34 out of the 40 seats in the state while the INDIA bloc - comprising RJD, Congress and other parties - is expected to win just 6-9 seats, the exit poll said.
In 2019, the NDA won 39 out of the 40 seats in the state.
In 2019, BJP and JD(U) fought the Lok Sabha alliance together. However, Nitish walked out of the NDA alliance in 2022 and formed a fresh state government with Congress and RJD. He returned to the NDA fold ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
Tamil Nadu
In the southern state, the DMK-Congress alliance is expected to win 36-39 out of the 39 seats in a near-repeat of its 2019 performance, according to the News18 exit polls.
BJP-led NDA, which is looking to make a breakthrough in the state, is projected to win 1-3 seats, as per the exit poll forecast.
AIAMDK is again expected to put up a lacklustre performance, and is likely to win just 0-2 seats, the exit poll predicted.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, DMK-Congress alliance had swept the general election in Tamil Nadu, winning 38 out of the 39 seats. The AIADMK managed to win just 1.
Karnataka
The NDA comprising BJP and JD(S) is set to dominate Karnataka, winning 23-26 out of the 28 seats, according to News18 exit poll predictions.
The Congress is expected to get just 3-7 seats, it said.
Karnataka is the only southern state where BJP has a strong foothold. In 2019, the saffron party won 25 out of the 28 seats while Congress and JD(S), who were then contesting together, managed to secure just one seat each.
The results were a big boost for BJP since the party had lost the state to Congress-JD(S) alliance in the 2018 assembly polls.
It later took power in Karnataka after the collapse of the Congress-JD(S) government but lost the 2023 elections in May.
Madhya Pradesh
According to the News18 exit poll, BJP is likely to clinch 26-29 seats in the Hindi heartland state while Congress may get 0-3 seats, the exit poll predicted.
In 2019 too, BJP won all but 1 seat in the state since the Congress managed to keep Chhindwara, the bastion of Kamal Nath, currently held by his son Nakul Nath.
Kerala
The News18 exit poll predicted that Congress-led UDF is expected to win 15-18 seats while the ruling LDF is expected to get 2-5.
Importantly, BJP may make a critical breakthrough in the state and win 1-3 seats, the exit poll said.
In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, UDF recorded a thumping victory in Kerala, securing 18 seats while the CM Pinaryi Vijayan-led alliance won just 2.
Punjab
In Punjab, which is witnessing a multi-cornered fight, the exit polls have predicted that Congress will emerge on top and win 8-10 out of the 13 seats in the state.
The elections will be a big setback for AAP, which wrested power from Congress in Punjab in 2022, since it will fail to win a single seat, the exit poll said.
Notably, BJP may win 2-4 seats in the state, according to the forecast.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress had won 8 seats in Punjab while the SAD-BJP secured victories in 4 constituencies.
Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana
According to the exit polls, BJP is expected to win 5-7 seats in Delhi while AAP-Congress alliance may win a seat or two.
In both 2014 and 2019, BJP had won all 7 seats in Delhi.
In Himachal Pradesh, BJP is again set to make a clean sweep with victories in all 4 seats, the exit poll has predicted.
However, the exit poll said that BJP may lose a few seats in Haryana. According to the exit poll, BJP will get 5-7 seats in the state while Congress will win 3-5. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, NDA had won all 10 seats in the northern state.
Uttarakhand
BJP will repeat its clean sweep of 2019 and win all 5 seats in Uttarakhand, the News18 exit poll has predicted.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls too, BJP won all 5 seats in the hill state. At 61%, its vote share was nearly double that of the Congress.
Gujarat
According to the exit poll, the BJP is again winning all 26 seats in Gujarat at an impressive vote share of 62%.
If the predictions hold true, this will be yet another clean sweep for BJP in the home state of PM Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah.
In both 2014 and 2019, BJP swept the polls in Gujarat, winning all 26 seats.
In 2019, BJP secured an impressive vote share of 62.2%, nearly twice that of Congress's 32%.
Andhra Pradesh
In a big boost to the recent alliance of BJP-TDP-Jana Sena alliance, the exit poll has predicted 19-22 seats for NDA out of the 25 constituencies in the seat.
It said that the Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress, which won a record mandate in 2019, will manage to win just 5-8 seats.
BJP, TDP and Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena recently formed an alliance for the Lok Sabha polls. Under the seat-sharing arrangement, TDP contested 17 seats, BJP 6 and Jana Sena 2.
In 2019, YSR Congress swept the elections in Andhra Pradesh, winning 22 of the state's 25 seats. Reddy's party also won the assembly elections that were held along with the Lok Sabha polls.
The Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP won just 3 seats, a decline of 12 compared to 2014.
Telangana
The exit poll has predicted big wins for BJP, with the saffron party set to get 7-10 out of the 17 seats in the states.
It forecast 5-8 seats for Congress and just 2-5 for BRS.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the K Chandrashekar Rao-led TRS won 9 out of the 17 seats in Telangana and BJP secured 4.
The Congress and AIMIM won 3 and 1 seats respectively.
Rajasthan
As per the News18 exit poll, there will be no clean sweep for BJP but the party will manage 18-23 out of the 25 seats in the state.
Congress may win 2-7 seats in a slight improvement compared to 2014 and 2019, the exit poll predicted.
The Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan were held months after BJP returned to power in the state after the November 2023 assembly elections.
In the previous general election, BJP-led NDA had made a clean sweep in the state, winning all 25 seats. It secured an impressive vote share of 59%.
On the other hand, Congress drew a blank in Rajasthan for second time in a row.
Odisha
The News18 exit poll predicted that BJP is exptected to win 13-15 out of 21 seats while the ruling BJD will get just 6-8.
If the predictions hold, it will be a big blow to the Naveen Patnaik-led party which has been the dominant player in the state.
Odisha has been witnessing an intense power tussle between the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD and BJP over the last few years.
In 2019, the ruling BJD won 12 out of the 20 seats in the state while the BJP improved its seat share tally from just 1 in 2014 to 8 in 2019.
Jharkhand
In Jharkhand, the News18 exit poll has predicted that BJP-led NDA will win 9-12 out of the 14 seats in the state while Congress-JMM alliance will get 2-5
In the previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won 12 of the state's 14 seats while Congress-JMM won one seat each.
Of the NDA's share, the BJP won 11 seats while its ally AJSU won 1.
The Lok Sabha elections took place in the state amid political turmoil after Hemant Soren had to step aside as the chief minister following his arrest in a money laundering case.
He was replaced by Champai Soren, who has managed to hold on to power after winning the floor test earlier this year.
Chhattisgarh
The News18 exit poll has predicted that BJP will again get 9-11 seats in the state which sends 11 members to Lok Sabha.
In 2023, BJP had wrested power from Congress in the tribal-dominated state.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had put up an impressive performance in the Hindi heartland state, winning 9 out of the 11 seats. The Congress won the remaining 2.
Assam
According to the News18 exit poll, BJP is set to secure 10-13 out of the 14 seats in the state, improving its 2019 tally.
The Congress-led INDIA will get 2-5 seats while other regional outfits will fail to make an impact, it said.
In 2019, BJP won 9 out of the 14 seats in the northeastern state while Congress bagged 3. The Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF won 1.
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